We already know the authoritative results, so it is time for a fewer reflections – both general and circumstantial candidates. I'll effort to put it as rationally as possible, but there will be no shortage of my subjective conclusions.
1. The polls were incorrect again.
One of the most visible and bright conclusions of these elections is that pre-election polls have little and little to do with reality. erstwhile again, it turned out that the forecasts ran over with actual results – with a insignificant exception possibly for OGB. That raises serious questions. Are pollers truly measuring support, or are they just creating favorable narratives for circumstantial parties and media?
It is very possible that we are dealing with methodological errors here: investigation focuses mainly on the inhabitants of cities (because they are easier to capture) and, as the results show, cities and villages vote diametrically different. It besides seems more real that any voters simply do not tell the fact in the polls. For various reasons – shame, social force or the desire to hide their political sympathy.
2. Yellow card for power – but not necessarily support for opposition
What is conspicuous is simply a kind of informing that voters have issued to the current ruling coalition. It's not a red card yet, but definitely a strong informing signal. Trzaskowski, the KO candidate, won the most votes, but his advantage over the PiS candidate was minimal and surely below staff expectations. Interestingly, it is not so that voters disappointed by the PiS regulation massively switched to KO. On the contrary, many of them sought alternatives outside the dual. Hence the good results of Mentzen, Braun or Zandberg. This shows the increasing fatigue of the “POPiS war” and the search for fresh ways of political expression.
3. run separated from real problems
Debates and run themes – this is another interesting theme. I had the impression that any of the themes raised by the candidates were completely disconnected from the real expectations of the people. Discussions about the ban on telephones in schools (Hołownia), the subject of abortion (Bejat), or eternal personnel attacks (mainly Trzaskowski and Hołownia) – it all looked more like a media fight for mema than a substantive conversation with citizens. Meanwhile, those candidates who raised circumstantial topics – taxes, security, economical situation – were noticed and appreciated. Mentzen and Nawrocks gained support thanks to simple, easy-to-read postulates – even if not everyone agrees with them, they know what these people represent.
Candidate after candidate – my observations:
Rafał Trzaskowski
It is hard to tell how much Trzaskowski and his staff knew that the polls were overstated and how much they believed in them. The fact is that the consequence of the first circular did not make them happy – the advantage over Nawrock was symbolic. The key problem of Trzaskowski was the debates: those on which he did not appear were read as ignoring voters, especially as the ratings in the Republic were high. What about the ones he was in? Unfortunately, he did very poorly. He was incapable to repost, lost in his positions, put into idle disputes, even with Braun or Nawrock. For a poll leader – a very mediocre form.
Karol Nawrocki
The consequence “to calmly good”. Despite the affair with the studio and many media attacks, he maintained about 30% of support, which was most likely within the expectations of the Law and Justice Office. He's a candidate with the toughest electorate and he hasn't convinced himself of fresh voters, but he hasn't lost this conflict either. Now he will gotta catch up with Trzaskowski in the second round, which may be hard if the support of the Confederate and the centre voters cannot be obtained.
Sławomir Mentzen
This is the biggest win of this circular – although possibly not on paper. He did not accomplish the results from the highest polls, but inactive broke the Confederate evidence and virtually doubled their score from 2023. In addition, present Mentzen is the 1 who hands out the cards: his electorate can decide who wins the second round, and without their votes it is impossible to make a future government. Mentzen showed that a clear message and consistency in the views scope young and tired voters. He became the point of mention – and not only for the Confederacy.
Grzegorz Braun
Braun's score – above 6% – is simply a immense surprise, most likely even for his own staff. His success was due to clear, uncompromising transmission and unique kind of speaking – possibly not for everyone, but for many voters tired of political correctness and deceit – he was credible. Can this consequence be maintained? It depends on whether a unchangeable political environment with reasonable parliamentary candidates can be built around Braun.
Simon Holovnia
The biggest loser of this round. Leader of Poland 2050, Marshal of the Sejm and co-founder of the current ruling coalition... and the consequence as from the political margin. He lost the attention fight and missed the topic. Now he will most likely support Trzaskowski strongly, but his position in politics will systematically weaken, and he himself can look for a "soft landing" in another formation before the next election.
Adrian Zandberg
Although I am not his sympathizer, I must admit – he amazed positively. He jumped the Left candidate, Mrs. Biejat, and fell very well in the debates. He defended his views, he scored the government, he was substantive. But... remember, erstwhile he had the chance to co-ordinate, he chose the function of a convenient oppositionist. Would it be as strong present if he took work for real decisions?
Other candidates
Without much surprise – their results were alternatively consistent with predictions.
What's next? Will this election change anything?
Real change won't happen overnight. The second circular is the po-po-pi-pis clash again. For many voters it is simply a choice of "minor evil" alternatively than conviction. But something's starting to break. Young voters are sick of this war, they do not remember the times of the Polish People's Republic or the transformation – for them, the PO-PiS dispute is simply a relic of the past. Mentzen, Braun and Zandberg have gained a large advantage here, especially among those under the age of 30. possibly not yet, possibly not in 2 years, but in the next presidential election in 5 years, the voice of young people can find the outcome. And then – another parties, another names and another topics can begin to dominate. Very good.
From me to the end – #BylnieTrzaskowski
And you? How do you measure the results and the campaign? Who do you think will win the second circular and what will happen to Polish politics?
Przemysław Kicowski
