According to the information provided by RMF FM, the 3rd Road – the coalition of the Polish People's organization and Poland 2050 – is facing a major crisis, which may end before the holiday.
It's not a insignificant conflict or a temporary short circuit. In the background, we have very circumstantial and serious political events which will affect the arrangement of forces throughout the Sejm. The consequence of the first circular of presidential elections, the upcoming reconstruction of the government and the possible win of Karol Nawrocki trigger an avalanche of political scenarios. 1 of the most realistic is the 1 that assumes early parliamentary elections.
For the PSL coalition and Poland 2050, the alarm signal was the consequence of Szymon Holown in the presidential election. The 4.99% of the votes obtained by him were dramatically low – not only disappointing, but even humiliating for the talker of the Sejm, who was to be 1 of the pillars of the modern centre and balance the dispute between the Civic Platform and the Law and Justice. Meanwhile, the Holovnia was not only preceded by Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, which was predictable, but besides by Grzegorz Braun and Sławomir Mentzen. This shows how much the 3rd Road lost contact with the voters of the measure, which was to be its natural base.
It was this consequence that forced the leaders of PSL and Poland 2050 to velocity up talks about the future of their cooperation. According to RMF FM information, the gathering of 3rd Way leaders is planned for the first week of June, and the decisions that will be made there may specify the further destiny of this coalition. There is already an beginning in the spheres about the anticipation of election only via PSL. This solution has 1 basic value: erstwhile moving alone, PSL must exceed the threshold of 5 percent, not 8 percent, as is the case with the coalition. In practice, this means little political hazard and greater flexibility, especially in the context of low support for the partner – Poland 2050.
Unofficially, there is besides talk about the anticipation of individual transfers. any politicians associated with Simon Holovnia would be included on the PSL lists, others could associate with the Civic Coalition. It is simply a signal that the 3rd Way may fall apart not so much as a political project, but as a community of people – politicians who had a common vision. If this script comes true, it will be admitting that the “Third Way” task did not withstand a test of time or force of real politics.
The decisions on the dissolution or further cooperation will be taken just before the planned reconstruction of the government, announced by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. This reconstruction may be another part of the puzzle that will deepen the crisis in the 3rd Road. Tusk seeks to renegotiate the coalition agreement, which could mean shuffling not only among ministers, but besides redefining the function of individual groups within the broad governing coalition. If Poland 2050 is considered to be a weak partner, this can accelerate decisions about its marginalisation or full exclusion from the government agreement.
It is besides crucial that the second circular of presidential elections be held on 1 June. If Karol Nawrocki, the right-wing candidate, wins against Rafał Trzaskowski, the situation for the current government coalition will radically change. Nawrocki as president could veto the laws adopted by Parliament, which would effectively block the anticipation of efficient governance. In specified a script Donald Tusk may decide to make a extremist move: to set up early parliamentary elections to effort to get a stronger social mandate and a greater lead in the Sejm. This is simply a script that can be dangerous for weaker coalition links – specified as Poland 2050 – but can be beneficial to the PO, which has unchangeable support.
As part of the upcoming government reconstruction with ministerial posts, Adam Bodnar, Minister of Justice, and Paulina Hennig-Kloska, Head of the Climate Ministry, can say goodbye. This shows that the Prime Minister is not afraid of bold movements and is ready to make individual sacrifices in the name of political efficiency. This could besides be a signal to the coalition: you are partners as long as you have political benefits. erstwhile you halt gathering expectations – your position is threatened.
It is worth noting that politics is not mathematics. Even if the PSL itself exceeds the 5% threshold, not the 8% required for the coalition, this does not mean automatic success. Possible regroupings, image conflicts and media chaos can origin voters to drain. The 3rd Way task was to be more than just the sum of PSL and Poland 2050 – it was to be a viable alternate to 2 major political poles. Meanwhile, it seems that he was only a comfortable electoral marriage, which would not last an effort to act in conditions of real power and responsibility.
All of this is happening in a very short time. TD's future will be decided in June. If the eventual defeat of Rafał Trzaskowski in the second circular and the election of Karol Nawrocki as president occurs, the script of accelerated elections becomes very likely. Then PSL and Poland 2050 would gotta enter run mode almost immediately, build fresh strategies, letters and messages. And it's all in conditions of chaos, deficiency of trust and interior tension.
In the coming weeks everything will depend on the decision of respective key people: Holownia, Kosiniaka-Kamysz, Tusk and – possibly – Karol Nawrocki. Each of them faces a choice that can change the political map of Poland for years. The 3rd Road was to be a consequence to the fatigue of the PO-PiS War. But if it falls apart, it will leave only 1 thing – even more polarization and chaos, which will be hard to master without new, strong leadership.
