It's been a while since we talked about politics. We besides had a minute in Poland from the permanent campaign. It's se ne vrati.
Already little than a year until the European elections in May 2014. In autumn there will be local government, and in 2015 – a replay of the presidential-parliamentary combo.
Euro-election results can already be foreseen. The platform will get a terrible beating due to the fact that she has already managed to alienate everyone – drivers and passengers, celebrities and teachers, clergy and anti-clericists.
Nothing like this is gonna happen this year to make it change. The only question is who will usage it better, and to clarify: whether Leszek Miller or Jarosław Kaczyński will be more pathetic this year.
The fight will be equal, so it's hard to predict. However, I would bet my money on Miller's further streak of embarrassment (Forget a speech for May 1st, and it's not even specific, it's a contentless phrase that could be easy replaced with another contentless phrases! jizas haploid krajst!).
So – Euro-elections will bring an unexpectedly good consequence of the Law and Justice, bad consequence of the PO and conventional 3rd place for the SLD. And Palikot? You can see that like Lepper or Tyminski, he turned out to be the star of 1 hit. Euro-election will be the final snap in this home of cards.
After the Euro-elections on the Platform, the search for a guilty defeat will begin and the fronda against Tusk is already open. The atmosphere will be bad, and it will be worse by the fall self-government, most likely completed by another beating.
The second will be more painful for the Platform, as long as the Euro-Election rate is only 4 years of luxury for a fistful of fortunate people, the fight for self-government is simply a fight for territorial organization structures. This is no longer about the consumption of mules at the taxpayer's expense, this is about power.
And so the conflicted and possibly organizationally cracked Platform will enter in 2015 – the year of the presidential and parliamentary elections. If I number well (invited to the citizen's correction), they will first be presidential (May or June), then parliamentary (September or October).
Unless there is simply a political miracle, we can already hazard predicting their results. president Komorowski became president of Komorowski thanks to the negative electorate Kaczyński, who in the second circular against Kaczyński would even support Cthulhu.
I would do it with enthusiasm, due to the fact that after 2 decades of voting for "minor evil", I would be happy for a change. However, if Kaczyński does not take off, he will just exhibit individual else (though the celebrated Universal method Candidate) – I, for example, will stay home. Something tells me I'm not the only one.
So we can have a repeat of the 2005 elections (which I besides did not go to). First the winner of the PiS candidate in the presidential election (real, if not Kaczyński), then the winner of the PiS in the parliamentary election.
And then? Here we go again. A weak coalition that's going to be creaking from the beginning. It could be any divided (post)PO-PiS, or the creation of an “appetizer”, whatever.
After winning the PiS, he will gotta settle the case in Smolensk's case or get off the potty. Either way, it'll end in a brawl. The Secret Service will start surveillance. each other. The ministers will be waving recorders again and calling it nails. The prosecutors will play again LARP Pacman.
I uncertainty they'll last that full term. Kaczyński is like Palikot – he can only lose. If he accidentally goes besides well, he doesn't know what to do about it and provokes a disaster.
What do I say as a voter? As a voter, I will be about a 4th of a century from watching the same Tusk, Kaczyński, Komorowski, Macierewicz, Pawlak and Miller change from chair to chair.
Everyone in this counter-edans has already been mortal enemy and faithful ally. But the reality has changed since the circular Table only that they are a 4th century older.
In the erstwhile election the PO received my vote as a freeway bonus. In this term, they did not deserve a bonus and that will not change until 2015. But no 1 else deserves it.
So I focus on observing the political arena with The mockery lodge. possibly there'll be a sensible left by 2018, and if there's not, don't bother me, just throw in any popcorn.
