On Sunday, the Austrian Free organization (FPÖ) tripled its score in the elections to the Vienna City Parliament, moving from last place to second. As a result, FPÖ has traditionally overtaken its dominant centreright (ÖVP) on stage, which has undergone a spectacular fall.
In the local election in the capital of FPÖ, she won 20.8% of the vote, while in 2020 she could number on only 7.1%. The jump by nearly 14 percent points is unprecedented in the past of the Austrian capital, for tens of years considered as a bastion of the left and centreleft. The FPÖ leader in Vienna, Dominic Nepp, and national leader Herbert Kickl celebrated the results as evidence of the increasing discontent of Austrians with the current political and social situation.
The consequence in Vienna is part of a wider trend. The FPÖ has been a leader in national polls for 3 years, with a 34% endorsement. This organization won last year's national election, and Herbert Kickl is the most popular candidate for Chancellor with a score of 38%.
The centre-right Austrian People's organization (ÖVP) saw a catastrophic decline: from 20.4% to just 9.7%. It so fell to the last place in the Vienna Parliament. The reason for this fall should be looked for in political decisions of fresh years, including cooperation with socialist SPÖ at national level, which has alienated conventional right-wing voters.
NEOS, the liberal coalition partners of SPÖ in Vienna, improved their performance, reaching 9.8% and ahead of ÖVP. However, it is simply a tiny consolation for the full establishment camp.
A key component of the FPÖ run was the issue of migration and defence of the identity of European Vienna. The organization did not avoid controversy, pointing to problems related to expanding crime and demographic change. It was argued that the current SPÖ governments failed to cope with city security, and uncontrolled immigration began to change the face of the capital.
According to data, Muslims are now the largest spiritual group among school children in Vienna (41%), while Christians are only 34%. This is simply a dramatic change that is worrying for many people who are worried about the failure of the European character of the city.
The events in Austria follow a wider trend across Europe. In Germany, the German alternate (AfD) has late surpassed the CDU in the polls, after the Chadecs decided to cooperate with the left. In many countries, centre-right voters express frustration over the abandonment of conservative values and indecisive migration policies.
The “great coalitions” of the left and right seem to have no future. Society expects clear choices: either strong defence of national and cultural identity, or openness and liberalism, without blurring borders.
Although FPÖ will not regulation in Vienna due to the fact that SPÖ and NEOS inactive have the majority, it is clear that the arrangement of forces in Austria is changing. If trends persist, FPÖ can be expected to gain even more support in the upcoming national elections, and Herbert Kickl will have a real chance to become Chancellor.
Many analysts believe that the key to success will be to keep organization discipline and avoid scandals that have repeatedly weakened freedomists in Austria in the past.
The consequence of the Vienna elections is not only a spectacular success of FPÖ, but besides a signal for Europe as a whole. Society is increasingly demanding a change of course, especially on migration and cultural issues. The centre-right parties must decide: either return to their roots or divide the destiny of the ÖVP, becoming marginal groups without the assurance of the voters.
FPÖ has shown that determination, clear message and consistency can bring success even in the most hostile bastions of the left. The question is, will this momentum be maintained and translated into permanent changes in the political scenery of Austria?
