Economists of Bank Pekao presented an analysis that cools blood in the veins. The global demographic crisis, which has been discussed for years, has intensified in a way that exceeds the darkest scenarios. This is no longer a distant forecast, but a real threat to the economical stableness of the planet and Poland. Social policy tools so far have proved to be completely ineffective, and the consequences of this helplessness will be felt all – in our wallets, wellness care systems and, worst of all, in pension systems. The study clearly shows that we are facing fundamental changes that will redefine the concept of prosperity and safety for the next decades. What happens before our eyes is an unprecedented phenomenon in human history, and its effects are only beginning to be visible.
"This is no longer a theory". Why have the forecasts so far failed?
For decades scientists have based their forecasts on a demographic transition model. He assumed that with increased wealth, increased education and career focus, fertility naturally falls. However, the current crisis completely contradicts these theories. The fall in births present affects not only rich countries, but besides lower income societies, which disturbs the order and knowing of population processes.
Analysts of Bank Pekao stress that the magnitude of the phenomenon observed over the last 15 years is alarming. The problem goes far beyond economical factors. The global nature of fertility decline suggests that its causes lie much deeper – in fundamental changes to systems of values, life priorities and in how modern societies specify success and self-fulfillment. This means that the problem cannot be solved by simple financial transfers or reliefs.
Governments helpless. Billions to support household do not work
It is peculiarly worrying that the demographic crisis has proved to be immune to all known forms of state intervention. Governments around the planet have spent billions of dollars on pro-family programs, but their results are, to put it mildly, disappointing. None of the tested models brought the expected breakthrough. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Examples are clear. France, for years set as a model for an effective household policy, has noted birth decline despite generous benefits. The Nordic countries, with their advanced parental leave and public childcare system, are besides facing declining fertility. Even Singapore, which offers large housing support to young couples, has 1 of the lowest birth rates in the world. Hungary, which implemented 1 of the most comprehensive family-friendly packages in Europe, recorded only marginal growthwhich is incapable to reverse the negative trend. This proves that conventional social policy tools have simply stopped working.
Economic tsunami. What are the real consequences for Poland and the world?
The long-term economical consequences of the decline in fertility will be fundamental to our lives. Although per capita income may proceed to grow, The pace of global economical growth will importantly slow down. The smaller population is little hands to work, which straight reduces the production possible of economies, especially in sectors specified as care, construction and agriculture.
Moreover, the decline in the population will hit innovation. less people are statistically little scientific, method and entrepreneurial talents. This means slower discovery and improvement of fresh technologieswhich are the engine of modern prosperity. Ageing societies will further exacerbate the problem – older populations are naturally little prone to hazard and entrepreneurship, which can lead to economical stagnation on an unprecedented scale.
The threat of insolvent states. Do we have a "Japanese screenplay" ahead of us?
One of the most serious threats is the sustainability of public finances. Today, most countries, including Poland, base debt management on the presumption that the economy will grow faster than the costs of debt servicing. The slowdown in GDP growth due to demographics could completely destruct this strategy, leading to a sovereign debt crisis.
The example of Japan, which has been struggling with stagnation for decades, is simply a grim warning. Tokyo avoids the crisis with a immense interior marketplace and zero interest rate policies. However, Japanese model is not possible to copy in countries like Polandwhich are more dependent on external financing. In our case, a demographic collapse can lead to a spiral of debt and a real threat of the state's insolvency, which will straight translate into paralysis of pension and healthcare systems. The adaptation to this fresh reality will require the fundamental and painful reconstruction of the state as we know it.
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