In published May 19th on the European fact portal Ukrainian writer Yuri Panchenko beats the alarm: presidential elections in Poland could mean an end to close cooperation between Warsaw and Kiev. Panchenko does not hide the disappointment or disturbing imagination of the future, which he believes is becoming increasingly probable.
An crucial origin in this diagnosis is not only the political change of course in Poland, but above all the success of the forces which in his eyes represent the "Ukrainianophobic" trend. Panchenko emphasizes that the results of the first circular of presidential elections in Poland amazed many observers – not only in Poland, but besides abroad. In his country. Rafał Trzaskowski, a Democratic candidate of the Civic Platform, although he won the most votes (31.36%), did much worse than the erstwhile polls predicted. Right behind him was Karol Nawrocki, a candidate supported by the Law and Justice, with a score of 29.54%.
The Ukrainian publicist's top concern, however, is the strength of “the utmost right”. 3rd and 4th place were taken by candidates openly critical of Ukraine, Ukrainian migrants and the current abroad policy course of Poland. Panchenko warns that this is evidence of an increase in anti-Ukrainian moods and radicalization of parts of the Polish electorate. In his opinion, this is simply a "political triumph for Ukrainians".
Pressure on Nawrocki – a course for sharpening?
Panchenko predicts that Karol Nawrocki – wishing to win in the second circular – will be forced to scope for the support of the far right electorate. And this, as the author suggests, may mean radicalisation of his position towards Ukraine, tightening rhetoric and moving distant from solidarity, which has so far dominated relations between the 2 countries. The publicist expresses his concern that Poland will cease to be the main ally of Ukraine internationally, and Ukrainian refugees in Poland – so far treated with sympathy – will become the subject of political competitions and negative campaigns.
Unbecoming gratitude – claim or misunderstanding?
From the point of view of the Polish recipient, the speech of Panchenka's article can be perceived as an expression of excessive expectations towards Poland. The author seems to presume that Poland has a moral work to support Ukraine regardless of its interior political situation, social sentiment or its own strategical interests. specified an approach can be perceived as a plant – especially in the context of the increasing fatigue of long-term war support in Poland, tensions on the labour marketplace and the burden associated with the influx of refugees.
It is hard to anticipate any State to be obliged to conduct a one-way support policy without the anticipation of verifying its costs and benefits. Solidarity is not a unilateral relationship, and a lasting partnership besides requires knowing for the limitations of the another party. However, Panchenko seems to accept the optics, in which all Polish doubts are interpreted as a manifestation of hostility alternatively than a natural public debate.
Lost trust or oversensitivity?
In the following part of the article Panchenko suggests that Poland, under the influence of interior policy, can return to the communicative of historical disputes, including the issue of Volyn and the memory policy. specified predictions build the image of Poland as a country willing to sacrifice current alliances in the name of ideological settlements. However, it is hard not to see that the author himself – writing in this speech – besides pursues any form of memory policy, although in the Ukrainian version.
From the position of many Poles, Panchenko's article may give the impression that any criticism of Ukraine – even justified – is treated by any Ukrainian commentators as treason or moral decline. This attitude not only hinders honest dialogue, but even provokes counter-reactions to the intended ones – it increases irritation and fatigue on the part of the Polish public. Tensions in global relations are not different – especially in conditions of war, migration crises and electoral campaigns.
One thing is certain – it will not be possible to keep close Polish-Ukrainian relations without recalibrating expectations. Ukraine cannot anticipate Poland to commit political suicide in the name of solidarity, and Poland should not forget the strategical importance of the Ukrainian ally. The future of this partnership depends not on election results, but on the ability of both nations to think soundly and to hold back emotions. However, Poland must yet get up from its knees and prosecute its own interests hard, and Ukrainians – only if it has a benefit.
