Katarzyna Przyborska: It is the anniversary of the elections in which we managed to postpone population power, but you can't see Christmas on the streets. We lost the chance to add an crucial date to the pantheon of Polish democratic holidays.
Przemysław Sadura: What's to celebrate erstwhile the government's actions are underrated? This could be expected: the government is doomed to deficiency cooperation with the President, so its perpetration is limited.
How does it affect the electorates of winnings and losers?
P.S.: The problem is that we have electoral demotion. People experience negative emotions that, in the case of electorates of democratic parties, take the form of disappointment and are demobilizing, contrary to PiS and Confederate voters who declare angry and afraid. These are negative emotions, too, but those that are politically mobilizing. Prime Minister Tusk is simply a large politician, but a mediocre sociologist, he was incorrect erstwhile he said there was any generation on October 15. That's why we're not celebrating.
Sławomir Sierakowski: I wouldn't say Tusk is simply a bad sociologist, he felt good social sentiment after the pandemic, after the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, he besides felt well Anti-refugee moodswhich are present in all electorate, and reacts very rapidly to them. In this sense, it can be said that it frequently precedes sociological research.
When, on the occasion of earlier reports, we asked Poles about what a politician should be like after a pandemic or the outbreak of war, it turned out that it should be a therapist, 1 who will enter among people, will give them a sense of security, a feeling that he controls the situation – and Tusk was doing well. The same was actual of floods.
The commitment to politics must not proceed at the same level. But it can be seen that before the presidential election, a democratic party's effort will be needed to mobilize the electorate again. And power, as you already signal in the title of the Political Critic Institute report, is in crisis.
S.S.: The Citizens' Coalition is good, the coalitions are bad and this is the origin of the power crisis. The Confederacy is very good. In general, we are dealing with the consolidation of 3 blocks, with 2 being undemocratic, and on the first anniversary of the 15 October elections, the situation is indeed bad. However, the study ends with a happy end, present the chance and this government and liberal-democratic Poland is Rafał Trzaskowski, who achieves a fantastic, uncompetitive consequence in our report.
Is this mess and block clotting the consequence that Tusk decided to be a hegemon on the political phase and minimize the Coalicism? It grabs the left-wing slogans, but besides supports farmers' opposition to the Green Deal, besides supported opposition to the migration pact without even trying to explain what it is.
S.S.: All Europe criticises Green DealAnd against migrants is even the electorate of the Civic Coalition.
P.S.: Tusk as a politician is indeed standing in a somewhat extremist position. The Prime Minister is not my favourite hero, but he shows strength and firmness, due to the fact that Poles anticipate it. He was a run therapist, and after the election he plays the function of a Tsar. He calls for a board of ministers, a staffer of them as needed – this is an answer to the actual request and this works due to the fact that the fanatical electorate Platform swells up. It's already much bigger than the PiS has always had in history.
Except it's inactive 50-50 a year after the election.
P.S.: Tusk can't take the PiS voters, polarization has divided the country into 2 sub-socialities, where flows barely exist. In a situation where the difference between the KO and the PiS falls within the limits of statistical mistake and we do not truly know who is driving, it is crucial to increase Confederate quotations. At this point the Mentzen and Bosaka organization takes the same amount, if not more, as partners of the civilian Coalition combined. So the parliament majority would have the PiS with the Confederacy.
Before the parliamentary elections, the Confederate was besides threatened, but the results were not as advanced as in the case of the far right in another European countries.
P.S.: There is now no hope that the support for the Confederacy will fall as it did last year. The Confederacy is now acquiring a voter who has voted for the Law and Justice but is disappointed by the scale of abuse. The PiS does not lose fanatical and cynical voters, those who vote for their own benefit. These proceed to believe that the full social, even the 1 introduced by the fresh government, is the merit of the Kaczyński Party. The Kaczyński organization loses the skeptical electorate, who voted for them as a organization of lesser evil and now passes to the Confederation. We have the consistency of a conservative, traditionalist profile, rather different from last year, erstwhile the Confederacy brought together Liberal voters for the moment, who joined only for taxation reasons.
It is besides evident from these data on the presidential election that if the Confederacy had not decided that Mentzen would be their candidate, but had put Bosak on it, he could have messed up a lot. He is simply a politician whose power of attraction goes across all social divisions and besides crosses the boundaries between sub-socialities.
