Katarzyna Przyborska: A new, in-depth survey of More in Common – conducted on a group of 1,500 people – shows that the most motivated and certain of their political beliefs are those over sixty, especially women. This is post-war demographics, a fewer million people, who will surely be in polling stations on 18 May. What is rather surprising, most of them want to vote for Rafał Trzaskowski. Did the Law and Justice choice the incorrect candidate?
Adam Traczyk: Looks like it. It's not like the PiS voters abruptly liked Trzaskowski. I don't think they feel the enthusiasm for Nawrock and they're retreating. Over 90% of the Platform voters want to vote for Trzaskowski, and only 80 percent of the PiS voters want to vote for Nawrocki. The difference may seem small, but given the size of the electorates, the Nawrocks "lost" over 600 1000 votes.
Do these results mean that Donald Tusk's populist game to polarize and demobilize the opponent brings results?
The game of polarization is from the point of view A small risky platform, but for the PiS at this phase of the run may be necessary. The PiS must rise its candidate and effort to beat the increasing support for Sławomir Mentzen. At the same time, it can be seen that polarizing grips, which previously worked, burn out. Especially younger ones seem to look for different lines of political dispute.
The PiS, however, fights for these elders. president Kaczyński presented Nawrocki straight as organization candidate of the PiS after long weeks of speaking about the "independent, civic candidate". Nawrocki's top asset is that he is not Trzaskowski, due to the fact that Trzaskowski is, according to the president of the Law and Justice Office, the “Deputy Tusk”, and Tusk is – it is known – the top enemy for the Law and Justice.
Law and Justice are besides trying to rekindle past emotions, accusing Donald Tusk and Adam Bodnar of the death of Barbara Skrzypek, even talking about murder, of political murder. This may inactive go to part of the PiS electorate, but alternatively not to young right-wing voters, where the PiS presently has the largest deficits.
Trzaskowski's polarization helps? 80 percent of voters are convinced that we are divided. And already your erstwhile investigation showed that after 8 years of the regulation of the Law and Justice, Poles are polarized tired.
All polarizing tactics – the speech of public debate and narratives made up by politicians, opinion leaders and publicists – are toxic due to the fact that they undermine the foundations of our community. Of course, let us not pretend that KO and PiS camps represent political identities of immense parts of Polish society, but many voters of polarization do not like and all time search an alternative. On October 15, 2023, they considered Simon Holovnia and the 3rd Road the most attractive. present this place is occupied by Sławomir Mentzen. In general, loosening a bit of communicative allowed the Liberal-Democratic camp to become a more attractive alternate to the centre voters, especially in the face of political language brutality by the Law and Justice. Today, Trzaskowski tries a akin tactic, declaring that the Smolensk monument should stay in its place.
How many are completely demobilized?
Relatively little, the election is not thought at all by about 15% of respondents. But we besides have an indecisive pool, of which 40% take into account the vote for Trzaskowski, 29 percent for Hołownia, and 33 percent have no idea. There are reserves on the liberal side that can be stimulated.
KO plays populism and moves the full political scene to the right. Progressive incendiaries – those 7% of the most active voters – did not get neither women's rights nor partnerships nor serious treatment of the expert and civic side after the elections. As Minister Duszczyk explained in an interview with the OKO.press – progressive inflammatorys are not representative, society thinks differently than this handful. At the same time, it was this fistful that kidnapped the groups previously uninvolved to the elections in 2023. Does this game pay off?
CBOS' investigation suggests that Trzaskovsky's turn to the right brought short-term confusion and failure of trust, which was already restored, due to the fact that the electorate rapidly rationalized this maneuver. If the decision was to safe the right flank, it was effective. Let us besides remember that in 2023, not only young liberal women, but besides average voters from tiny cities, were mobilized.
A Rafał Trzaskowski likes to walk in the middle. At this point, this is the centre, specified an thought of migration policy has a Polish society and it seems that the government went to this "statistical voter", even if the electorate of the civilian Coalition is, in principle, more liberal.
