Jakub Majmurek: A week has passed since Poland introduced random checks at the border with Germany. Were they even noticed in Germany? How are they perceived there?
Mateusz Wilinski: Both the announcement by the Polish government of the decision to introduce controls on our side of the border and the implementation of this decision on the erstwhile Monday were commented on by German politicians and reported by German media. The second ensured that their material included the voices of border residents, the most affected by the changes.
And what are the comments?
The decision of the Polish government meets with knowing in Germany. Many commentators considered it an apparent consequence to the German side. The force from the Polish right hand, under which the government of Donald Tusk is located, was besides pointed to. RBB, a public, regional broadcaster for Brandenburg and Berlin, has expressed opinions that controls are not peculiarly burdensome so far, that only selected cars are subject to them. another media presented the situation similarly, quoting Minister Siemoniak, who praised the efficiency of the control and assured that traffic was not formed at the border.
On the another hand, there were besides voices saying that the checks at the entrance to Germany, combined with those which had previously introduced Germany, would make it even more hard for people surviving in the border strip, which, for example, live on 1 side of the border and survey or work on the other. Checks on departure from Germany make transport activities difficult, where adequate transportation time is frequently a key issue.
Are there voices that the German government should communicate with Tuski and solve the situation?
The criticisms of the border situation are any SPD politicians, forming a government with 2 parties of chadetia. Social Democrats, specified as Adis Ahmetović, claim that the border policy of Chancellor Friedrich Merz and national Minister of the Interior Alexander Dobrindt did not number on the neighbours, and communication on the Berlin-Warsaw line was not sufficient. In Germany, the Tusk government's decision was frequently intepted as a signal that the Polish authorities and society lost patience with the way Merza's office proposed bilateral relations.
Are we actually to resent Merz's government? Has he importantly changed his policy towards the border? The Germans send us more migrants than a year ago or in 2023?
In 2024, more than 9,000 people were returned at the border, between January 2024 and April. over 11,000 people. On press conference On 2 July this year, a typical of the German Ministry of abroad Affairs announced that as of 8 May, around 1,300 people were returned to Poland at the border, 130 of whom wanted asylum.
I'm certain the Merza government has tightened up border control. national police turn on the border almost all persons who do not have the right to reside in the territory of the national Republic of Germany. However, let us remember that the permanent controls themselves have introduced the erstwhile government, and specifically the social-democratic Home Minister Nancy Faeser. The qualitative ones seem to be a bigger problem than quantitative changes. Germany began to mention people declaring to Poland that they wanted to apply for global protection, without applying the Dublin procedure.
What is it?
Within this framework, the asylum seeker should make an appropriate request in the first safe country he reaches. The position of the safe country shall be that of all countries of the Union, Switzerland and Norway. Thus, a exile arriving in the Union via a way from Belarus or Ukraine should apply for protection in the first EU country whose borders exceed. In practice, this usually means Poland, Lithuania or Latvia.
The problem is that Germany turns people back to Poland, not checking how they got into the territory of Germany. Germany itself has doubts as to whether it is lawful. The administrative court in Berlin in June passed a judgement on 3 people detained at Frankfurt Oder Station, which, without checking how they got into the EU, was sent back to Poland – the court stated that the authorities should not do so. In Germany, there is simply a discussion whether this judgement concerns only the 3 mentioned, or whether it should be considered to be an interpretation.
What is the situation at another borders?
Merz competed in the election with the promise of tight checks at all German land borders and kept his promise. The neighbors respond to these actions differently, depending on the boundary the level of tension and emotion is different. Dobrindt points to support German actions by his French counterpart.
W Germany has no vote that Germany hazard breaking the Schengen sphere?
Last summer, 23 Green MPs – let us remind that their organization co-founded the Scholz government at the time – sent an open letter to Ursula von der Leyen, criticizing checks at German borders as undermining Schengen arrangements. There is an intensive discussion in Germany and throughout Europe on the future of Schengen, the migration pact, the common asylum policy. It voices that individual EU countries have little and little assurance in Community solutions, that they are increasingly seeking their own solutions. National governments are increasingly little and little trusting in the EU institutions and European partners. However, Minister Dobrindt declares that the migration problem requires European solutions that complement German action at national level, essential for the overload of state and municipal institutions. interior safety is important.
She's the most emotional. But what does it look like from a statistical point of view?
Crime statistic in 2024 indicate that more than 900,000 foreigners in Germany were suspected of having committed a crime. In this statistics, in addition to the clearly dominant Syrians (more than 114,000 cases) there are citizens of the EU countries, including Poles (over 47 thousand). Over 383 1000 are persons with status Zuwanderer, i.e. they have applied for global protection, have been covered or reside in Germany illegally.
