The election to the Bundestag is in 2 weeks. The latest ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll shows that the actions of the Union (CDU/CSU) in the Bundestag, including the adoption of proposals with the support of the AfD Members, divided the German public.
- 50% of respondents criticised the chadeks' decision to let the AfD votes to get a majority.
- 27% of respondents found this to be completely inappropriate.
- 23% agreed with the CDU/CSU but not with its implementation.
- 43% of respondents supported the CDU/CSU, even if it meant cooperation with AfD.
Such a consequence shows that German society is profoundly differentiated in terms of the approach to cooperation with Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalli.
Division among voters of various parties
Preferences vary importantly depending on the organization affiliation of the respondents:
- Union (CDU/CSU): 62% of its voters support the party's proceedings, 28% agree with the content of the proposal, but not with the adoption of the AfD vote, and 7% rejects this approach entirely.
- SPD: 58% of voters respect EU action as incorrect, 31% agree with the content of the proposal, but not with the method, but only 8% accept both issues.
- Greens: The biggest objection – 68% consider it unacceptable, 27% support the content of the proposal, but not the method, and only 4% agree with both aspects.
Cooperation with AfD – acceptance and borders
The debate on cooperation with AfD, considered to be partially far right, again attracted attention. The results show that German society is open to certain forms of interaction, but not to all:
- 66% of respondents reject the anticipation of government coalition with AfD, while 28% would consider it acceptable.
- 44% agree to the adoption of laws backed by AfD, while 49% disagree.
- 38% let legislative negotiations with the AfD before the vote, but 56% reject them.
The biggest opposition to cooperation with AfD comes from Green voters (99% v coalition) and SPD (97% v). Interestingly, 19% of CDU/CSU voters would accept the AfD coalition, despite the authoritative negation of specified a script by organization management.
Friedrich Merza's position – profits and doubts
Union leader Friedrich Merz repeatedly assured that he was not planning any AfD coalition, but German society is not full convinced of his sincerity:
- 44% of respondents believe Merz's promise that he will not enter the AfD coalition.
- 43% believe that it can yet break this declaration.
Despite the controversy, Merz's support increased by 5 percent points compared to December 2024, reaching 33% approval for his candidacy as Chancellor. At the same time, support for the current Chancellor Olaf Scholz increased to 25% (+6 pp) and for Robert Habeck of the Greens fell to 26% (-1 pp).
It is worth noting that Merz is besides gaining expanding designation among the AfD voters – almost 30% of them consider him a suitable candidate for Chancellor.
Election forecasts and possible coalitions
The latest poll “sonntagsfrage” (a question about electoral preferences) shows that the political power arrangement remains stable:
- CDU/CSU – 31% (+1 pp)
- AfD – 21% (+1 pp)
- SPD – 15% (no change)
- Greens – 14% (-1 pp)
- Left – 5% (no change)
- BSW and FDP – after 4% (not reaching the electoral threshold)
If these results reflect the reality after the election, real coalition options include the CDU/CSU alliance with SPD (31%) or with the Greens (14%). Among EU voters, the CDU/CSU–FDP (36%) and CDU/CSU–SPD (32%) coalitions have the highest support, while the possible CDU/CSU alliance with AfD (6%) remains unpopular.
Growing concerns about government stability
One of the most crucial trends in the survey is the increasing concern about the stableness of the future government. As many as 69% of respondents fear that after the election they will not be able to form a unchangeable coalition – this is an increase of 10 percent points compared to December 2024.
The deficiency of compromise between parties on migration policy besides remains an inflammatory point. 43% believe that both the government and the CDU/CSU are liable for the deficiency of agreement, while 33% blame the SPD and the Greens mainly, and 14% for the Union.