In fact, this performance, which the Coalition put on on 15 October – with accounting, return to the regulation of law – is the most powerful builder of Confederate voters.
S.S.: Indeed, the beneficiary of the accounting of the Law and Justice will be the Confederation, due to the fact that it offers specified a fairer right, it now has a coherent, Eurosceptic base of views and, of course, it is besides a beneficiary of marazmus, which results from presidential blockade. The PiS-Confederation block will surely not decrease, at most the proportions between both parties can change. In turn, the democratic block is very dependent on the consequence of Rafał Trzaskowski.
Two weeks before the anniversary, the Left had a convention in which it tried to overcome interior confusion, and Poland 2050 had 1 on which it apologized to voters for the coalition with PSL. The coalition on October 15 is simply a mess, and the right side is reinforced, which precisely corresponds to your investigation results, due to the fact that these emotions concern voters as well as activists of individual groups.
S.S.: We call it the decomposition of electorates to the government. The hoarding is moving distant from its electorate, which is much more liberal. PSL is simply a PSL, there will always be a problem with it, due to the fact that it will block progressive changes. On the Left we are inactive dealing with a leadership that has a man's face, not a woman's, the Left besides included ministries that are not very effective erstwhile it comes to getting fresh voters.
So the problem is mediocre leadership on the coalition side, or is it that Donald Tusk is simply a small hard on his coalition?
P.S.: Both. Indeed, we have a crisis of image and leadership in the Left. The left-wing voter seems to have the worst of all voters in Poland, due to the fact that he does not know who he is voting for. The majority did not registry the fact that Together did not support the government, that it is separate. In addition, they have a problem with what the fresh Left is, that is, where the Spring is, where the SLD has gone.
We have long said that investigation shows that alternatively of 3 weak leaders there should be 1 strong leader who would actually show the female face of the Left. So is the 3rd Way. Holownia apologizes for PSL, PSL apologizes for Holownia. From the beginning it was an exotic alliance, but at least Kosiniak-Kamish was liked by the voters of Holown. Now it's over.
And the Holovnia, and the Left, gotta compete in the presidential election so they don't disappear.
P.S.: If the Holownia doesn't take off, it'll be the end of his project. In turn, it will make a mediocre result, so it will not gain much from it either. The left must put forward a candidate, or in fact a candidate, who, however, is simply a bit of a pity, due to the fact that he will not make a good consequence by moving against Trzaskowski, on which the electorate of the Left will vote in the first round.
S.S.: Tusk is fundamentally the policy most integrating this government and a lot making certain this coalition doesn't break up. He knows that if he eats all of these appetizers, it could turn against him. So as in the run before the election itself, he said that whoever has views another than Platform, let him vote for the 3rd Way, thanks to Tusk the 3rd Way made a good result. Today, however, it is hard for a politician to accuse him of wanting his organization to grow. It's like not knowing what politics is.
But he's not only the leader of his party, he's the leader of the coalition.
S.S.: Tusk is simply a political strategy and we will see which way he will play, due to the fact that he would gotta go out over 40% of the support of the PO itself so that this eating of the appetizers would yet not lead to the collapse of the government in subsequent parliamentary elections. However, these will not be held until 3 years from now, and the presidential elections at this time can change a lot. Yet, as Przemek rightly pointed out, it is hard to imagine that they will work in favour of the Left or the 3rd Way. In this sense, the Tusk plan is risky, but not impossible or irrational.
But in order for a candidate or candidate to be president of a coalition organization to win, it would be useful to mobilise those groups that are demobilized in your research. That is, women, civilian society, people dealing with human rights, young people for whom partnership, climate and the future are important. Will the Prime Minister be able to mobilize them, or do you see any chance of the Left being able to take over?
P.S.: Anyone who is simply a politician who believes in human rights is now experiencing an unheard interior drama associated with the fact that social sentiments are what they are. As erstwhile an older part of society at 1 point stopped following a change related to laicisation, which triggered backlash in the form of mobilization of a traditionalist electorate that did not dominate numerically, but appeared at the ballot boxes.
