The presidential elections are circumstantial erstwhile it comes to examining the social sentiments and support for individual parties, but almost each of them received an evaluation from its constituents – and almost each in the last period mentally folded.
No one, even apparent winners, can be satisfied, due to the fact that in Polish politics has accelerated the processes of political fermentation, the effect of which can knock down the full agreement. So let us look at the biggest Polish parties and what awaits them in the close future.
Civil Coalition
For the ruling party, radiated by a win before 18 months at evidence attendance, elections are not a failure. They're an absolute disaster. A fewer months ago, a meme about a nun on a belt and a Trzaskowski only caused laughter. Today, this laughter stuck the organization in its throat and completely overturned the political idea.
It's not just about another loss, it's about who they lost to and what kind of loss. On 1 evening, KO of the winners organization became a organization of "failees". It was not the PiS that proved to be a transient anomaly, it was the KO that became an anomaly in times of long-term dominance and regulation of the PiS. Voters, journalists, large business. Not by accident. Rafał Brzoska He has already started congratulating Nawrocki, as shortly as all the business facilities follow him, and the authoritative apparatus will slow prepare for Kaczyński's return to power.
How can we regulation the state? How do you account for individual erstwhile the D.A. already knows he'll have Ziobra on his back in 2 years? KO could velocity up, effort to bomb the president with laws, but coalitions are fighting for their lives, so their opposition will only increase. The organization could hide Tusk, but he is not only her top burden, but besides an asset – there is no 1 too him, and experience with Budka's governments proved to be a disaster. This means that the KO is doomed to political feeding on coalition voters. They will weaken, KO consume them. As a result, the Tusk organization in 2027 can even win, only, a stupid case – it will not have much of a coalition with whom to enter.
Law and Justice
The coalition will have individual to hold the PiS with. After years of being a hegemon on the right, the PiS – nevertheless absurdly this does not sound – can stand in the ‘center’. This is how the political scene crossed over. To the right of the PiS has not only the Confederate, but the 1 on its right has Braun. specified a political constellation is indeed a political failure of the Law and Justice in the last 18 months. The party, which is the main force of the opposition, alternatively of presenting its own vision, began to play with the entrenched Kombatant movement, and consequently, any of its voters choice up the uncombatant Mentzen and Braun.
Time will show how long this trend continued, but in the first round, in which 1 votes more “for” his own than against “less evil”, the PiS candidate obtained nearly 2 million votes little than the PiS in the parliamentary election. The triumph is so Pyrrus, given that it is not expected for the time being that the PiS itself will gain power. And this means in 2027 either (unwanted by Kaczyński) an alliance with the Confederate or (wrote by Kaczyński) an alliance with the PSL. In addition, the price for selecting a candidate for a close Confederate who had (as it turned out effectively) to collect her election in the second circular is the close Confederate president in the palace. And this 1 can get out of political custody.
Confederation
Mentzen, theoretically not the biggest win and circular of elections, not only did he make a good score, but he played a large second round. It was to him, like a political patron, that the leaders had to pilgrimage. Only that the more the Confederacy grows, the greater the animosity and interior conflict for power await it – this time truly real. Bosak has waited besides long to be scolded, and Mentzen has already tasted the interior “kingly murder”.
The greater the support, the more the Confederacy must be warmed up. It is different erstwhile you are a extremist organization with 7–8 percent support, or if you fish in a larger pond with normists, which they do not want to hear about abortion bans in case of rape or extra paid wellness care. The Confederacy must so civilise its message a small bit, and this means that in a minute from the right it will be made by Braun's politicians. In addition, the Confederate grows to a 3rd strength in the countryside, which may origin a historical agreement between the PiS and the PSL, and this could be for the Confederate game over.
Polish People's organization
Whether this alliance will be decided by the PSL, you don't know. Contrary to the popular opinion, the organization under the leadership of Kosiniak-Kamish has long since gone out with everyone, due to the fact that for over a decade he has been going with Tuski. Only that this expression is close exhaustion, especially since there is no longer another Kukiz or Holowna on the horizon, who would supply voters from smaller towns and provincial Poland. The PSL is about to be lonely, which means being on the doorstep.
