The polls for a long time show 1 thing: if right-wing forces truly want to push the liberal left from power, the only real script is the Coalition of the Law
and Justice with the Confederacy. There's just no another way today. The problem is that getting along with both formations is hard, with caution, distance, and, in any places, open hostility. It is hard to be surprised, due to the fact that the obstacles are not lacking: program differences, ambitions of leaders, political events, reluctance of electorates, and an unaccounted for wrongs.
Following Karol Nawrocki's triumph in the presidential election, the state was headed by a politician announcing the blocking of laws implementing the anti-Catholic and anti-national agenda of the cultural revolution. For many Catholics, this was a long - awaited signal of opposition — yet individual with a presidential veto willing to stand up for what is sacred and national. But Donald Tusk's reaction was fast and unceremonious: he announced that his government would find ways to circumvent the veto with proven methods — ministerial guidelines and regulations not requiring the signature of the head of state. You don't gotta look for examples for long. In abortion cases, Tusk sent a signal straight to the medical community: abortion based on individual and dubious psychiatric opinions? Relax, you're safe. Practice of facts made. This clearly shows that even the most determined president is incapable to halt the revolutionary march alone. A full change of government is needed.
But how do we do it? The independent return of the Law and Justice to power seems unrealistic today. This would only be possible if we returned to a level of support exceeding 40% — a reality 5 years ago. And there is small indication that specified a return is possible. The counterfactual script seems equally unlikely: that the Confederacy will overwhelm the PiS. Even during its periods of top polling increases, its support was halving lower than that which inactive holds the formation of Jarosław Kaczyński. In the face of this situation, the 2 formations divided up into "conciliators", looking at the position of the coalition with cautious optimism,
and “hawks”, determined to torpedo all beginning of cooperation.
ARRANGEMENTS
The settlers presume that cooperation is not so pleasant and desirable as inevitable. The deficiency of agreement means 1 thing: successive terms of Donald Tusk and further consolidation of his rule. Since the independent majority of either organization does not seem possible today, we must break the common distrust and focus on what unites, and the issues that divide us from the natural political rivalry that adults should not resent.
In the Confederacy, specified reasoning strengthens the realism of any leaders. The party, which is limited to the function of opposition reviewer, but never reaches out for hard power — even in an alliance — yet loses momentum and support. The past of parliamentary Poland seems to confirm this. It is besides worth recalling that already at the beginning of the Confederacy there was a concept of entering this group into the function of a “PiS icebreaker” — a strong right-wing coalitionist who would halt the drift of the United Right towards the center and force more extremist reforms, even through political blackmail.
Looking at the medially visible signals — which can, of course, be part of the game of appearances or the classical gameplay of “good and bad cop” — on the settlement side of the Law and Justice, you can find, among others, Przemysław Czarnek, Janusz Kowalski or Dariusz Matecki.
In the Confederacy, Krzysztof Bosak and Przemysław Wipler performed the closing gestures towards the United Right camp. However, even in these cases open declarations of cooperation are rare. It is no wonder that the fight for an electorate continues, and any specified announcement could cost political costs, especially in the face of strong factions of “hawks” on both sides. Group leaders realize this well. Jarosław Kaczyński had already cut off the anticipation of cooperation with the slogan “with Braun and Korwin surely not”. present this reservation has lost its status, and the unconditional pro-Ukrainian course of the PiS (except for president Duda) has been somewhat corrected, so as not to be the main point of inflammation in relations with the Confederate. At the same time, there are voices that “Chief” is inactive dreaming of returning to the solo game, hoping that he will decide to play again for the full stakes. But this could be part of a conscious leak. In turn Sławomir Mentzen plays a completely different game. He does everything to build his position as an equal partner, not a petent. Criticizes PiS ostentatically, without complexes. This can, of course, exacerbate the emotions in the electorate of the Kaczyński party, which is not meaningless — especially erstwhile the blade of criticism struck Karol Nawrocki, and this was at the delicate minute of the presidential campaign. From the point of view of future negotiations, however, this has a certain advantage: it reduces the hazard of being an "appetition" and strengthens the bargaining card. However, 1 "detail" should be mentioned: in the second circular of the Mentzen presidential election, despite erstwhile attacks, he called for his electorate to participate in the vote. This reconciled motion — made precisely erstwhile the state was weighed down — suggests that the door to conversation was not completely closed. On the contrary, possibly ostentatious distance from the Law and Justice is just part of a strategy to improve the conditions of the future coalition.
Conclusion? The motion game lasts at the best. Nothing has yet been determined — neither the coalition itself nor its lack, nor its shape. But 1 thing is certain: without the reconstruction of simple trust between the politicians and electorates of both parties, no script of the alliance on the right has a chance to come true. And that's gonna be hard. The "hawks" do not let go, regularly reminding each another of their resentments, betrayals and ideological differences. In their eyes, the common government is not an opportunity, but a hazard — for Poland, for ideas, for their own identity.
HOOTS
The PiS and Confederation have developed separate "information bubbles" and even political subcultures. Despite their declarative belonging to the right-wing camp, they do not penetrate 1 another very often. In combination with common demonization, this makes it hard to realize the position of a possible political partner. It is so worth looking at both perspectives and considering what conditions would should be met, so that the tensions between the parties could be at least partially alleviated — adequate to guarantee that the coalition script ceases to be considered political fantasy.
