Only 2 candidates substance and the 3rd will decide to win

The authoritative presidential run has begun, and at least for now You can't say something very interesting is happening.There's no question about that. The full list of candidates is of small importance and, as always, the top tension occurred in the course of the inhibition of individual candidates: ‘to be or not to be president’. After announcing the loudest candidatures from the niche shelf: Braun and Stanowski, emotions spread across the bones only in a fewer days.

There were besides the first polls, yet without (anti)candidacy of Krzysztof Stanowski, but already with the participation of Grzegorz Braun, who received: 2.3 percent and 3 percent. On Friday, on the another hand, the latest survey was released and the black horse Stanowski does not pursuit the leaders, but closes the stake:

Survey: The best consequence in the survey of the National investigation Group was obtained by Rafał Trzaskowski. The candidate KO indicated 35.51 percent of respondents. Second place came to Charles Nawrock with 31.73 percent support. The 3rd is Sławomir Mentzen (15.68 percent). On Simon Hołownia he wants to vote 5.35% of the respondents. Behind the talker of the Sejm were Grzegorz Braun (3.37 percent) and Magdalena Biejat (3.14 percent). The following positions included: Krzysztof Stanowski (2.57%), Marek Jakubiak (2.13%) and Adrian Zandberg (0.52%). – quote from newspaper.pl

Are these amazing results? Depends on who, a full group of analysts promising mass flows of electorate to Stanowski and Braun, most likely feel surprised, but I don't think they'll talk about it publicly. On the another hand, sensible amateurs, who have been observing the Polish political scene for years, were almost certain that there was no second Kukiz from 2015 or Holownia from 2020 in these elections. In the game we have only 2 serious players and 1 who fights for 3rd place, and in fact does not fight due to the fact that there is no one. The 2 main members are, of course, Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, the 3rd being Sławomir Mentzen. specified a composition is not an accident, but simply a timely reflection of the political forces represented by candidates.

The consequence of Simon Holownia may be a small surprise, but only on condition that we do not collide with the above-mentioned organization result. The hoard is precisely the same place as his organization and coalition with the PSL. Who will become president won't decide "black horses" due to the fact that they just don't exist. The final triumph will depend on 2 factors, the first being the consequence of Trzaskowski and Nawrocki in the first round. If Karol Nawrocki gets close to Trzaskowski or overtakes him, he may be a sensational winner in the second round. This diagnosis has a strong binding in the realities and numbers, especially political realities and the number of votes cast on Sławomir Mentzen.

In Poland, the majority is inactive a right-wing and centre-right electorate, so Mentzen's votes should be taken by Karol Nawrocki in the vast majority. In addition, Nawrock can be helped by a very good relation with Confederate politicians who amazingly do not treat him like “PIS PO 1 evil”. What votes can Trzaskowski take? With this he will have a serious problem and although in theory, Trzaskowski practically takes everything, but Mentzen's electorate, it's a problem that all of this has respective percent each. And there is besides an electorate of PSL, which is simply a part of the electorate of Hołownia and these voters on Trzaskowski respond allergicly. In short, 2 giants will fight, and the 3rd on the podium will have a major impact on the results of the second round.

We don't believe in anyone, we don't believe in anything! We look at facts and draw conclusions!