The left flank doesn't jump either.
Magdalena Biejat, left-wing candidate, pays any price for turning the ruling coalition to the right, but at the same time with the limited force of the Left in the Sejm, she has small to offer, apart from giving evidence and attachment to humanitarian values.
Did the divided in the Left kill her?
He surely didn't help. The left being part of the ruling coalition revolves around the electoral threshold, sometimes falling off it, and the opposition left, or Together, looks down at the subsidy threshold, and Rafał Trzaskowski is for a large condition of the left electorate the dream president, so the part of cake available to Biejat and Zandberg has further depleted.
How do you justice the candidates' campaign?
I realize that he has comparatively small resources, but a Mentzen like that pulls his wrists out and plays his own game despite clear restrictions. It is mediocre in debates, in confrontations with journalists, but for many months he has been visiting tiny cities primarily, while collecting support from surrounding villages, and the results we see in investigation – his agrarian electorate is growing, which is simply a phenomenon due to the fact that it was the hardest bastion of Law and Justice. specified strategical reflection and the iron consequence is lacking both the coalition left and the opposition left.
Isn't it time for a list?
I consider this question a provocation. The left has just split, and a common list with liberal environments would mean a complete resignation from any political entity. It is clear that neither Magdalena Biejat nor Adrian Zandberg are fighting in this run to win, but fighting for the identity and future of their political movements is besides a game worth a candle.
Simon Holovnia is judged very well according to your research. However, this does not translate into support.
Simon Holovnia has individual features rated advanced compared to another candidates. Poles are inactive convinced that it is suitable for public office, has the experience needed to be president, is simply a sympathetic politician. After the parliamentary elections, where during the run he could tease being the third, in a fresh political reality he failed to redefine his function and consequently the proposal as a candidate. He is the talker of the Sejm, a associate of the governing coalition. He'd request a fresh story. The question is, will he find her before the election. '
Boris Budka late accused Holownia of his electorate fleeing to Mentzen. Is that what happens?
Electorate Sławomir Mentzen It presently consists of 3 main blocks: the Confederate's core electorate, plus any of the erstwhile PiS voters – the younger ones – and the previously unvoted individuals that Mentzen manages to mobilize. There are fewer flows from another parties, even the 3rd Way. Rather, we see that erstwhile voters of Simon Holowna, who gave him a large consequence on October 15, partially withdrew from political life and fell into a group of indecisive or unplanned voters.
Sławomir Mentzen himself is, on the another hand, better judged by law and justice voters than Karol Nawrocki by Confederate voters. This besides shows, at least today, the direction of possible flows. As long as Mentzen doesn't turn over his own legs, which is simply a large potential.
PiS decided on Nawrocki due to the fact that Przemysław Czarnek would bear the burden of eight-year rule, besides, possibly, Jarosław Kaczyński wanted the presidential candidate to be subordinate to him.
If the PiS had set up the Nigger, we'd have a completely different conversation. due to the fact that he would be able to warm up the electorate and no 1 from his camp to Mentzen would flow. Of course, he would bear the burden of past governments, but on October 15, the PiS was the strongest party, with 35 percent points of support, and Czarnek would have the chance to keep this score, without problem getting to the second round. It would have been worse there, due to the fact that he would have pushed out average voters.
But it would defend the full right-wing camp.
Yeah. Karol Nawrocki neither convinces the centre voters nor even the full electorate of Law and Justice. The Nawrocks have all the defects of the Nigger, but there are no advantages. Kaczyński has nothing but to play for polarization and show Nawrocki as the only alternate to PO. However, not the full electorate always blindly follows the leader, people have their head and the fact that the president taps his leg does not always work.
Mentzen runs a consistent campaign, gradually expanding its base electorate. Your investigation shows that he is the biggest beneficiary of moving the full political scene to the right. I gotta ask this question: will it come to the mink?
