The first duel of Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg in the presidential run was held by correspondence. The 2 candidates for the parliamentary left did not meet straight in the marathon debates from April 12-14: Zandberg was not in Horses, Biejat for Monday's debate on tv Republic. This correspondence duel won Biejat.
At the same time, it was her run – so far weak and uninspiring – she needed a breakthrough dramatically, Zandberg has so far run a amazingly good campaign. Biejat's performance on Friday in Koński – headed by a motion of taking over the rainbow flag from Rafał Trzaskowski – gives the second life of her run and most likely puts aside the disastrous script for fresh Left for a while, in which Zandberg precedes her candidate in the election.
In Horses you just had to be
Zandberg made a mistake ignoring the Horses, although he was in Kielce that afternoon and could easy scope the close village. alternatively of getting into the debate, the candidate together chose a position of moral and aesthetic outrage: he recorded roll, where he condemned the full spectacle as a fall of standards and circus, he pointed out that he was at the time dealing with serious politics – on Friday afternoon he met with president Duda to convince him to veto a bill reducing the wellness contribution to entrepreneurs.
Meritically Zandberg was right, politically not. He and his staff have completely underestimated the emotions and interest that 2 debates in Koński will generate. The second, broadcast by the 3 biggest televisions, had a full of 6 million people to watch. Many times more than Zandberg's primary opposition to the full event registered. alternatively of recording a video from a car that has small more than 500,000 views on the X portal, the same could be said to a respective million people and, at the same time, utilized 3 hours of debate to present their views to them.
Zandberg chose to miss this chance at his own request. He failed to do his failure in the Republic on Monday. That debate was simply boring, and surely did not bring together an audience like the Friday event. Zandberg did well in it, he was undoubtedly the best, but he had no minute compared to Biejat's motion with the flag. In fact, he only started in the circular of common questions, erstwhile he nailed Nawrocki with a question about his supporting richest taxation proposals, and Mentzen about how the free marketplace should deal with the foot-and-mouth illness epidemic threatening Polish cows.
For most of the performance, however, he spoke as well as without a flash. In consequence to the moronic question "how much is gender?", he rapidly changed the subject to housing, claiming the rights of transgenders at the same time, but was more powerfully able to urge Simon Holownia to do so.
First poll After the debates in Koński – United Surveys for Virtual Poland – showed an increase in support for Biejat by 3.6 percent points to 6.3 percent, Zandberg has 1.3% of the support, 0.3 percent points little than the erstwhile survey of the centre. While this decline is not significant, against the background of the last 2 polls – CBOS and Opinii24 for Facts TVN 24 – where Zandberg has over 5% of support and took 4th place, even ahead of Holovnia with twice as much support as Biejat, the survey of United Surveys looks like an air drain from the candidate's run Together.
It is very interesting how long the "Koński effect" will last – due to the fact that the increase in sympathy for Biejat may prove to be one-off, especially if no fresh energy and ideas appear after Friday in her campaign.
Progressive correction...
The United Surveys survey besides shows a decline in support for Rafał Trzaskowski by 4.8 percent points. any part of this electorate most likely went to the fresh Left candidate. This Friday in Koński addressed very clearly its message to the progressive voters of the coalition, who could vote for both the fresh Left and the Civic Coalition.
Biejat argued: if you want this government to implement its progressive and pro-social promises, you gotta vote for me, it will signal to the government for the second half of the word of office, in which direction it is to go. The better the result of the left, the more progressive the further policy of the Tusk government, the weaker the weaker it is, the stronger it will be reduced by conservative anchors. The situation with the rainbow flag confirmed this communicative of Biejat – Karol Nawrocki and Rafał Trzaskowski made here a great, unintended gift of the legislature marshals.
In another words, Biejat decided on Friday: I am speaking to the coalition voters, convincing them that the vote for me is simply a vote for a progressive-social adjustment of the government's course. This is simply a alternatively politically cautious – or barely ambitious – message, but at the same time based on a reasonably realistic reading of what are the real limits of support of the fresh Left candidate. If Biejat keeps it, it can gather support close to 5%, convincing part of the electorate, inclined to vote already in the first circular in Trzaskowski, to vote in the first and strategically.
