The explanation of the defeat of Rafał Trzaskowski after time is an highly easy task. All who triumphed an hr after Sunday 21 present abruptly outrun themselves in explaining what was incorrect with the run that they had previously considered to be a model. Who knows if they shared their thoughts a small earlier, possibly the consequence would be different.
But it is even easier to mock those who were one more time incapable to foretell the impending disaster. Predicting the future is mostly difficult, and as yet you are rooting for it and alternatively of an analyst you are turning into a propagandist (a case of a immense number of Polish publicists), it is hard to avoid all these cognitive errors that make you feel your own mind. Who can I trust if not him?
So while it's easy to mock losers, it's harder to find at least a small hope. Still, she's worth looking for. What would life be, and so politics, without hope? To do so, however, you gotta halt believing in your own propaganda. So halt fooling yourself.
First of all, Nawrocki's win does not formally change the day before. Like yesterday we have a prime minister from 1 camp and a president from another. Nothing virtually changed. The deal is the same. I realize all this scare at the time of the campaign, but just after Nawrocki took over, there will truly be no pogroms, no denying to the people their basic rights, kibitki or even, attention, fascism. It will be just like yesterday, or “your” president and “our” prime minister. And this is the Prime Minister who rules the country.
For 18 months Tusk someway managed to guarantee Poland's safety despite Dudy in the palace, so he will besides give despite Nawrocki. The President-elect himself, contrary to electoral propaganda, is neither a pimp, a sutener, a kibol or a Nazi. He has a certain, alternatively shameful past, but has been the head of the IPN for a fewer good years and despite being x-rayed on all sides as the same boss (except for the typical abuse of privilege) he didn't get to know himself as moving around IPN half-naked with machete.
Nawrocks don't gotta do everything and always veto. It's his first term, and that means he's reasoning about the second one, so he's going to care about popularity. Moreover, vetoing everything, including liberal ideas, will rapidly disengage Confederates. Yes, he will veto left-wing moral ideas, but let's not fool ourselves, these – again against run propaganda – inactive have no chance of coming out of this parliament.
Nawrocki does not change anything about partnerships or abortion liberalisation, due to the fact that Marek Sawicki and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish will not let specified laws. I have the impression that the government, radically exaggerating the threat, shot itself in the ft due to the fact that liberal voters act like individual died. Ba, possibly even worse than in 2015, after a double loss, although inactive their prime minister has most of the power in his hands.
Once we realize what is actual and what was run fiction, we can yet start reasoning about how the anti-PiS camp can effort to keep power.
The thought that I propose in the first place is, in particular, a radical, even revolutionary thought in relation to the Platform. In simplicity, it is that Donald Tusk will yet effort to keep his word.
Yeah, I know it's hard, I know it's truly hard, but possibly she can do it for once? The Prime Minister of Government, alternatively of sitting on X with Gierty, can effort to lead to the passing of the promised laws in parliament. Not only left-wing laws – besides laws on the right side of your coalition. If he wants, he can even get a parity and erstwhile a bill of 1 side, erstwhile a second.
The laws will be partially vetoed, but that's kind of the point. How different would Trzaskowski look if, alternatively of his speech-grass at each gathering with voters, he took out a file of laws from a specially dusty folder that Duda vetoed? Look, he didn't give you that, he gave you that, and he gave you that, and he gave you that another thing. The burden of non-fulfilling promises must be passed on to the President, but first these promises must be passed. If the government can't do that, let the government resign. Why should we all bother with him?
The president can even be drawn into the process of passing laws. alternatively of dehumanizing him – take his legislative amendments seriously for once. Duda always dreamed of it, but the anti-PiS camp was so blinded in hatred that he did not realize how much erstwhile Freedom Union politician dreams of recognizing him as a partner through the salon, as for many years Jarosław Kaczyński had dreamed of it not rather radicalized yet.
Once you've passed these respective laws, you're worth looking for your own. Professor Waldemar Paruch. This one, who has been dead for respective years, a prominent expert in the times of sanitation for years on a comparatively large basis of voters, has studied the behaviour of the written electorate. What hurts them, what they respond to, what emotions are crucial to them and whether they will stay at the power camp. Throughout the years, the PiS was (and inactive is) respective lengths before the anti-PiS camp, which in its presumptuousness could not admit the superiority of the opponent. Who else remembers PiS shruging his arms at the teachers' strike due to the fact that he already knew that their voters did not decision at all?
However, the current power did not only have the disastrous election staff of Trzaskovsky, but it could overlook the disappointment of its own voters, as an express of disappointment. So it's time to survey your own electorate. It's time to effort to realize him. It is time to make a map, first on the level of the counties, then the municipalities, why the support has broken down and what the group may consider the success of this power.
And erstwhile there is simply a file of more or little vetoed, but inactive passed laws; erstwhile the electorate is examined by individual another than the same talking, professorly heads who can't draw anything out of themselves but classical contempt, the time will come for step three, possibly the most crucial – going to Poland and apologizing. For the failure of men; for the failure of promises.
I have long believed that the motion of a loud, honest apology has an undervalued power in it, and it fits well into anti-elitarian times. An apology is always a request for forgiveness, a motion by which the region Poland is yet treated as an entity, not a reserve of resources to service the large city. erstwhile people can talk to the prime minister and the ministers, they will feel that individual is yet taking them seriously.
It's obvious. Adopting laws, examining electorate and apologizing as a fresh opening. It's all so easy, so obvious, but someway not erstwhile before. So possibly it's time for something else to go beyond the logic of duopol.
