After 2 defeats in the 2020 and 2025 presidential elections, Rafał Trzaskowski – the current president of Warsaw and erstwhile Citizen Coalition candidate – is faced with a dilemma whether to run again in the elections in 2030. The latest survey conducted by United Surveys for Virtual Poland sheds interesting light on its possible presidential ambitions.
Two defeats, 3 chances? Trzaskowski slow returns to Warsaw
After losing to Karol Nawrock in the second circular of the presidential election on 1 June, Rafał Trzaskowski again focused on the function of the president of the capital. However, his 2 consecutive presidential campaigns did not bring the expected results – in 2020 he lost to Andrzej Duda with a difference of about 422,000 votes, and in 2025 he besides lost to a candidate supported by the Law and Justice, they disagree by about 370 1000 votes.
It was these results that prompted speculation about his political strategy. Is it worth taking another test after specified results?
Survey: only 16.9% of Poles support another start of Trzaskowski
United Surveys, commissioned by Virtual Poland, conducted a survey to find whether the public supported the thought of the 3rd start of Rafał Trzaskowski in the 2030 presidential election. The results are worrying to policy:
- He definitely agrees. – 7.6%
- I think that's right. – 9.3%
- I don't think so. – 20.5%
- He definitely doesn't agree. – 49.0%
- I don't know. – 13.6%
Total only 16.9% of respondents support the anticipation of a 3rd startWhile 69.5% of respondents object to this idea.
No support even among its own voters
A peculiarly crucial aspect is that Even voters of the civilian Coalition (KO), Polish 2050 and Left do not want to see Trzaskowski as a candidate for president in 2030.
- 23% of which he declares his support for his next launch.
- 61% He says no.
- Others 16% He has no opinion.
This data points to a immense problem of image and trust in 1 of the leading opposition figures.
The opposition besides does not want Trzaskovsky
The situation is not better among the PiS and Confederates voters who are besides included in the analysis:
- 11% believes that Trzaskowski should launch in 2030.
- 70% It opposes this option.
- 5% selected the answer "I don't know".
That means that neither the allies nor political rivals see him as the leader of the national caliber.
Analysis of the situation: does Trzaskowski inactive have a chance?
In the context of these data, policy experts wonder whether Rafał Trzaskowski should consider a further political career on a national scale. Losing elections and negative polls may propose that his ‘brand’ has lost any of its influence.
Could this be the end of the Trzask era as the leader of the opposition? Can he alternatively focus solely on the Warsaw agenda? These questions stay open.
Let us besides note that the current case law of the Constitutional Court and of the general courts on presidential elections indicates that social support and political stableness are key factors for the success of the candidate. The absence of these elements may prevent a real fight for the office of President.
Summary
Rafał Trzaskowski, despite his erstwhile ambition and 2 attempts to win the seat of the president of Poland, faces a immense wall of social resistance. Only 16.9% of Poles support his 3rd start in the elections in 2030, and among the voters of the Civic Coalition itself, support does not exceed 23%.
If PO and KO are looking for a strong candidate for the future, possibly it's time for fresh faces. The most crucial thing for Trzaskowski now is to return to local work in Warsaw and effort to regain social trust – both among his and a wide scope of voters.
More here:
Trzaskowski for the 3rd time as president? The survey shows a dramatic fall in support among KO voters
