The upcoming presidential election in Romania promises to be 1 of the most unpredictable in the past of the country. Just a fewer weeks before the first round, the election run is gaining momentum and the political scenery is becoming more complex. 1 thing is certain: George Simion, the leader of the national-conservative AUR (Soyusz for Romanian Unity), is definitely leading in all polls. Whoever confronts him in the second circular – however, remains an open question.
According to the latest Flashdata survey of April 7, Simion enjoys the support of 28% of voters. This is simply a consequence that confirms the dominance of the AUR leader, especially after the withdrawal from the Călina Georgescu race – a erstwhile favorite, who was excluded from participating in the election by the Constitutional Court decision. Simion not only rapidly took over Georgescu's electorate, but besides strengthened his position as leader of the anti-establishment movement, advocating Romania's sovereignty and limiting external influence, especially Brussels.
Interestingly, despite intense criticism from the establishment of media and parties, Simion seems immune to a negative campaign. Its message reaches broad layers of society – tired of corruption, stagnation and political hypocrisy of the ruling class. To many Romanians, Simion is not just a politician, but a personification of opposition to elites who have marginalized the voice of a common citizen for decades.
The fight for second place is far more fierce than the question of first place itself. According to Flashdata's poll, Crin Antonescu – a joint candidate of the Social Democratic PSD and the centre-right PNL – wins 26% of the vote, meaning he has a good chance of entering the second round. However, another studies show different images.
Verifield's survey, commissioned by independent candidate Nicușor Dan, shows the "scenario of horror" for the ruling parties: the second is erstwhile Prime Minister Victor Ponta with 21.1%, followed by Dan with 20.8% and Antonescu only in 4th position – only 16%.
Another survey by Sociopol shows that Ponta (22%) has the best chance of competing with Simion. Dan (16%) and Antonescu (14%) clearly stand out. In addition – and this may be crucial – this survey suggests that Simion would defeat both pro-European candidates in the second round, but would lose to Ponta, who uses the image of a strong social leader while flirting with the sovereign electorate.
The divisions in the pro-European camp are getting deeper. Nicușor Dan publically appealed to another liberal-democratic candidates to retreat from the race in his favor, claiming that only he had a chance to defeat Simion in the second round. However, both Antonescu and Ponta rejected the idea, accusing him of manipulating the polls and wanting to break the common front.
The situation is complicated by the fact that each group presents different data. Flashdata favors Antonescu, Verifield – Dana, and Sociopol – Ponta. any analysts propose that there are direct orders for election staff behind these discrepancies. This would not be the first time that Romanian polls are more a political tool than a credible reflection of the public.
One of the unknown factors that can find the result is attendance. In the December, nullified elections only 53% of eligible voters voted. Now, according to forecasts, attendance can scope up to 80%. It is simply a immense change, driven not only by a revived campaign, but besides by social sentiments after months of political instability and concerns about the integrity of the electoral process.
Interestingly, the increase in attendance is likely to work in favour of an anti-system candidate – Simion. His electorate is determined, mobilized and convinced that this time their voice truly matters.
Based on hard numbers, the most likely script is the Simion–Antonescu duel. But if trends from the Verifield and Sociopol polls find confirmation at the urns, there may be a surprise and a second tour of Simion–Pont. This clash would be interesting: 2 politicians with completely different styles, but seeking a akin kind of voter – dissatisfied with the pro-European establishment course.
It is besides not possible to exclude the script in which Dan will outrun both, thanks to the mobilisation of urban and younger voters. In this case, Simion would besides have a good chance, due to the fact that Dan – although dynamic and modern – has no national experience.
At the moment, everything indicates that the 2025 presidential elections in Romania will be a test not only for candidates, but for the full political system. George Simion, despite media and political ostracism, is consistently rising. And although the establishment may effort to block it, it seems that a large part of Romanians no longer want to vote “as always”.
