There are certain things about the upcoming elections to the Euro-Parliament that we can say for sure, about others we can reliably speculate about – this is what I will dedicate this note to.
First,, attendance will be up to 30%. Previously, this was 20.9 – 24.5 – 23.8. I don't think that curve's gonna blow to the ceiling anymore.
Second, with specified low attendance, the consequence is more a function of mobilising a given group of voters than the distribution of preferences. And that's good news for the Anti-script, due to the fact that I anticipate a weaker mobilization of the Script electorate.
Why? After 2a, PiS traditionally treats Europarliament as a place of luxury messenger to politicians who have compromised themselves in the national section, but due to merit or influence Kaczyński cannot just throw them out.
The only ones on the lists will so be "locomotives" specified as Szydło or Jaka. There will be no enthusiastic run here, alternatively something on the basis of “and let Strasbourg go, at least it will halt roaming on Polish roads”.
There will be more vigor and energy on our side, because, besides, we are enthusiastic about the European Union and they are divided between full Polexit and talking about fighting muslim bulbs for war reparations. In our list there will be genuine experts from the Union, possibly fresh talents (Trzaskowski made his debut in politics).
After 2bBoth of these camps have their hard-cores and their commando. The hard core of the Law and Justice are people who support this organization unconditionally in everything, adapting to all message of the day.
The hardcores of PiSu truly believe that hen hen, erstwhile upon a time, somewhere between parousia and Greek calendas, Morawiecki will supply electrical cars, CPL to them Solidarity Baranów, and will dig a keel. Macierewicz recovers the wreckage, finds the gyzogen troll and buys helicopters better than the Caracals. Ziobra improvement will have any affirmative effect and something will improve in courts – and so on.
The remainder of them are the public workers, who privately do not believe it either, but they support on the basis of the Better Evil. After all, I myself have specified a verbal attitude to the PO.
It's not a organization of my dreams, but I was grateful to her for thousands of miles of modern roads. The journey to Wrocław utilized to be a horror movie, now the combo A2/A1/S8 is pure pleasure. And I will never forget who I owe it to: Minister Caesar Grabarczyk.
However, I have never voted for the PO in the Euro elections. In 2014, I voted for a protest on the Greens, who had no chance due to the fact that they didn't even registry the letter nationwide – it was just the only left option.
In 2009, a coalition competed in the Euro-Elections, which looked totally cool on paper. It was called “Centrile” and consisted of survivors of the Democratic organization and various non-Esseldish leftist environments.
In my district, the 1 on the list was Marek Czarnecki, issued by PD. Previously he was a Euro MP from Self-defence (!), and before that he acted in the AWS, Conservative and Human organization and the Christian-Democrats Agreement.
In the following elections he ran (also unsuccessfully) from Poland Together Gowin. I won't be amazed how in this election will locomotive the leaves of the PiS (locomotives silent whistle, lye, and wagoons uniform rhythm, telep telep...)
In whose empty skull the thought of making it a single centre-left group appeared – I will most likely never know again. The centre gathered 2.4% of the votes and was lost like a pole inserted by Kaczyński.
The very existence of specified coalitions leads me to – third – the conclusion that Euro-elections are a good sandbox for investigating fresh initiatives. Various exotic left-wing and right-wing initiatives unexpectedly jumped the threshold – in 2004 the ephemeral Socialism PL introduced 3 Euro MPs, in 2014 the top success in past was Corwin (7%!).
And even the untimely ones, specified as the mentioned Centrolewica or the bizarre “Europe Plus” group (Kalisz, Siwiec, Palikot, Piskorski, Celiński... brrr!), got 3.6%. In a word, if Biedron wants to show a fresh group, then – as quoted by O’Ren Ishii – now is the time.
Precampation starts large for Anti-script. In the coming days, the Law and Justice are waiting for 2 compromises – the defeat of Ziobra in conflict with the TEU and the embarrassing question, what precisely did the method minister Gliński spend these 200 million on a kiboli race?
They'll grill themselves for it. I hope until May!
