An Opinion24 poll for RMF FM published this morning brings interesting news for all those observing the Polish political scene. Biggest surprise? A clear decline in support for the Confederacy – a organization that could number on solid support from a young, mostly male electorate. present it is losing 5 percent points and this could be the beginning of a larger crisis.
In the latest study, the Civic Coalition gained 33% of support, which means a minimum decrease of 1 percent point compared to the March survey. Law and Justice improved their score from 26.3% to 28%. Despite these insignificant changes, experts point out that differences fall within the limits of statistical mistake – and this means that both parties can talk about unchangeable support.
This is good news for KO, which holds itself in the position of leader, and for PiS, which after months of decline yet rebuilds assurance among its electorate. It is worth noting that as many as 84% of PiS voters of 2023 declare present the readiness to re-support Jarosław Kaczyński's party. A period earlier, there were only 71% of them. In turn KO attracts 89% of its erstwhile voters – 8 percent points more than in March.
This shows that the major political parties not only keep their state of possession, but besides effectively rebuild contact with their own electorate. In this clash, the main political forces do not see violent movements – elections at the minute would win KO, but PiS has not yet said the last word.
Confederation decline: hard landing
It gets much more interesting in 3rd place. The Confederation, which enjoyed 21% support in March, present can number on only 16%. This is simply a large decrease – as many as 5 percent points per month. Demographic data are even more alarming: Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak lost almost half of their young voters.
In March, as many as 54% of those aged 18-29 declared support for the Confederation. present it's only 29%. It's a large blow due to the fact that the young have been the bastion of this organization so far. Equally disturbing for the leaders of the Confederate is the drain of the male electorate – a decrease from 31% to 23%. Among women, support for the organization was and remains marginal (only 10%).
It's hard not to ask: what happened? The Confederacy built its strength on an anti-systemic transmission and a strong liberal approach to the economy. specified a message went to frustrated young voters. But in fresh weeks, group leaders have been appearing more frequently in the media in a context of controversy than in a substantive debate. This may have discouraged any of the sympathies.
The decline may besides mean fatigue with a policy expression based mainly on TikTok and aggressive occurrences. Today, young people anticipate not only emotions, but besides specifics – and those, as the poll shows, began to deficiency in the eyes of voters.
Fourth place was placed the 3rd Road with a score of 7.5%. This is theoretically an increase compared to March (then 6.7%), but inactive below the 8% threshold, which for the coalition is the boundary of entry into the Sejm.
Although growth is simply a affirmative signal, TD continues to balance on the edge of political existence. For the leaders of Poland 2050 and PSL is simply a clear signal: either we will increase the dynamics of the run or we will be out of the game. An increase of little than a percent point does not warrant that the threshold will be exceeded in real elections.
One of the most interesting conclusions of the opinion study24 is the increase in declared attendance. If elections were held on the coming Sunday, 63% of Poles would go to the polls – 3 points more than in March and 9 points more than in December 2024. It's evidence of increasing social mobilization.
However, there are inactive large differences between age groups. The lowest attendance is declared by the youngest voters – only 42% of those aged 18-29 intend to vote. This is simply a weak consequence and a origin for concern, due to the fact that it is the young people who have the most to say about the future. By comparison, in the 60+ group, the declared attendance is as much as 71%.
It is besides worth noting the correlation between the level of education and the willingness to participate in elections. 78% of those with higher education declare to vote, while in the primary or vocational education group it is only 53%. Nevertheless, it is simply a delight to see that in this second group there is an increase in interest in politics – as much as 9 points compared to the erstwhile month.
An interesting reflection is besides the level of mobilisation among the electorates of individual groups. fresh Left sympathizers (86%) and the Civic Coalition (85%) declare their top willingness to vote. This is simply a powerful advantage compared to the Confederate electorate, where the level of mobilisation – especially among young people – is clearly decreasing.