In the alliance with the Law and Justice, however, it would look a bit different. The PiS with its iron 30% electorate plus 4% PSL give both parties, a bagatel, 220 seats in the fresh Sejm, which means that only 10 MPs will request to be selected. The price is the progressive unification – both parties aim for the same voter – but the alternate may be not to enter the Sejm.
Poland 2050
The political leader's organization usually divides its fate, for better or worse. And here comes the bad news. The consequence of Holownia made it no longer any added value for PSL, possibly even a load. In the first circular at the urns, nearly 2 million less 3rd Way voters appeared than 18 months earlier.
In addition to making catastrophic mistakes, Holovnia harms itself. Locked in the Sejm, without continuous visits to the media, he lives in a land separated from reality and is absent in real Poland. He repeats the communicative of a work that no 1 can see, gives the impression of a broken disc generating a random bon mota, which utilized to be inactive funny, present they only irritate with the manners of a satisfied Primus.
Running forward, mostly staged and simply rhetorical, the organization will not help, due to the fact that neither ruble of support with the KO voters will earn, and virtue with PiS could only lose. It might be an option to leave the coalition, but it doesn't seem possible.
New Left
In the case of the Czarzaste party, which is another mutation of the Millerian SLD with barons, there is no more talk of leaving the coalition. Not only due to the fact that MP Żukowska received PLN 128 1000 for sitting on the KRS in this term, but due to the fact that half of the club is already mentally at Tusk. Mr Trela constantly dresses his feet to share the destiny of Joński or Nowacka. Detaching the apparatus from privileges and apanases in the name of fighting for left-wing goals, in which part of fresh Left politicians do not even believe, is virtually impossible without the club breaking up. The superb thought of Czarzaste to break together through the interior secession and entrust the moving of Magdalena Biejat was to make him fall together. Robert Biedron even publically told that Zandberg would not collect signatures.
Meanwhile, Zandberg was not rushed to the corner by conventional blackmail of libel media and authorities and made a score better than Biejat. So the fresh Left has the worst possible situation. He balances on the threshold, supports an unliked government, which is about to go to the right even more, and so he will humiliate the left electorate even more, but it is impossible to leave the coalition, due to the fact that the media and voters are about to abandon treason and bring the Law and Justice to rule.
Czarzasty is already only a hostage of the full situation, and that is why the politicians of Poland 2050 promise that they will not give him the promised rotation seat of the marshal in the mediate of the government term. The organization scrubs on the poll bottom, and its only shining star is Agnieszka Dziemanowicz-Bąk, who erstwhile and for all learns that it will never be done in the Black Formation. To kill the Black One, his 5 minutes are now driven out by Joanna Senyszyn, which means he can build his own movement and receive voices so needed by the Left to cross the threshold.
Total
Together, which is clearly on the wave, is theoretically in a better position. Adrian Zandberg's score, looking through the run launch prism, is indeed rather impressive, but it is inactive only 5 percent, so all the time balancing on the threshold. In addition, the organization will not have the Zandbergs themselves on the electoral lists, and this could mean losses outside the large agglomerations, where this 1 traditionally had a diamond.
A large part of the electorate of the president Together are young voters who are a very Labial electorate and after 1457 the text on wellness care will simply shrug their arms and will not go to the urns. The hazard of the broken evidence and the repetition of the same by Together is underestimated today, while the organization can become a organization of 1 slogan, which in the long run will bore everyone.
In a sense, Zandberg is present pictured where Holovnia was 18 months ago. The position of political sigma, however, is easier to gain than to maintain, especially for over 2 years.
Krona Polska Brauna
The immense success of Grzegorz Braun, who jumped Biejat and Zandberg, makes it essential to deal with the organization in the context of the election result. But if Together has a problem with activists in the field, what about Braun, who doesn't have any structures at all, and at this point is incapable to issue most likely even a letter across the country? In addition, he is plagued by akin left-wing syndromes of wasted voice, and the Church, having the choice of the full tribe of right-wing politicians, does not necessarily gotta support him.
The hope for Braun seems to be... short-lived arrests and prisons that will make him a martyr, and an ongoing war in Ukraine that will exacerbate the fatigue and fatigue of the Ukrainian subject among his electoral target. but that anti-immigrant language is being taken over present by everyone outside the left, so Braun will abruptly be left with anti-Semitism and subsequent events against which Bosak will look like a statesman.
