Five years ago, hundreds of thousands of women took to the streets in protest of the conviction of the Court of Malta. It seemed that something in the country had broken, that space had opened up for progressive change. Today, you can see that if that scuffle always had a chance at political articulation, it was wasted. After Nawrocki's victory, everything indicates that the changes that were fought for at the time could come at the earliest in 2030 – if at all.
For progressive voters and voters, Nawrocki's triumph means enlisting an alt-right to not even say – a reactionary brake. For the next 5 years, there are no partnerships, legal abortion or statutory changes leading to a secular state.
Of course, 1 can cynically ask what difference does it make if the present Sejm was incapable to vote them out anyway, blocked by the conservative anchor of the government majority in the form of PSL. Nawrocki's triumph means, however, that even if in a hypothetical script in 2027 the solo majority won the organization Together, without 3/5 votes in the parliament Prime Minister Adrian Zandberg would not break the presidential veto. Trzaskowski gave at least a theoretical chance that something could change for the better in Poland for women or LGBT+ community in this decade. Nawrocki's win yet shuts it down.
Moreover, considering how much the political scene shifted to the right this year, Donald Tusk may consider that Trzaskowski lost due to the fact that he was besides left-wing-progressive for Polish conditions. Finally, the presidential election was always won by Conservatives in Poland, with the exception of Kwasniewski. The only president from PO – Bronisław Komorowski – represented the party's right wing, and present clearly shows that the Platform has moved so far to the left that it no longer finds itself in it. If the Platform considers that the increasing power of the right hand should be bypassed from the right flank – as it had done before on migration – the space for left-wing politicians in the government will shrink even more.
If, as part of the thought of moving to the right, the government turns to the neoliberal side, searching for the Confederacy's votes for the laws rejected by the left—and thus examining the ground under a possible future coalition—then it cannot be excluded that Nawrocki will usage a veto to defend certain interests of poorer voters. The problem is that akin vetoes will play politically exclusively for the PiS, making it even more hard for even the most anti-government left to scope this group of electorate.
Left already must think what to do
The win by Trzaskowski would give breath not only to KO, but to the full government majority. She would revive the religion of her constituents, including those left-wing ones, in the sense of continuing in a hard and frequently frustrating coalition. Nawrocks, most likely playing with the paralysis of the government's work, with which the left will be much harder to communicate than Duda, are totally changing the strategical situation of the government's left.
It must already seriously consider the coastal conditions of the current arrangement, due to the fact that it can be expected that it will proceed to lose support, for which smaller coalitions than the Hegemonic KO will pay a higher price. This is the minute erstwhile it is essential to prepare in the last hotel even for the option of leaving the table – although in specified a way that it is clear and understandable for voters to mention to their values and interests.
It is very possible that we will have parliamentary elections next year if the 2 main centres of the duople consider that this is the only way to deal with the wedge on the Presidential Palace – the Sejm line. Much faster than anyone on the left would have assumed, so the questions will should be answered: “whether to put on 1 list or on a separate start”.
No fuses
At the same time, Nawrocki's triumph opens the way to the future PiS-Confession coalition. The law is doomed to this coalition. As much as the left would not go in the alt-left, Kaczyński would never put on specified an alliance, having on the right-hand side a young, dynamic organization that imposes a language, a way of reasoning and themes of much of his own formation.
Perhaps, however, the PiS – Confederacy coalition was waiting for us anyway, given the social dynamics and inability of the current majority to deliver projects applicable to voters. However, Trzaskovsky's triumph would draw a brake on specified a coalition and warrant its most antiprogressive ideas.
In the close future, the possible of the regulation of the right is far more extremist than that of 2015–23. And without the fuses, due to the fact that we don't have a functioning constitutional judiciary. You can anticipate far-reaching changes in the spirit of Ordo Iuris, a policy utilizing the tools of the state to actively advance or even impose on the public conservative values, ideologies and lifestyles. possibly including Orbanian actions aimed at the anticipation of free action of the misseen media, NGOs, cultural institutions.
It is hard to imagine Nawrocki blocking the authoritarian urges of the right-wing coalition. Nor do I see him as the guardian of the social heritage of the Law and Justice of the first word of regulation of Szydło. If the fresh government of the PiS–Confederation decides on a neoliberal return, Nawrocki will surely not block it.
For many groups connected with the left, life in Poland will shortly become much more soulful, claustrophobic, shrinking artistic or academic freedom. And even a strong opposition left organization in the next Sejm – although it is crucial that it is in it – will not change much here.
All this in the context of a global right- populist backlash. For over a decade, erstwhile the PiS first took a double election, in the age of brexit and Trump's left and Liberals repeated that hard times were going on. But for the dense times of the erstwhile era of PiS hegemony, erstwhile Rafał Trzaskowski was losing for the first time, we may inactive miss him.
