What is Rafał Trzaskowski's postulate that you associate most with this campaign? The thought of taking 800 plus "inactive Ukrainians" comes to head first.
You'll say it's a vicious choice. However, Trzaskovsky's election staff is arrogant of this postulate. On his authoritative election page in the tab “Common Sense in social life” picking up 800 plus Ukrainians appears as the first point.
Moreover, Donald Tusk immediately picked up this postulate. Right after the announcement of this proposal statedthat "will be dealt with urgently by the government".
Many economists find the full thought pointless. We have no problem with the flood of non-working Ukrainians, and tightening the rules will only increase the cost of bureaucracy and exposure the failure of the benefits of those who deserve them.
Let us be honest: there is no substantive justification behind this request. This is an unsuccessful effort to appeal to the anti-immigrant electorate of Sławomir Mentzen, Karol Nawrocki or Grzegorz Braun. 1 of many manifestations of the "turn to the right" of Trzaskowski for the election campaign.
It didn't work out...
How'd it go with the right turn? Not good. Trzaskowski achieved a consequence in the election much lower than the poll average. And most benefited from this utmost right - Mentzen and Braun won a full of over 20% of the vote.
And it truly shouldn't surprise anyone. We have, for example, analysis of 2022, where it was verified whether conventional political parties taking over the slogans of the far right—especially those anti-immigration—helps to weaken their influence. Researchers analysed over 100 elections in respective Western European countries from 1976 to 2017. They looked not only at the results of the election but besides at how voters decision their support between parties.
The conclusions are clear: alternatively of weakening the far right, specified strategies strengthen it. erstwhile mainstream parties effort to "penetrate" radicals with their own rhetoric, they frequently only authenticate their demands, reassure voters that radicals were right from the beginning – and the first is always better than a copy. As a result, many voters decision their support to the far right.
I do not know who told Trzaskowski to hit anti-Ukrainian rhetoric and do another bows to the right, but not only did he not get fresh voters for him, but he caused him problems before the second round. Everything points to the fact that Trzaskowski will now focus on simple rhetoric: democratic Poland and brown Poland, “normal” Poland and “radical” Poland. This opposition would most likely work better if the candidate KO had not tried to powerfully match this extremist Poland, which he will now effort to defend us from.
What kind of liberalism is that?
However, run rhetoric is only part of the wider problem that the Civic Coalition and its allies have.
They started their regulation well: a rise of 500 plus on 800, higher salaries for the budget. But then they stagnated. They were loaded into a long dispute over the CPK, entangled in unsuccessful attempts to account for the PiS, and Donald Tusk pitched from deregulation projects to the imagination of a "patriotic economy".
In all this, the organization seemed to have forgotten that the electoral promises had to be met – and these were partnerships, liberalisation of abortion law and better wellness protection.
It's not just that the government didn't adopt the appropriate laws and they didn't even give a chance. Dudzie veto them (which, by the way, would be a good argument for Trzaskowski today, due to the fact that it would remind voters what could block the president of PiS). And the thing is, at any point, they completely let go of these subjects. They did not even want to pretend that they were doing something in this direction – that they tried to fight, that they remembered.
Trzaskowski presents himself as a liberal. For any voters, it may be disturbing how easy his political environment has given up on things that are considered the core of liberalism.
Fighting for women's rights and minorities is 1 thing. But there was also, for example, the suspension of the right to asylum – despite serious doubts, whether this does not violate the constitution and global law.
The Citizens' Coalition seemed the most determined in 1 substance – reductions in wellness contributions to entrepreneurs. It was a liberal line that the rulers refused to let go. And 1 occupation they could do.
Will there be a return?
Trzaskowski may inactive win the presidency. However, this will not be due to the candidate KO, but only to the evidence of how liberal and left-wing voters fear PiS and its possible allies from the Confederacy.
If this is truly a fight for the protection of democracy, then Trzaskowski and his election staff did not emergence to the challenge. They gotta number on voters to do it for them. The voters, on the another hand, are forced to number on KO to draw conclusions again. The question is, how many times can you compose individual a blank check in politics?
The results of Mentzen and Braun show that something is changing in Poland. The challenge is not only the PiS, but besides the alleged alt right. Fear of Kaczyński and attempts to mobilize around KO candidates cease to work. He calls on Roman Giertych that KO not adequate and besides slow to account for the regulation of the Law and Justice, they become increasingly ridiculous. The voters, especially the young, clearly don't shoot it.
If Trzaskowski and KO neglect again and consider it adequate to scare PiS, they will not only lose to him, but besides drive the anti-systemic rebellion that Mentzen uses best today. alternatively of protecting democracy, they will add to its crisis. It is time for reflection for Trzaskowski, KO and their allies.
