The fresh United Surveys poll for Virtual Poland reveals interesting and possibly decisive trends before the second circular of the presidential election.
Although the Confederate electorate, represented by Sławomir Mentzen, obtained in the first circular 14.8%, he does not intend to explicitly support the PiS candidate.
Results of the II circular poll:
- Rafał Trzaskowski (KO) – 47.4%
- Karol Nawrocki (PiS) – 45.0%
- Undecided – 7.6%
The difference between candidates is within the limits of statistical error, which means that a tiny number of votes can find the result.
Mentzen voters' preference:
- 44% – votes to Karol Nawrocki
- 35% – chooses Rafał Trzaskowski
- 21% – He's inactive hesitating.
This is simply a amazing result, given the crucial ideological differences between Trzaskowski and Mentzen. This shows, however, that any Confederate voters are guided by political calculation – not necessarily ideological loyalty.
Sławomir Mentzen announced a set of postulates to be a test for presidential candidates. Karol Nawrocki accepted all points and signed the document. Rafał Trzaskowski supported only 4 of them and refused to sign, declaring that he "does not sign another people's programs".
The situation resembles the 2020 presidential election. Krzysztof Bosak of the Confederacy then won 6.78% of the vote in the 1st round, and then did not formally support any candidate. Nevertheless, a crucial part of his electorate voted in the 2nd circular on Trzaskowski, wanting to block Andrzej Duda's re-election. This phenomenon shows that Confederate voters are not a political monolith and are prone to strategical voting.
The PiS camp candidate wants to vote for this 98 percent. voters Grzegorz Braun.
Demographic profile of electorates
The survey besides reveals interesting differences in support structure:
- Trzaskowski dominates among women (59%), persons with higher education (70%)residents large cities (60%) and people of age 40-49 years (71%).
- Nawrocks has stronger support in the countryside and in smaller centres, as well as among men.
The consequence of the II circular remains open. Trzaskowski has the advantage, but small. In this situation, all vote counts. The key ones will turn out to be Confederate voters and undecided people – they can tip the scales of victory.
The 2025 presidential election is now entering a decisive phase.