We have not noticed the pace at which we are changing from a society which, however, as monoethnic was a unique European society to a multicultural society. There is no another country that has adopted so large in fresh years groups of immigrants, refugees.
People stopped following it. And the moods are that if the Left at this point were to become a human rights advocate, a exile lawyer, it would inactive minimize its mediocre outcome. The drama is that even the left-wing electorate at this point is in favour of tightening migration policy. but that I am not talking about Warsaw students and intellectuals, due to the fact that we did interviews with the Left election in Włocławek.
There's no good solution. At this point, it is only a substance of how anti-migration policy will be.
I would return to the Left for a moment, which has a ministry of digitization, science, work and equality. Contrary to what you are saying, it seems that these are good fronts to make left-wing policies in contact with curious environments, and here are the problems.
S.S.: The left says something present that will be realized in 3 years. This has been the case so far, and the glory to the Left, which I treat a small like pioneers or pioneers of change, and that's all right, and I'm not afraid of this result. Of course, it is crucial that she be in Parliament to be strong there, but at the minute it is not possible. The left is losing the track due to the fact that it's betting on the future. specified a party, which even if it revolved around 7–10 percent and never in the foreseeable future of this threshold did not exceed, but nevertheless threw ideas that are not politically sellable today, but the day after next day will be, this is simply a organization that I think past will appreciate.
P.S.: There's 1 real problem for the Left. We talked earlier about the Confederacy being in a comfortable position, that it doesn't gotta do much and get gifts. And another gift from the PiS she got was an unfortunate taxation exemption for people under the age of 26. The Law and Justice Service did not benefit from it, but the Confederacy gained due to the fact that all those young voters who go to the Confederacy say: why did we turn 26 and now gotta pay taxes? It needs to be extended to 30, 35, 40 years. Why should we even pay taxes? It undermines the left's ability to act, due to the fact that if anyone talks about taxes, they are immediately scattered.
Now let us think of these consequences, besides in the form of an anti-immigrant attack. We are already watching them: on the streets of different cities there are self-appointed gangs that intimidate migrants. A strong anti-immigrant voice will most likely besides bring the support of the Confederacy. Is it not that entering mainstream ideas until late embarrassing and marginalised, and so it will yet become a fuel for the Confederate?
P.S.: We were accused of reporting Poland behind Ukraine but against Ukrainians We're doing black vision. And I already felt like I was doing investigation in northern England right before the brexit. I remember the moods there, how I was treated as a Pole, a individual speaking with a Polish accent. It is now in Poland, and since our study these moods have escalated. We're truly in precisely the same situation as northern England before brexit, and it's time to think about it somehow.
I understand, Tusk, that he is continuing to prosecute this strategy that we ourselves have advanced to put on the mask of populism and thus fight populists.
But didn't that mask grow permanently?
P.S.: We don't know that. The presidential election will be a large "check". If KO is incapable to accomplish anything but bid on populism, they will never win for populism with PiS and the Confederacy.
S.S.: I agree with you, just remember 1 thing: Tusk is simply a very firm politician precisely so that voters frightened of migration do not flee to the Confederation. The Law and Justice Department protects itself from this threat so that it connects with Sovereign Poland. It is precisely to guarantee that the anti-EU electorate, anti-refugee, does not flee to the Confederation. In the present Polish society, no another calculation is possible.
In your investigation you found that Poles dream of Poland strong, safe, speaking with a strong voice in Europe. But without strong institutions and politicians it is impossible to build specified a country. Is behind this Donald Tusk show, which is everywhere, taking care of everything, scolding and placing co-workers in the vertical, they are actually being rebuilt?
P.S.: At this point, there are no signs of preparations to reorganise public service transportation systems. You can't see it at all. And I'm a small amazed due to the fact that these dreams should be answered.
What is at this point a ball and chain in assessing the government's work? First of all, people don't see the standard of surviving growing. They're talking about stagnation or this standard of surviving is falling. The same is actual of key public services. It was known that this year might have been a loss, but it was essential to be better prepared to manage the regulations and to usage this time to prepare reforms.
Because of my technological interests, I look closely at what MEN does, who deals with the postgraduate profile. After a pandemic, distant teaching, which lasted the longest in Poland in Europe, the spread of public education by a broken strike and education improvement of the Law and Justice and at the tragic state of intellectual wellness of children and young people, MEN's actions look like sticking a tiny patch to a large bleeding wound.
