A fewer months ago, it seemed that everything in Hungarian politics would go according to a simple, compiled scenario. Since 2010, the Fidesz party, which has practically unlimited power, will win another spectacular triumph in the elections to the European Parliament and the crisis of opposition parties will deepen further.
However, the issue of pardoning a paedophile supporter by president Katalin Novák, her resignation and the emergence of a fresh movement of erstwhile Fidesz associate Péter Magyar turned Hungarian interior politics upside down. There has been a political crisis on an unprecedented scale for a very long time. Fideshu's popularity went upside down, in a fewer months the ruling organization lost over 300,000 voters.
Since the Fidesz affair, he has been incapable to regain control of public discourse. Everything revolves around Péter Magyar and his movement. Magyar appeared publically after the resignation of 2 major participants of the pardon case: president Novák and erstwhile Justice Minister Judit Vargi. He then announced that he had resigned from advanced positions in state companies. At the same time he openly criticized 1 of the most crucial ministers in Viktor Orbán's government, liable for directing the government's propaganda of Antal Rogán.
Until the outbreak of the Magyar affair, he was almost completely unknown. The public only knew that he was married to erstwhile Justice Minister Judit Vargi and head of the State Student Credit Center. His name began appearing more frequently in the press erstwhile Varga was divorced. Magyar's speech was all the more crucial that he belonged to the ellipse of Fidesz's most influential men over the years. Through his wife, he had insight into the interior affairs of the ruling organization and maintained close contact with many of the camp's top politicians. He appeared against Fidesz as—as he describes himself—a Christian-conservative erstwhile voter who was disappointed by the organization due to the ubiquitous corruption and completely centralised government propaganda in Orbán's system.
Péter Magyar is not the first critic of corruption in Hungary. The opposition has for years accused Orbán and his people of stealing EU money. The program besides announced by Magyar is not much different from what we have heard over the last fourteen years from the opposition: education and wellness reform, the end of EU funds, the construction of social housing, the warrant of public media independence.
However, the voters who want to change their government do not mind. As if from Péter Magyar it all sounded more credible than from politicians who in subsequent elections were incapable to defeat Orbán and Fidesz. At least specified conclusions can be drawn by the fact that Magyar mobilizes not only in Budapest but besides in the provinces specified crowds as the opposition would not be able to attract.
The approach to the European Union is simply a extremist difference. Péter Magyar, like Fidesz, is critical of the Community. According to him, the states of the Old Union apply different and unfair standards to fresh members, including Hungary, and the holding of due EU funds is considered a political issue. Magyar, however, has specified a charisma that nothing can deter his sympathizers.
At first, he powerfully denied that he was preparing to take on a political role, but in time it became clear that this was what he had in mind. He acquired the practically inactive TISZA Party, which according to Závecz Research, 1 of the largest public opinion poll centres in Hungary, has now become the strongest opposition formation. According to the latest poll, Péter Magyar's list of EPs among strong voters has 26 percent support and the Fidesz-KDNP list has 39 percent support. In the 2019 EP election, this consequence would supply Péter Magyar with 6–7 seats. At the time, the opposition Democratic Coalition (DK) was placed second behind Fidesz under the leadership of erstwhile Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, who won 4 seats in the European Parliament with 16% support.
The only weak point in Péter Magyar's movement is the fact that it is now 1 man show, which is clearly visible after the TISZA party's list to the EP. The first place is Magyar, there are no known names in politics. Among the candidates are: doctor influencer, erstwhile pastor of the Reformed Church, and besides a lawyer from London. On the wave of ever-increasing popularity in early May, Magyar announced that he would besides compete in the Budapest local elections. Based on the arrangement of forces, he has a good chance to get with his organization to the Capital Council and play a key function there in his next term.
In 2019, in the EP election, the support for Fidesz was 52%. According to analysts, a score higher than 45 percent would mean that the parties managed to stabilise their position. On the another hand, the consequence of about 40% or little can strengthen those voices inside the formation that call for urgent changes. Thus, the upcoming elections are an crucial test for Orbán and Magyar, and their result depends on the further arrangement of forces in Hungarian politics.
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András Mizsur – writer from Telex portal country department.
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