Poland after 1st round

Post-election comment quickly. First the systemic issues, then the opinion on the results of individual candidates.

The first trend, which is clear, is that of the current government. After only a year and a half, it has a majority of the population against each other, and it is simply a clear fast reunion of sympathy and support. And it was a government with a large credit for trust, hope and anticipation of change for the better. In fact, he no longer has a mandate to regulation and hastened elections must be sought, especially if the candidate of the neoliberal government for president loses in the second round.

The second trend is that in Poland there is simply a wave of opposition to elite liberalism. It is not the same as economical liberalism. Rather, it is simply a synthesis of the activities of liberal political oligarchy, large-business circles and liberal cultural agenda. The critical option for him received over 50% of the support erstwhile the agenda against about 40%, not counting Zandberg, who eludes this divided somewhat. This is simply a more hard dispute to describe than the current divisions and standard labels, and at the same time it is simply a dispute that is more and more global.

I would describe him as a war of the stronger and weaker—the stronger and the weaker multifaceted. This conflict does not run on the lines of the left and right, socialism and liberalism, etc. Rather, it runs through the lines of richer and poorer, "developed" and "backward", large and provincial, fashionable and unfashioned, global and local, decision-making and devoid of charge, larger and smaller, etc., etc. It is easy to overlook this division, and above all to mock specified a kind of speech "unless you say that Janusz Biznesu with a company in the state is weaker than a doctoral student from the capital or an average corruption from Krakow or Wrocław". The point is that various capitals, opportunities, opportunities and assets work together, and this is simply a different action than if only the financial capitals of exemplary people were put against each another at the minute of their lives. On the contractual side of the right hand, they are not only poorer/poor, although a class transfer from left to right has already been made, contrary to what utilized to be. On her side are besides those who have less/worse on another levels: symbolic, cultural, territorial, laifstajl, in terms of opportunities for development, etc., etc.

The "people" do not have much to do with canon left-wing readers today, but has a common denominator in the form of nonsubjective being weaker or at least subjective feeling specified – and social policies and sentiments are not only facts and data, but besides emotions. And the emotion is that if you are 50 years old and even as specified a businessman in the province, then in the sense of quantifiable assets you have more than 30 years old large-town “activist” or “modern” corpoludek of the low-level, but in any another way you may have worse or feel worse, and be bombarded with instructions from specified hyper-elity with which “activist” and “modernists” have more in common than you with the same hyper-lite. And erstwhile this provincial businessman is simply a dwindling store or a one-man laptop repair, their owners are a fewer floors below a somewhat older scientist, a more experienced corporate worker or a professional activist from a large NGO. Reading today's social division on lines only income at a given minute or theoretical state of ownership (the means of production) does not tell us about the planet of everything. And not only in Poland, besides in the US or France, where these lines of division into people and elite with its surroundings are not left-wing or right-wing or paid work versus own business, but mixed with another assets and forms of exclusion. Whoever doesn't see it will be blind and will lose.

This is very well seen in Polish election results among workers. Nawrocki received support over 35% of them, Mentzen 23%, Trzaskowski already only 17%, but Braun almost 11%, and Zandberg little than 3%. And more or little the same is erstwhile we apply another thematic keys from a akin plot: education, province/largeness, etc.

Liberal hyperelita is rejected by a broad front of the weaker. The spells that say that workers have “false consciousness” will not help, since they vote for the libertarian Mentzen, that the “brown wave” something, that a large proportion of women have “ gone astray” due to the fact that they vote for Nawrocki, Mentzen or Braun. This is simply an expression of political and cognitive helplessness watered down by paternal sage and misunderstanding of what is happening and why. Incidentally, since we are already on the "brown wave", it is worth congratulating the alleged anti-fascists. This is the only profession in the planet where you can make large money, the results of your work are getting worse, but still, alternatively of getting fired for mediocre results – you get more jobs. Antifascism, or the authoritative ideology of modern neoliberal oligarchy, is simply a kind of perpetuum mobile.

This does not mean that Trzaskowski will not win in the second round. The liberal hyperelita will throw immense amounts of resources to win, not back distant from any provocation, lie, etc. Secondly, the front of the "right" (I compose in quotes, due to the fact that in Poland it is actually right-wing, but even the neighbouring Slovakia and the Czech Republic remind that it is not specified labels that are crucial for the current social division) the anger is not uniform and the results of its candidates do not add up in a simple way. But I am talking about trends and this about the global trend or the Western world. In it, the hyperlite is increasingly rejected and increasingly challenged by a broad front of people excluded in many respects: not only financially or professionally, but besides symbolically, culturally, territorially, etc. And this is the key political trend of the coming times, the fundamental line of divisions. Not left and right, not social and free-market, etc., alternatively nonsubjective and no little crucial subjective sense of being weaker, losing, marginalized on different fronts or any of them.

Now it's individual time.