It's possible. Mentzen is close to his ceiling, which in our investigation is 23 percent support. Mijanka would require it to be pierced, or to mobilise a completely fresh group of voters for the Confederate – older people, over 60 years old. And that requires a completely different strategy than the TikTok campaign.
It seems that Sławomir Mentzen has just initiated this movement. In the Sejm he said that alternatively of helping Ukrainians, income taxation for pensioners could be abolished. He besides met with president Duda.
In addition, the Confederate released a paper paper paper imitating the tabloid, specifically for the older right-wing electorate. They gotta take a small bit of that law and justice-bound electorate. In order to bring you to the pass, they request a fresh beginning and a fresh communication strategy, due to the fact that these people on X, Facebook, YouTub, TikToku and Instagram just aren't there.
Recently, you have besides presented research, according to which Poles inactive want to support Ukraine, but they anticipate more gratitude from Ukrainians. Does playing these strings inactive have potential?
The real Polish-Ukrainian conflicts in society are not so visible. They're more like third-hand stories. Moreover, Poles believe that providing support to Ukraine is in the strategical interests of our country. The skeptical sentiments of migrants themselves are frequently due to concerns about the state's capacity – that they may constitute economical competition or restrict the access of Poles and Poles to public services that are not in the best condition. If you can't deal with 38 million Poles, how can you do that erstwhile we add a million migrants?
So Mentzen's good at reading research?
The fact that Mentzen plays an economical card is clever, due to the fact that he does not appeal to the reluctance dictated by xenophobia and to the wallet. Combining these threads, it serves 2 parts of its electorate. The conventional electorate of the Confederate is mostly anti-Ukrainian, but ideology itself is not enough. A materialistic argument is needed to increase coverage.
Poles find their current situation worse than a year ago. Why? The minimum wage went up, the nursery prices fell. Electricity prices are a problem, but are they?
These moods are a yellow card for the government. In favour of Rafał Trzaskowski, there is the fact that voters of the Platform are the group most satisfied with the current situation. The ball and chain is that there is no enthusiasm in the remainder of society. We see that Poles started spending more, that they had already rebuilt their financial security. It may be that noticeable improvement will come with a slight delay, but there is no uncertainty that we live in a planet that has become more chaotic, uncertain. There is no tragedy, but there is no euphoria – it is as such.
What touched us before the 2023 elections – women's rights, attacks on LGBT people, PiS accounts – fell out of the list of priorities. People want safety, repair of the wellness system, energy security.
In the first 5 there is simply a simplification in the cost of surviving and control of migration. This set has been moving for months. We can see that around Poland is hot. Not only the war in Ukraine, but besides what is happening in the United States, we are very afraid and we are looking for wise, liable guides who have a plan for how to go through these restless times.
Mentzen on the scooter is responsible?
Candidates must be a small screen to which voters can cast their expectations. Sławomir Mentzen, operating with general, popular and rather empty slogans, allows a large part of Poles to imagine on their basis all the best.
Maybe Radosław Sikorski would be the kind of character that would trigger the imagination of voters and kidnap more than Rafał Trzaskowski, precisely due to troubled times?
Rafał Trzaskowski is simply a politician widely seen as the best prepared for this presidency, with the top experience that will best represent us on the global phase and who has the best of all candidates ideas to solve the problems of Poles. He runs a consistent campaign, consistent with a long-standing imagination of himself as a politician. The right side tries to represent it as utmost left or utmost liberal, but as president of the capital Trzaskowski always tried to go in the mediate and keeps this course. He may not kidnap, but he besides tries not to offend anyone, to be a personification of average advancement within the limits of the law. At the same time, it has the image of a sympathetic, perfect son-in-law. It's not a meteor that, although hit, can vanish tomorrow.
* Oh, my God *
Adam Traczyk – manager More in Common Poland, formerly co-founder of Think Tank Global.Lab. postgraduate of the Institute of global Relations of the University of Warsaw. He besides studied political sciences at Frederick Wilhelm University in Bonn, as well as Latin American and North American sciences at the Freie Universität in Berlin.
