In the shadow of the presidential run and in the polled support for Law and Justice, the right wing camp continues a political game for the future. On the 1 hand, the PiS is trying to regain its initiative, on the another hand, the Confederacy is seeking maximum political profit. At the intersection of these 2 interests, the name of Andrzej Duda appears as a possible candidate for Prime Minister. It's not a coincidence.
According to “Newsweek”, between the Law and the Confederacy, there is simply a silent agreement: no common attacks, no caution in words, and behind the scenes – conversations about cooperation. The key is the electorate of Sławomir Mentzen. The Law and Justice doesn't want to alienate him, the Confederacy doesn't want to lose him. That's why both sides are roaming. The PiS avoids criticism of Mentzen and the Confederacy saves the PiS. This is purely pragmatic – there is no relationship in it, there are common goals.
For the Law and Justice, it's either be or not be. It has lost much of its support, and without the Confederacy there is no question of rebuilding the force. The organization so promotes Karol Nawrocki as a candidate “compatible” with the expectations of Confederate voters. Nawrocks are to be conservative, anti-systemic, and at the same time more predictable than Mentzen. In the second circular of the presidential election, the PiS is counting on it.
Andrzej Duda: a fresh function after the presidency?
The situation around the president himself is no little interesting. Andrzej Duda ends his term, but does not intend to vanish from politics. Marcin Mastalerek, his closest advisor, probes the anticipation of premiere.
“The mastalerek builds around Duda facilities that could take control after the election,” says 1 of the politicians at the right quoted by the weekly.
It's a real script. If, after the parliamentary elections, the PiS–Confederation government can be built, Duda could take the lead as a “compromising leader” – loyal to the PiS, but acceptable to the Confederation. This would be a political reversal of roles – the president becomes Prime Minister and his squad gains influence again.
Trzaskowski vs Mentzen: conflict of the Electorate
The Civic Coalition adopts a completely different strategy. Rafał Trzaskowski's staff is not counting on the support of Mentzen voters – he wants to discourage them from voting. Communication is dominated by warnings: the Confederation is simply a ban on abortion, paid studies, the abolition of social programmes. The goal is to show Mentzen to be extremist and his voters frequently do not know all his views.
KO plays a low turnout among young, free-market Confederate voters, hoping that they will not support Nawrocki or Trzaskowski. This could tip the scales in the second round.
What's next?
The puzzle on the right is just beginning. The PiS plays for survival, the Confederate for greater influence, and Andrzej Duda for a political future. The silent coalition may not be adequate if Trzaskowski keeps the lead in the polls and effectively disproves Mentzen's radicalism.
But if the right hands manage to keep a common front and the Confederate voters will be persuaded to Nawrocki – the script with Duda as Prime Minister does not sound like political fiction. It's more like a plan B of the Law and Justice for a uncertain future.
