The Law and Justice is clearly incapable to cope with the failure of power. Like late revealed ‘Gazeta Wyborcza’, in January, to realize what actually happened, Marek Kuchciński invited a group of experts to the meeting, who formulated a diagnosis of the failure of the PiS and recommendations for local elections. Many of these diagnoses are correct. Kuchciński's experts, however, do not see a proverbial elephant in the room: a problem with Kaczyński's leadership in the party.
Kaczyński wine
Experts indicate ‘Animal five’, the judgement of the Court of Malta on abortion, the ignoring of technological change and the fact that more and more voters, especially young people, are getting information not from tv but from the Internet. Finally, the incorrect focus on utmost polarity and attacks on Tusk. Jarosław Kaczyński is liable for each of these decisions and his limitations as a leader are manifested in each decision.
The 5 for animals and the abortion conviction of the TK are above all evidence of how much Kaczyński lost his ability to read social sentiments correctly in fresh years. In the case of the "five" of its own electorate, and in 1 of the key to the success of the Law and Justice Groups, in the case of the judgement of the Constitutional Tribunal of the full society.
In 2007, Kaczyński dropped Mark Jurek's project, attempting to enter a applicable abortion ban into the constitution. He did so on the basis that there was no social consent to further tightening of existing regulations in Poland, which could consequence in a large mobilisation of the non-right-wing electorate. The leader of the Law and Justice organization understood the moods much more conservative than the present society, where 2 years after the death of John Paul II The Catholic Church with its “learning” on the “defence of conceived life” had incomparably greater influence than in 2020.
It is all the more meaningful that almost 4 years ago, the president of the Law and Justice found that the green light for the removal of the "eugenical message" from the abortion bill by the Constitutional Court in order to calm the unconsoled after 5 for the animals of the conservative wing of the organization – due to the fact that this was expected to be the main reason for this decision – is simply a good idea. He acted as though he had not noticed the social change that had taken place in Poland since 2007 and the increasing frustration that had been closed in the lockdown society, which needed only sparks to explode. erstwhile this detonation occurred, the president of the Law and Justice organization proved to be completely communist and politically helpless towards him, the most eloquent example of which was a curiosity recording, in which he called on his sympathizers to “protect churches” from protesting women.
Obsessions of the organization leader program
Also ignoring another channels of communication outside TVP and the run based on attacks on Tusk and polarization revealed individual obsessions and idiosyncrasies of the president, which became a organization program.
Kaczyński is simply a man of the 20th century, formed in the PRL era erstwhile tv was the primary mass media. Throughout his political activities, he was guided by the belief that he who had tv had power. He assumed that fundamentally people in Poland – especially the older, more plebeic electorate, on which the support of the Law and Justice is based – treats what tv shows as reality. Therefore, both his governments in 2005 and 2015, he began by taking over public television, and that's why PiS so hysterically tried to defend himself against changes in this institution in December 2023.
However, as the investigation showed, even the PiS electorate with any skepticism approached the propaganda present in TVP, and the increasing audiences – not only those young, but besides middle-aged – turned at all from linear tv or the press, drawing information primarily from the Internet, especially from social media. According to PiS experts, the party, meanwhile, was either absent in this space or repeated the extremist transmission of TVP in it, scaring off more average voters.
Kaczyński's individual obsessions most mastered the organization in her message about Donald Tusk. The fall run of 2023 showed that Kaczyński in the face of Tusk loses all his political cunning and rationality, is incapable to control his own aggression, focused on an opponent who he believes should be excluded from average democratic rivalry, and fails to announcement another political threats.
According to reports from Nowogrodzka Kaczyński was to be very pleased after the pre-election debate of organization leaders on TVP, convinced that Tusk lost it. The leader of the KO did not do well at the time, but the undisputed winner of the debate turned out to be Loin, which surely contributed to the good result of the 3rd Way and yet buried the chances of the Law and Justice for the 3rd term. PiS, following its leader, did not see the threat of Holown until he was elected Marshal of the Sejm.
In conclusion, PiS would not have committed key, cost-effective errors if it had previously successfully succeeded or if the character of Kaczyński's power in the organization had not been so absolute if organization politics had not shaped individual obsessions and extravagances of the president.
With Kaczyński at the head of the PiS he will not catch up with the fleeing electorate
One of the interesting ones that appeared in the memo from the expert gathering is that the Law and Justice could have been a victim of their own success. The party's social policy combined with a period of large prosperity, especially in 2015-19, contributed to the material promotion of broad groups of its voters. any of them felt mediate class in effect and began to aspire to her lifestyle, including political choices. People who, if not thanks, were surely promoted to mediate class in the days of the Law and Justice Government to feel that they had full experienced social promotion, were to begin to consider voting for the more associated coalition parties 15.10. This thesis evidently requires examination. But it seems rather likely. akin mechanisms are observed in many democracies.
According to Kuchciński experts, the social structure is besides changing in Poland. The number of groups in which support for PiS has always been statistically higher than average – as Farmers – but those who in fresh years the organization has been incapable to scope with its message, like entrepreneurs and fresh intelligence.
Demography does not should be a politically decisive factor, as was frequently seen by even American Democrats who in the 1990s hoped that the expanding diversity of American society would permanently marginalize the Republican Party. However, the parties are able to evolve with the demography of their voters – as well as with their social promotion – but this requires flexibility, the ability to adapt the transmission, the acquisition of fresh postulates and the abandonment of old, obsolete circumstances.
With Kaczyński at the head of specified adaptation, allowing to catch contact with the fleeing electorate, seems impossible. The president admitted in his first speech after the losing election that society had changed and the PiS had to change if he wanted to win, but for the next 5 months he showed that he was incapable to make specified a change.
Even if the organization changes its language to 1 that will let it again even to enter into a conversation with individual another than the shrinking iron electorate, Kaczyński at the head will undermine the credibility of this change.
This was clearly excellent during the party's local government convention of 2 March. It was led by 2 very young activists, the event started with a video show in which their peers talked about crucial communities where they mix, local investments. The talker immediately afterwards looked especially old and out of place.
...without Kaczyński, he'll most likely fall apart.
Kuchciński's experts are so correct in diagnosing the causes of the problems of the Law and Justice, but are incapable to identify the main origin – the Kaczyński leadership. At the same time, successful succession in the organization may not be possible – even if the current president expressed his will or physically could no longer direct the group.
The Law and Justice has present become a collection of very different right-wings, which have small in common, apart from Kaczyński's leadership and, until recently, joint participation in various kinds of power fructs. This is best illustrated by European policy. In today's Law and Justice, we have both the right hand, which could actually fit close to the mainstream of European policy, which is compatible with its pillars specified as Green Deal whether the post-covid Reconstruction Fund, as well as the right looking at the Union's mainstream policy as a large threat to Poland, as Russian imperialism, if not greater. No reasonable average can be drawn from these 2 positions, giving a coherent basis for the operation of the party.
European policy is not the only area in which the Law and Justice Office has specified a problem. So if the organization lacks a very different Kaczyński right hand, the full can start to fall apart.
President Kaczyński created the PiS from scratch, built 1 of the most effective parties of the last 4th of the century, gave it unprecedented in the past of the 3rd RP 8 years of independent power, but at the same time led to a state erstwhile the group is no longer able to fight effectively under its leadership for power, and at the same time he cannot afford to change the leader. The situation seems terrible, but 1 must remember that the end of the Law and Justice has already been announced many times, and Kaczyński has frequently proved to be king of political return. The question is whether the President's political happiness limit was exhausted around the 2020 presidential election.