One of the main obstacles remains common distrust and suspicion. The Pisovian “hawks” believe that a crucial part of the present Confederation derives from Roman Giertych — a politician who, in their eyes, remains not only a traitor to the national idea, but a deadly enemy, co-responsible for arrests and possibly the death of people who are crucial to the environment. Hence the persistent suspicion that the Confederation is in fact a "hidden option of Tusk".
The confirmation of this thesis is sought, among others, in the erstwhile gathering of Sławomir Mentzen and Marian Banas — an event read by part of the PiS camp as an act of open declaration of war. In addition, any statements by Jack Wilk (many PiS supporters do not know that he is no longer a associate of the Confederate) or Stanisław Tyszko, as well as voices by libertarian wings suggesting the Confederate's proximity to the Civic Coalition, only deepening suspicion. Attempts to remind that Gierty is present 1 of the most vicious critics of the Confederate, and pro-KO voices in its ranks constitute a margin — they are seen as a manifestation of naivety or ignorance.
On the another hand, Confederate “hawks” see in the Law and Justice a formation betraying the ideals of the right, a organization that has succumbed to the European Union, quietly pursuing the agenda of federalization and giving up sovereignty. In this narrative, however, crucial facts are overlooked, specified as the long-term dispute between the Law and the EU institutions, including the usage of financial instruments as a means of force or the public support of Brussels for the then opposition (as well as the quiet for the 2017 parliamentary grotesque “spot”). Nor is the request to trust on a broad base of electorate, by nature more Euroenthusian than a niche, hard right. The origin of distrust is mostly selective media transmission of both groups, addressed to their own voters — which should not be amazing in the realities of democratic rivalry.
However, a closer look shows that suspicion in many places is not justified. After all, the political biography of specified characters as Krzysztof Bosak does not find their current choices — if this criterion were applied consistently, it would be essential to fishy Jarosław Kaczyński of his loyalty to Lech Wałęsa, whom he supported in the early 1990s. Politics is simply a space of dynamic change in which alliances are made and broken, and the younger generation of leaders frequently just builds their identity. On the another hand, PiS initiatives to build conservative alliances in Europe — sometimes called "right-wing internationalists" — must not be ignored, together with policies aimed at stopping the federalisation of the EU and returning to the thought of a Europe of nations.
The common distrust of both parties is frequently not a rational analysis, but a political emotion. The memory of the sharp attacks both parties directed towards each another in the past for many remains alive. Each of them has its own version of events: Confederates peculiarly remember TVP's ignoring of Jack Kurski, while “hawks” from the Law and Justice have not forgotten attempts to take over any local clubs of “Gazeta Polska” by Confederate activists. The argument about "who started" is simply a bit childish today, due to the fact that the logic of the organization strategy and democratic rivalry inevitably generates tensions and conflicts – even if the mention of dissensions did not occur, there would inevitably be others.
It is besides worth recalling the most striking examples of the confrontation of both parties: on the 1 hand, the accusations of pro-Russian agenthood, formulated against the Confederate by any PiS politicians and the media favorable to them; on the another hand, the action "Norymberg 2.0", suggesting the request to bring the leaders of the PiS to the tribunal, like war criminals. The stubborn emphasis on their own harms and forgetting about their own blows must lead to a deepening of the division — which, however, is somewhat silently trying to alleviate the “community”. However, it is crucial to realize that common aggression is not due to a simple division between "good" and "bad" but to the logic of fighting for a akin electorate.
However, an economical question remains 1 of the most serious points of the dispute. The prosocial PiS collides here with the free marketplace fresh Hope, which creates nonsubjective difficulty. The transition of the Law and Justice to liberal positions would mean the hazard of losing a crucial part of the social electorate, which is the foundation of their support. However, this image is worth to be nuanced. First of all, not all Confederate economical matters are more crucial than civilizational issues specified as life protection, national identity, the function of religion, or opposition to the LGBT movement. In these areas, the wings of both parties are closer than they seem. Secondly, there are besides more liberal economical environments in the Law and Justice. An example is Tobias Bocheński, as well as Przemysław Czarnek, whose economical views could gain the approval of Sławomir Mentzen or even Janusz Korwin-Mikke. Thirdly, the National Movement, which is 1 of the Confederate's wings, does not treat the state as "necessary evil" and, in any respects, as protecting national culture from globalist homogenization or large investment, could find a common language with the PiS. In this field too, despite the fundamental differences, there is area for serious discussion.
What are we doing?
Assuming Donald Tusk's government will last until the end of its term, it is expected that more than 2 years of difficult, gradual reaching of both camps, while masking attempts to build the foundations of the future alliance – trials that would immediately be utilized by the liberal left as a political weapon (which already makes Adrian Zandberg for example today). The result of this process remains unjudged, but 1 thing seems certain: all agreement and all motion of restraint in the rundown between the voters of both parties brings the position of the coalition closer. A coalition that appears to be a actual nightmare of the liberal left—which for many skeptics may be adequate reason to reconsider its reasonableness.
Louis Loop