There is no uncertainty that the crimes committed by migrants pay peculiar attention to the public, especially erstwhile they are actions that origin widespread outrage, specified as terrorist attacks motivated by religion or crimes against sexual freedom or attacks by mentally disturbed people. For example, an attack with a car at the Christmas Fair in Magdeburg in December 2024, then in January 2025 a knifefighter attack on a group of children in Aschaffenburg. In fresh weeks, a loud case of harassment by a group of Syrian teens at an open pool in Hessen, or an attack by a young Syrian travelling by train in Bavaria – 4 passengers were injured. In addition, cultural and spiritual differences are common. An example is the rejection of a homosexual teacher by Muslim students of 1 of Berlin's schools. These are serious problems, and the utmost right uses specified cases to strengthen anti-immigrant rhetoric.
Merza's actions on migration are to cut AfD's oxygen first?
AfD is the second political force in Germany and it is apparent that all government will gotta deal with it. However, it is not just about AfD and limiting its influence. The request to change migration policy has been discussed in Germany for a long time. As early as 2023, the erstwhile government indicated the request for changes, e.g. in terms of improving deportation.
Apart from expanding border control, did the Merza government make any circumstantial changes?
In June, Bundestag voted on the suspension of the right to household reunification for 2 years in the case of persons who are subject to subsidiary protection, i.e. those who do not have the right to asylum and do not have exile status, but who could be in danger if they returned to the country. This change concerns a tiny number of people, Germany agreed to bring in a maximum of 12 000 people per year, so within 2 years it will be 24,000 people, but this change sets a fresh direction for reasoning about migration.
Parliamentary work on the fresh Citizenship Act is besides ongoing. It was now adopted in January 2024. It was then criticized by the CDU, CSU and AfD, mainly due to ‘turbonaturalisation’, an accelerated way to citizenship. The fresh law is intended to strengthen the provisions in this area.
I realize that the 2024 bill was prepared by a coalition dominated by the SPD. Now the SPD in a coalition with the Chadetic organization is dismantling its bill a year and a half ago?
You could say that. In the course of the debate on the revision of the rules on household reunification, too, it was evident that this was not a change that the SPD would like. The SPD explained that it had to take that decision under coalition commitments. In the end, only 2 SPD Members voted against – the bill was supported by all current Members of the Chadets and AfD parties. The amendment was adopted – but it is clear that there is not a complete consensus between the coalition partners on migration.
At the same time, the government is inactive under attack by AfD. Bernd Baumann, secretary-coordinator of the AfD club in the Bundestag, accused Merz of ill-willing and failing to meet his promises in any debate on migration. Members of the AfD repeat: Merz promised to change the migration policy by 180 degrees, and he only realised a tiny percent of that promise. Given that we are talking about 2 laws and ad hoc actions at the border so far, we cannot truly talk about an immediate and comprehensive return in migration policy. Her change will take time. It consists of a number of complex processes: border control, admission and deployment procedures in Germany, handling applications for protection, payment of benefits to any foreigners, deportations, integration, access to the labour market. Finally, in any cases, the road to citizenship.
By raising any of the AfD's demands, isn't the charity strengthening this party?
At the beginning of the year AfD had up to 26 percent support in the polls. Today, the poll average is just over 23 percent. It is inactive the second force, supported by almost 1 in 4 German polls – it seems that it is now possible to say that the increase in support for this organization has been hampered.
At the same time, the polls show that in the east Länder, alternate will win elections and it may be increasingly hard to make national governments without its support. I think that Merza's policy besides has an crucial regional dimension: the government wants to show the east part of the country that it is able to kind out the migration situation.
Does the Merza government actually have the will to completely change the paradigm of migration policy and importantly reduce migration? Angela Merkel opened borders in 2015 not only for humanitarian reasons, but besides under the force of the German business that needed workers. Limiting migration will not be another origin of problems for the German economy after the energy shock caused by the Ukrainian war and the sanctions imposed on Russia and after Trump's trade policy?
I think the aim of the German government is to decision from the model of mass migration known as Oder to the model of limited controlled migration. So profiled as to actually fill gaps in the labour market. The current word of office of the Bundestag will be devoted, inter alia, to reducing the arrival of migrants arriving in Germany, regardless of their skills or their education, and creating a strategy of incentives for those who are in real request of the economy.
What about the controls on our border? They're going to stay on the German side for a long time?
I guess so. And given that Minister Siemoniak says that Poland will quit control erstwhile Germany does, we besides gotta number on them. For the German government, the image cost of rapidly withdrawing from control would be significant.
I think that it is most likely that Polish and German parties will now discreetly discuss the gradual simplification of the nuisance of control at our border and simultaneously increase safety at the east borders of the Union – especially Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Not only with the services of these countries, but besides with EU institutions specified as Frontex.
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Mateusz Wilinski – Dr n. hum., German expert, chief analyst at the Western Institute in Poznań. In its investigation and analytical work, it primarily deals with the interior safety of Germany and the presence of migration issues in the public debate.