Trzaskowski – got a fang consecutive into a panicky face. It was not helped by the organization of power, it was not helped by long-term recognition, it was not helped by the large money, it was not helped by the support of 90% of public media and those called "freedom" (their "freedom") that we can see at specified moments erstwhile they were openly and forcefully sided with neoliberal oligarchy), it did not aid revealed a fewer days before the elections illegally making elections by illegally supporting this candidate's run with a large amount of money spent on online promotion and attacks on opponents. The guy made a mediocre score for so many assets, and even more so, erstwhile we know that another candidates of the neoliberal coalition fell out badly, and they didn't take distant his vote, as was the case in the erstwhile election with a good Holowna score.

Nawrocki – it's expected to be only the consequence that the PiS has more or little support. But for a man, first of all, until recently, more unknown, second with a fierce right-wing competition, and 3rd and foremost attacked as only liberal oligarchy can. He survived, persisted, almost caught up with soap from the capital city hall, and before the second circular is in the offensive. In addition, Nawrocki played on his own rules – he didn't preach anything he didn't believe in, he didn't launder. Meanwhile, Trzaskowski, like the PO before, made a rag out of their own views and long-term narrative, going into anti-immigrantism, anti-Ukrainianism, border defence, pretended hard course against Germany, hiding an elite “ecology” and liberal vice etc. What besides marks a wider change in social sentiment.

Mentzen – he did not make the consequence he dreamed of, there was no minion with Nawrocki, for which the liberal hyperelita played and which was told by many analytical brainists about always missed forecasts and always well-paid for them. But he made the consequence truly concrete, the highest in the past of his formation in any election, and in addition, his communicative is on top, and it was he who did what the left had announced for many years: he changed the discourse. I disagree with this discourse, but objectively, they are the ones who succeed.

Braun – litmus paper of what moods are like, how angry people are at the form of the world. possibly blindly and foolishly, but that is besides democracy, and if specified a character makes more than 6% de facto of nothing, and drives distant 2 candidates of the left, including a candidate of the ruling left, and a marshal of the Sejm and a black horse of erstwhile elections, it says the same thing for itself, and breaking hands and spells of lignity are only an expression of helplessness in general, and even more so due to the fact that Braun with specified a consequence is only the 3rd in terms of support of a powerfully right-wing candidate.

Hołównia – full failure, blamash. From popularity, almost a imagination of being the quarterback and deposing of Tusk/PO on the liberal flank, to the consequence below the electoral threshold for the party, and besides at a time erstwhile too Poland 2050 was a PSL candidate. This is the price paid for kunktatory, being indistinguishable from Trzaskowski, a deal with PO, participation in mediocre governments, failure of the effect of novelty and joining neoliberal oligarchy. A full well-deserved disaster, sealed in the addendum with a "transfer" at erstwhile of the votes to Trzaskowski, i.e. full vassalization. Cry, Simon, cry.

Zandberg – good and bad. For a organization candidate with poll support of 1-2%, an objectively weak and mediocre party, this is undoubtedly a good result. All the better due to the fact that he received support higher than a competitor from the left, which had much more assets than he did. This is simply a good starting point for the offensive and fortifying noticeable support for the Independent organization Together. On the another hand, for the decade of the party's existence, of course, these little than 5% support is simply a mediocre result. Just compare it to what the Confederate did at a akin time, and even more so erstwhile Zandberg did not have very strong competition on the left. In addition, the candidate gained the top support in strong and full circles, which puts on his head the sense of specified left-wingness, and part of this support is the temporary sheepish momentum of unstable young people and the repetition of the "Zandberg effect" from 2015, later squandered, which is simply a alternatively weak foundation for building something larger. But objectively, good work against the background of this party's so-farts. Of course, this success was achieved by the communicative and priorities that this party, like me, advised a long time ago: a lot about social, economical and real problems, and small about vice and niche quirks – but then by the people of the same organization who did it now, we were massively muddy, and today, of course, no 1 will apologize and admit us.

Biejat – a mediocre consequence in general, even below the polling quotations of the fresh Left, and against the background of Zandberg's score it is almost a blamage. And it is hard to be surprised, due to the fact that the space for specified views is insignificant erstwhile on the 1 hand there is Trzaskowski, in which hopes can be placed both little clever progressives to the morals and turning to the right, but inactive "modern" a somewhat progressive burghership (which so much does not want to open borders, Ukrainians, vocals, ecology and what else, and Biejat inactive wants), and on the another hand there is Zandberg, an option as so social + inactive not right culturally. In addition, it is not the problem of Biejat itself, due to the fact that this organization does not have anyone much better to put out, but the organization offer itself – for whom it is at all these times and for whom it will be, if Together, however, it began to orbit in polls around the electoral threshold alternatively of spinning around 1-2%.

The results of Holownia and Biejat are most likely an introduction to the full marginalization of their formation in the government coalition. Tusk, on the 1 hand, needs them for the majority, but he knows that they almost mean nothing, and they request Tusk even more to not be a complete margin, and he will usage it. So it will be a completely neoliberal-hegemonic government.

Remigius Okraska

Photo in the title: photograph by Tomasz Chmielewski