As you know, forecasts are risky, especially erstwhile they concern the future, but I can't aid but foretell 1 thing: the devastating defeat of Mrs Magdalena Cucumber in the presidential election. Let's go back to that post-election note, and I would like to invitation you to make fun of my forecast if it's not right.
A pessimist is simply a man who enjoys being wrong. If Mrs. Cucumber could shoot a two-digit score and endanger the po-PiS duo, I'd be so glad that the shame for an untimely prophecy won't spoil it for me.
I'll make it more precise to make it easier to mock: I don't mean that the SLD candidate just won't make it to the second round. Under the shining leadership of Napieralski and Miller we are utilized to the fact that SLD is simply a second-class party.
"Also wounds". "Guest starring". A mediocre athlete who, however, can number on a bronze medal.
Well, this time I foretell that Mrs. Cucumber's performance will be so devastating that it will be doubtful to last in the autumn of the parliamentary elections. Definitely closer to 5% than the 13.6% he picked up 5 years ago. Napierski.
A consequence close to the electoral threshold will trigger in the field structures of the SLD, already disappointed with the decline from the podium in the local elections, the syndrome of a “sinking ship”. Local leaders will be bribed by groups with a better chance of survival, triggering a vicious circle, the worse chances, the worse chances.
I don't know, possibly all this is historically inevitable. The Civic Platform was yet born in 2001 in consequence to the next suicide moves of the penultimate head of the Freedom Union, Leszek Balcerowicz.
Balcerovich set a way for Miller. In the mid-1990s, the Freedom Union played in the top league. She participated in government coalitions, shaped Polish politics.
Under Balcerovich's leadership, she fell to the second league and then to the district, and then to “the flag to bring out”. In 2001, she received 3.1% of the vote and did not enter the Sejm.
However, from the ruins of the Union the Platform grew, which rapidly became the most crucial opposition organization first, and then the most successful political task of the 3rd Republic. possibly Miller has to bring the SLD under 5% first so something can yet decision on.
Why don't I believe in Magdalene Cucumber's success? I don't even mean that he's not fit to be president. We're only asking the SLD candidate to be president present to lose elegantly, with a two-digit score like Napieralski.
Simply putting forward a candidacy of a individual who has never yet won any elections and has no political achievements worth mentioning, discredits the SLD. This is simply a further continuation of ideas specified as "pretty to the camera, dark people will buy it".
Such spinfelcherski the thought that possibly a guy from large Brother, or possibly a justice from "Stars dancing under the ice", or possibly Miss Polonia, or possibly a random man trained by Tymochovich in professional hand knickers, was already a lot. It never worked, but at most specified a individual would enter the Sejm for a while (but it is not known whether it was an election locomotive or a brake car).
Polish voters are who they are, but they can't get caught with those numbers. Rather, I would attribute to them an exaggerated fetishization of political experience (e.g. leading to the self-government pathology of "eternal mayors" and "unsinkable presidents").
Polish voters want to know what the candidate can do in politics – and here always incumbent has easier, due to the fact that he can show the achievements of the erstwhile word and if he has not completely failed it, he gives him an advantage. They besides want to know what the candidate thinks.
What did Mrs. Cucumber do? What are his views? crap knows. For now, we have only heard skewers lacking content about “the imagination of active presidency alternatively than passive”.
Come on, fantasy. I'm guessing the candidate's in favour of the presidency, not cool. Even healthy, not sick. Pretty, too, not ugly. But what else, Mr. Dick?
We have a bitter strike in Silesia. We have another Arlukovich's compromise. We have an assassination in Paris and Tusk's ideas from the series "more peculiar services powers" (yes, that worked out large last time).
This is all an chance for the opposition candidate to present his counteroffer. He applied for a mediator. He flashed with something.
Cucumber's quiet. seemingly by heaven's will.
