Łukasz Warzecha: A Real Test by Karol Nawrocki

Every policy that has an crucial function is assessed, among another things, in relation to first expectations. You can handle objectively well, but if expectations were overexposed, the evaluation would fail. Hence, part of the political game is to effort to balance this parameter: on the 1 hand, the expectations of voters request to be stimulated adequate to want to trust a politician; on the another hand, they cannot be over-excited, due to the fact that nobody in real life will meet specified edified expectations, and this will mean disappointment and consequently falling ratings.

Karol Nawrocki faces specified a problem today, though – paradoxically – in a sense it is easier for him than for another presidents in the past, erstwhile Polish politics were somewhat little polarized. In countries where the political agreement is based on extremes, even a politician cast in a theoretically typical office, and so mostly little active in the current political struggle, it does not should be mostly afraid about the expectations of that part of the citizens who did not support it in the election (assuming that the presidential election is universal) due to the fact that they anticipate nothing from it. To his opponents, specified a individual is simply an enemy, and no substance what he does, he will not satisfy them. Let's look at the situation in the US: Donald Trump's problem is not Democrats and their supporters – president Trump doesn't care about them at all – but the emerging disappointments of various elements of his politics by Republican politicians or voters.

This was a regulation that seemed to be misunderstood by Andrzej Duda – in many moments it was possible to have the impression that he was trying to win sympathy for those who did not vote for him, which was pointless, and that the decisions of the outgoing president caused the amazement of supporters of the conservative worldview.

Here you can see – at least this way you can presume – the first advantage of Karol Nawrocki. He seems to realize that in highly divided Poland the president should not search praise from all sides, but that he was elected by a circumstantial group of citizens with defined views and that it is their expectations to meet. Mr. Nawrocki does not embezzle left-wing voters or even a liberal center.

The expectations of those who supported Mr Nawrocki in early June are not small, and they are highly divergent even within this group. The beginning of the first word of office the president immediately thinks – it's completely natural – about the second. This in turn means that he must now take care that the electorate from the second circular will leave as fewer voters as possible who can support him again in 5 years. Here the fresh president has a bigger problem than Andrzej Duda had in 2015. At the time the political scenery was very different from today, and on the contractual right there was no alternate as expressive to the Law and Justice as present are the Confederation and the Crown. Paweł Kukiz, whose voters powerfully contributed to Mr. Duda's victory, was a fresh phenomenon, and his voters had expectations far little defined than today's voters of Mr. Braun, Bosak and Mentzen. They just wanted change and any kind of freshness, and Mr. Duda was a good player in this trend. Today, this is not enough, especially since Mr Nawrocki is not replacing individual like Mr Komorowski, but the president from the same political camp.

The fresh president must effort to reconcile expectations on the 1 hand powerfully social, powerfully anti-trash conventional PiS electorate, on the another hand much more freer, liberal economically, younger electorate of authentically right groups. conventional PiS voters anticipate about the continuation of Andrzej Duda's policy – with any modifications, reflecting the current course of his beloved party. There is so no longer, for example, any anticipation that Mr Nawrocki will be highly pro-Ukrainian, due to the fact that at the minute this motive from the PiS transmission fell (although there is no warrant that he will not return). It is, however, an anticipation that it will keep in its decisions the communicative of the collision of “Polish solidarity” with “Polish liberal” which has been the basis of the policy of the Law and Justice for years. Even though in the fresh period of their governments in practice small has already resulted from this, due to the fact that money for "solidarity" simply ended. It is besides an anticipation – especially embarrassing for Karol Nawrocki – that the “president of the PiS” will not origin this organization problems specified as Mr Duda, even in 2017, during the dispute over the law of court.

Meanwhile, voters on the another side of the right wing, especially those from Mr. Mentzen, but besides those from Mr. Braun, do not anticipate to sustain the hypocritical communicative of the collision so described 2 Polish. On the contrary, they are inclined to a much more individualistic and economically liberal course. This is possibly not so problematic for the fresh president as long as the current coalition continues. With the fresh power it can be harder – everything depends on the configuration it would create. There is surely no anticipation in this group of voters that the fresh president will be alert to the call from Nowogrodzka.

Significant expectations have been raised by Mr Nawrocki himself with his campaign, during which he pointed out in a fewer points the distance to the policy of the Law and Justice. This includes a much sharper course towards Ukraine. In this case, it will not be hard to meet expectations, due to the fact that against the background of the outgoing president on Ukraine, it is adequate to be simply realistic.

Mr Nawrocki should not have any problems with the President's image of being more assertive as long as he is acting under co-habitation conditions. Characteristically – as far as it can be estimated present – he is simply a much tougher man than Andrzej Duda, who made many amazing moves especially at the end of his second term. On the another hand, it is not hard to appear assertive erstwhile political opponents are on the government's side. The outgoing president had an objectively more hard situation in this regard, as most of his office was ruled by people from his own political camp. At the same time, the claim – which just appeared on state tv – that he listened to Mr. president Kaczyński for 10 years is simply a complete nonsense. This kind of relation ended in 2017. – although it can be said that it is 2 years besides late.

If the power in Poland is taken over by the widely understood right, Mr Nawrocki will face a akin challenge: it is not easy to show independency and assertiveness towards his own. There is simply a paradox in this: on the 1 hand, as I mentioned, in polarized politics, the president does not gotta take care of the expectations of the opposing voters or commentators – who would surely at the time urge him to be hostile to the rulers – but on the another hand he is not well seen even by his own voters, if he had become just a passive notary of the laws coming to him from the Sejm. There is indeed a contradiction in this that even a sober politician can't cope with, and that is not Mr. Nawrocki. But until reality puts him before specified a challenge, there is inactive time.

At the same time, Mr Nawrocki made any concrete promises, which would be easy to account for. For example, he announced a large deal of legislative activity, which is the frequent usage of the power to submit own draft laws in the Sejm. Mr. Duda seldom utilized this option. As part of this activity, he announced, among another things, an effort to fight the regulation of the green order. It'll be very easy to verify.

There was besides the announcement of an intense appeal for the right to convene the Cabinet Council (Council of Ministers chaired by the President), with this announcement for the fresh head of state possibly embarrassing. The Cabinet Council has no decision-making powers and if it is abused, it will rapidly turn into a barren and boring theatre.

Thus, speaking in a certain simplicity – but in the sphere of shaping the political image specified simplification is crucial – the general anticipation of the fresh president is that he will be a tough contender who cannot be defeated by Tusk, Żurka, Kierwiński, but besides an independent player, although clearly standing on the side of the right-wing paradigm. In the first phase of office, erstwhile Mr Nawrocki is just learning him, his situation will be more comfortable due to the fact that he will act against the background of unfavorable power. His constituents will be willing to forgive him more and reward his moves against the coalition. However, the real test of this presidency will come erstwhile the governments take the right.

Luke Warches