The consequence of the Sunday elections may specify the form of the Polish political scene in the coming years. This hypothesis is certifiable by the subsequent phrases of the campaign.
And it's not that there's going to be another change of power within the bipartisan strategy in 2 years. It is more than that: many indicate that the result of Nawrocki's confrontation with Trzaskowski will be the beginning of the political career of 1 of the 2 organization leaders – Donald Tusk or Jarosław Kaczyński. And this announces the refurbishment of the arrangement of forces in politics and – possibly – the entry into the game of fresh fictions.
Blood Weeks
Hence the large brutality of the election run in fresh weeks. For respective months, the staff's operations were alternatively slippery. A good alibi for this different escapism was Donald Trump's folly, which amazed the leaders with its radicalism. The acceleration took place thanks to Rafał Trzaskowski's staff and a alternatively risky proposal for a debate in a form of one-on-one with Karol Nawrocki in Koński.
The course of subsequent events is well known, there is no point in reporting it here. Suffice it to say that from that minute on, from day to day, the run was gaining momentum and brutality. The apogee came after the first round, erstwhile both major candidates realized that they were facing an highly leveled fight. At the time, 2 bloody weeks had already begun, erstwhile the opponents—sometimes completely thoughtlessly—put their sticks on their heads, without believing in the knockout, or alternatively with the hope that the attack would be the best form of defense, or a good way to cover uncomfortable accusations.
Both parties threw everything on the scales: Donald Tusk pressed on the coalitions who were going to support Trzaskowski. any faster (like Holovnia and Kosiniak-Kamish), others with theatrical phlegm and procrastination (Magdalena Biejat). Karol Nawrocki in turn decided to do almost anything to get the alt right-wing electorate of candidates: Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun. Therefore, without blinking an eye, he accepted the alleged Torun Declaration, even abandoning the concept of expanding American flows to Ukraine, strategical for his formation and Polish abroad policy. Similarly, he made a characteristic feature of the largest opposition organization of social sensitivity, which he left somewhere on the side of the A1 motorway.
However, the most crucial event of these 2 weeks of election run was Donald Tusk's individual and desperate commitment. Not due to the fact that he said something peculiarly stupid or highly smart. But due to the fact that it shows us how advanced the rate of these choices is for both groups and their leaders.
Duopol problem
Tusk takes quite a few risks getting active in his denomination's campaign. There is surely a political agenda behind this, as both candidates inactive gotta mobilize a large proportion of voters who supported their organization facilities in 2023. Therefore, Tusk – in the name of the known regulation "all hands on board" – said that if he personally hits the alarmist tone, the effect from almost 2 years ago can be repeated and the voters willing to support the PO again.
But Tusk's engagement has other, much more crucial causes. This is due to the fact that the consequence of these presidential elections will prove to be a problem for 1 of the 2 leaders of organization duopol. If Nawrocki wins, this success will accelerate the erosion of Tusk's power. If the winner turns out to be Trzaskowski, it will be a signal for the flowers on the right side of the lobbying environments behind the change of the leader of PiS. I'm going to hazard the hypothesis that electoral processes can take months, and no 1 is giving power distant from that, simply, but there's no way to avoid them. After these presidential elections, then, the Tusk or Kaczyński authorities will fall.
This will not necessarily consequence in the disintegration of many of the duopoles. But it is not the bipartisan strategy itself that is simply a problem here, but that both parties competing for power in Poland are hostages to their leaders: their ambitions, frustrations, fears and expectations.
The AD 2025 presidential election will so decide how profoundly the policy will change over the next 2 years, due to the fact that they will decide on the position of leaders of the 2 largest parties. The fall of the power of Tusk will lead to the gradual rotting of the Civic Platform, and the fall of Kaczyński to a fast crack in the organization and the emergence of fresh forces on the right.
Who can gain and who can lose?
From this point of view, the pose of Sławomir Mentzen is not very clear, which, after being allowed into the "spinal trap" by Rafał Trzaskowski, was explained by a makiawelic trick improving the negotiating position of the Confederation. The "confeence" gains only by maintaining an equal distance to both sides of the duopol, but its electoral base was built mainly by identifying the economical programme differences between it and PiS. It is so in the widely understood conservative universe. This means that the most he can gain only in the PiS-owski electorate after the eventual fall of the leadership of Jarosław Kaczyński, unless he decides to go by way of Marine Le Pen and abandon the conservative worldview identity to gain a liberal centre.
If the process of degrading liberal democracy continues to decision towards identity policies, radicals will be the main beneficiaries, namely the erosion of the power of Tusk and Kaczyński will strengthen the Together organization and the Confederate accordingly, provided that both groups keep an eye on their electorate – any anti-capitalists, others conservative freedomists.
Kaczyński imagination and Tusk cover
Sunday elections can importantly influence the form of the Polish political scene in the coming years. I can't answer the question at what rate. 1 thing is certain: we are facing radicalization of politics and the death of old chieftains. presently the identity needs of the electorates are inactive trying to support both PiS, and PO. The erstwhile become with the free Polish version of the MAGA, the second blocker of “fascists”. But the consequence of I circular of elections shows that both parties share a smaller part of cake. fresh cohorts of electorates are already coming, thirsty for more extremist changes. Kaczyński responded to this by Karol Nawrocki, i.e. he turned out to be a bigger visionary than Tusk, who, to the presidential clash, designated a well-known Liberal, Rafał Trzaskowski. If the Prime Minister wanted to fight for something more than the petrification of liberal democracy (dressed present in the robe of a fighting democracy) he would have chosen to be a candidate, at least to any extent, imitation of Adrian Zandberg, or a mild anti-capitalist with a leaning towards the center. However, he acted conservatively, which he can pay for.
I realize that a lot has been written about the end of the duopol in fresh years. possibly more wishful reasoning than real judgment. However, it seems that these elections can truly lead to a crucial washout of the leadership of 1 or the another organization ruler. That is why these elections can be recorded in past as a historical breakthrough.
Tomasz Figura
Rafał Trzaskowski – the leader of the revolutionary climate progress