This maneuver has its risks. Biejat cannot be besides weakly distinguished from Trzaskovsky, otherwise it will not give adequate reason for voters to vote for it, not for president of the capital. He can't attack the coalition besides hard at the same time, either, or he'll exposure himself to allegations of undermining the full coalition. The most faithful fans of KO are already attacking Holovnia and Biejat, a candidate of the fresh Left, especially for her Monday gathering with president Duda, on which, like the candidate Together on Friday, she convinced him to veto the wellness Charge Act.
If Duda actually vetoes her before the elections, part of the blame for this will fall on the left, as a "unloyal coalitionist" "co-operating with the Law and Justice", which may besides prove problematic for the run of the Vice Marshal of the Senate. However, if fresh Left is not able to halt the government's majority here, it will exposure itself to allegations from the Together that it is in vain in the "antisocial coalition", completely devoid of cause.
At the same time, any part of Biejat's vote will be taken by Joanna Senyszyn. On Monday in the Republic, a politician appeared with a immense SLD bange in a flap, straight positioning herself as a candidate for a no longer existing organization that disappeared transforming into a fresh Left. This transformation left a group of malcontents convinced that unification with Spring had taken place in a harmful way of the SLD, for various reasons reluctant to lead the Black One. The voice of Senishyn will let them to vent their discontent. Doubtful or eccentric political will rise more than 100,000 votes, but with specified low base support as the left, any failure is significant.
... versus social atomic Poland
Zandberg is looking for voters in completely different places. Firstly, among voters powerfully disappointed by the coalition on October 15, who want to usage the presidential election to show their discontent with what Tusk's regulation looks like. Secondly, among the mostly anti-systemic, young, most frequently male electorate he tries to fight Mentzen for; thirdly, among the social voters of the Law and Justice. Finally, fourthly, among the aspiring, reluctant “smiled Poland” electorate of the “CPK party” to which it seems to be addressed transmission about “A atomic field. Poland of silicon, steel and large public investment”, which will be built by Together in place of the country “from dictatorship, cardboard and Citizens' Platform”.
It is simply a task incomparably more ambitious than this Biejat, the question of whether together dramatically overestimate its ability to rise fresh voters beyond the group of the most identityist left electorate, who with many hesitations supported the current coalition in 2023, but present is no longer able to vote for it.
Yes, Zandberg is surely favored by the clear Mentzen run crisis. As in 2023, the Confederate candidate turns out to be his top political enemy. Interviews in Channel Zero and words about free studies and abortion ban pushed Confederate's run for a crisis course. The absence in the Horses and the terrible performance in the Republic will only deepen it.
Zandberg for the electorate he wants to fight Mentzen for, however, may inactive be besides left-wing and besides mainstream candidate. Nawrocks with their message aimed at entrepreneurs and the Confederate electorate theoretically give opportunities to fight for social voters. The question, however, is whether Zandberg will not be besides progressive and besides intelligent for them.
Together, which has never completed any modernisation project, even at the level of the municipality, and there are no people in the ranks who would effectively manage large projects in the private sector or in the civilian service can besides be seen as medium-reliability erstwhile promising "social silicon-atomic Poland".
Worst and best scenario
In the best scenario, both campaigns from the left would complement each other. Biejat would effectively mobilize the progressive-social electorate of the coalition around it on October 15, and Zandberg, the 1 who is incapable to support the coalition today. Before the next election, both of them could meet again on 1 list, especially if Biejat had won more votes.
However, a much worse script may occur. Zandberg will not win fresh votes, but together with Senyszyn he will sink Biejat candidacy. The consequence of the fresh Left candidate will be weak adequate that the fresh Left will consider that it will entail polling drops below the threshold, thus fresh Left will enter endurance mode, searching for places on the KO list. In spite of this, he will not cross the threshold and we will see the future Sejm again without an independent left.
When voting in the May election, voters must be aware of both scenarios.
