It is highly improbable that in the second circular of the presidential election a different pair of candidates than Karol Nawrocki and Rafał Trzaskowski. However, how further part of the presidential rate will be arranged can be decisive for the future of the Polish political scene.
In particular, Sławomir Mentzen's conviction may be affected – because, apart from the candidates of the PO-PiSu, he is simply a typical of the Confederacy playing in these elections at the highest stake.
If Mentzen takes a strong 3rd place, with a consequence close to 15% – a survey average The Confederacy present is 14 percent – both major parties recognise that they request the support of the Confederate and its voters to win in the second round. So both candidates will spend 2 weeks separating the first circular from the second 1 for the conflict to get into favor. Mentzena.
Besides, even now – 5 months before the elections – not only Nawrocki, but besides Trzaskowski run as if their strategical goal was to slow convince the Confederate electorate. It is hard to explain otherwise what the president of the capital proposed regarding the 800 plus limitation for Ukrainians. Before the second round, in the fight for as large a part as possible with a twelve percent Mentzen, Trzaskowski will most likely forget about any content applicable to progressive electoral.
The Confederacy depends on who will regulation Poland?
Whoever will yet support Mentzen and whoever will yet win, the Confederacy will be able to consider specified a concluded presidential election as its large success. Especially if you remember about the starts of Korwin-Mikke, where the ceiling was 2.5 percent support. The Confederacy, however, plays more: to become a organization after the parliamentary elections, without which it will not be possible to regulation in the 11th Parliament. The decisive force for deciding whether a coalition involving KO or PiS will be in charge of the government.
Mentzen's good consequence is simply a essential condition for this, but evidently not enough. The Confederation will gotta keep advanced support for 2 more years. The situation, erstwhile incapable to resolve its interior differences Coalition on October 15 fails to meet crucial promises for its voters, and the Law and Justice organization is inactive incapable to realize why in 2023 people thanked them with negative thanks for 8 years of government, will nevertheless favour the Confederation. Like the global ideological prosperity for the alt-right, reinforced by Trump's presidency and algorithmic X device Elon Musk.
If the Confederate retains his twelve percent of support until 2027 – or earlier elections, if for any reason they had happened – then the PiS may be forced into a movement which Kaczyński has tried to prevent in all way during the last 7 years: to recognise that there is another right-wing force to the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law of the Law and that it is essential to communicate with it somehow.
Whether Jarosław Kaczyński is capable of partnering with anyone is another issue – Andrzej Lepper and Jarosław Gowin supply examples that not very – but a good consequence of the Confederates and a scale of polarization divides the PiS and KO can force Kaczyński at least to effort to establish specified cooperation.
The scale of polarization is besides so large that for the removal of the Law and Justice from the power of the KO voters may in most cases be able to accept even a deal in which Tusk, Minister of Finance Mentzen, and Krzysztof Bosak takes the talker of the Sejm. If there were no independent organization left in the 11th Parliament, then the cordon, blocking the PiS coalition from Mentzen, by Kosiniak-Kamish after Tusk would not be an impossible scenario. Although for KO, with its electorate mostly identifying itself as left-wing, this would be a politically very hard move.
Braun's departure opens the way for the Confederate to mainstream
How does Confederate disintegration and Braun's independent start take place in these scenarios? The answer is complicated. Braun's long-term departure is good news for the Confederacy. Despite all its popularity and visibility, Braun was mostly a toxic asset for the Confederate. He collected a faithful, rather extreme, heavy mobilized electorate around him – thanks to which he won 113 000 votes and a second-place mandate in the elections to the European Parliament, ahead of Konrad Berkowicz.
At the same time, however, Braun was deterred from a organization of normicans who might have been persuaded by Mentzen's marketplace message or even by the powerfully right-wing content given by Bosak in a moderate, more distinguished form, but a MP extinguishing Khanuk candles with a fire extinguisher, physically smashing lectures of his disliked historians The demolition or demolition of the Christmas tree in the courthouse building, due to the fact that he saw European symbols on the ornaments, but it's besides much for them.
Braun with his openly pro-Russian views besides blocked Confederate coalition capacity. With Braun and Korwin-Mikke on board, the organization remained indigestible even for the PiS. Without Braun for this, even with any anti-Ukrainian and Eurosceptic – but not openly pro-Russian message – it can become acceptable even for KOs under certain concessions.
15 percent out of four
At the same time, Braun's start is simply a problem for Mentzen in the position of the presidential election. Braun's gonna cut off any 2 to 4 percent points of support. In addition, with a very akin electorate, Marek Jakubiak will fight, which means another tiny decrease, possibly by half or 1 percent point for Mentzen.
Krzysztof Stanowski besides joined the presidential race. It is not known whether the creator of Channel Zero will yet retreat before the first round, but if he does not do so, then Mentzen will teardrop off respective more percent points, and above all block his growth possible in the overall anti-systemic, discouraged by the conflict of PO-PiS, a non-left electorate.
In the end, these twelve percent that Mentzen could possibly take present can be divided into 4 candidates. Even if Mentzen will take the largest part of this electorate, it will mean something completely politically different from 17. Especially if Mentzen doesn't stand on the podium.
Mentzen's weak score can trigger conflicts within the Confederate. There will be voices that Bosak would have done better, and Mentzen laid down a key run for the second time after 2023. Distorted, corrupted by the mediocre results of the Confederacy, it can prove to the next parliamentary elections that support is akin to the current one, without its chances to play a decisive political function in the country.
As mercantical and cynical would not be Stanowski's motivation, weakening Mentzen does good work against right-wing populism. But even Gregory Braun can, in these elections, like the Faustian Mephistofeles, prove to be a force which, desiring, does good. I am not telling them to sign letters of support at erstwhile – especially under the program "church, school, range, fire extinguisher" it is hard to sign – but anyone who does not like the Confederacy's position as a tongue in the scales of the 11th word parliament should keep his fingers crossed for the candidates who fight for a akin electorate to be as many as possible and to cut Mentzen as much as possible.