Unfortunately, in another departments it looks very similar. If this doesn't change after the presidential election, there's no chance of a dream coming true.
For now, we are optimistic, although of course much can happen here too, there is simply a possible for a game of changers, for example, if at the last minute the Confederate had put on Krzysztof Bosak. Now Trzaskowski has no 1 to lose to.
In clinical trials, More in common OutFifty-fifty. Most liberal-democratic voters see advancement in the improvement of public services and most conservative voters in large ventures, specified as the atom or the CPK. Rafał Trzaskowski first came out at the last PO convention, talking about civilian society, about local governments, about services. Then came Radosław Sikorski with a imagination of a strong army and a "triskoku" in the field of railways and aircraft. Your investigation shows that you gotta bet on Trzaskowski, but are you certain this is the only alternate to elections?
S.S.: Studies clearly show that there is no alternate for Rafał Trzaskowski today. Game changer could be Krzysztof Bosak, or youtuber Krzysztof Stanowski. I'm certain you gotta look at a 3rd candidate who will substance as a vote transferor from 1 block to another. specified a politician was Andrzej Lepper, who moved the votes to Kaczyński, or Kukiz, who besides cut any votes from the democratic block and moved them to Duda. Unfortunately, specified a game was also, in a sense, the Holovnia, which did not support Trzaskovsky in the second circular of elections.
Do Poles anticipate major modernisation projects or reforms? This is what our book said: that if Poles believed in the state more, they would most likely anticipate reforms. It's a bit like Russia – if individual believed that corruption could be eliminated, Navalny would have 50% support, not 5. A lot depends on what people think is possible.
But the aspirations of Poles have increased in fresh years.
S.S.: That's why Tusk is trying to marry 1 another. He did not retreat from the CPK or the atom, he submitted a draft of the games in Warsaw. This is tailored to the expectations of Poles, due to the fact that they simply want specified things. This is besides a country that already sees Western Europe on the horizon and tries to catch up, first symbolically. If he believed in the anticipation of reforming public services, he'd most likely want it. But NFZ is more of a joke, so let's be realistic.
These studies teach us to a large degree realism. We perceive to Poles and quote them to free ourselves of many illusions. In general, I believe that making modernisation projects attractive to the public sphere is simply a task for NGOs, journalists, people of culture, intellectuals. But the government should actively support this. I am not saying that this is not the task of the state, but in specified a society, unfortunately, it is to a large degree the function of intelligence, not politicians who will do so erstwhile we make it crucial and obvious.
P.S.: Agreed, only with 1 difference. In my opinion, the Citizen's Coalition and Tusk imaged these modernisation issues at first. They did not retreat from the CPK, but in specified a way that the majority of voters believe they tried to retreat and do not know what was going on. Morawiecki created a imagination of Poland's development, referring a small to the inter-war 20th anniversary, and it's a large game, and unfortunately, the Civic Coalition is losing this issue for now, and must work on it.
And as for Sikorski, it would be perfect if we had a vice president, like in the American system. Trzaskowski and Sikorski together are complementary. The only major deficiency of the image of Trzaskowski is that he is not associated with the army and defence, and is to be president during the war. And Sikorski has large experience in global and defence policy and could be a very crucial individual in the Trzask campaign.
S.S.: Rafał Trzaskowski has experience, he was a Euro MP, Deputy Minister of abroad Affairs, he has a PhD in global policy, so experience is adequate for him, while as president of Warsaw, he has alternatively image deficits.
But the presidential election is simply a small plebiscite for charisma. Therefore, Sikorski seems the perfect candidate for hard times.
S.S.: Surely we should not ask Sikorski to step down before the game. He has the full right, and in peculiar the experience that makes him always a natural presidential candidate. And he'd be a very good president. So there is competition in KO. Sikorski, like Trzaskowski, is simply a politician of super heavyweight. The second specified minister, and at the same time an influential intellectual, associate of the Board of Directors of the Munich safety Conference, will not be found in Poland. We besides don't know what it would look like to support him if KO reported him as president, due to the fact that for now people presume it would be Trzaskowski. 1 can be enjoyed if he takes office.
