Eurobarometer: Poles “for” fresh countries in the EU, but 1 country little popular

The support for enlargement of the European Union to another countries is increasing among Poles. This is at least the consequence of the latest Eurobarometer survey conducted on behalf of the European Commission. The survey shows that as much as 70% of respondents in Poland enthusiastically mention to the thought of accepting fresh members into the Community.

This is simply a much higher consequence than the EU-wide average, which is now 56%. At the same time, less people in Poland argue this direction – only 23 percent, while in the EU as a full there are 38 percent opponents of enlargement. Against the background of the continent, Poles are so clearly more open to enlargement of the EU. However, the knot appears at 1 very circumstantial point: it is about Ukraine.

Although Poland since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022 has been 1 of the main allies of Ukraine, both in terms of military and humanitarian aid, support for its membership of the European Union is not as advanced among Poles as could be expected. Only 51% of respondents declared that they would support Ukraine's entry into the Community. This is somewhat lower than the EU average, which is 52%.

Importantly, Poland, despite specified a large general support for EU enlargement, falls below the European average for Ukraine. This is simply a crucial contrast, given the size and commitment of the Polish public to host millions of Ukrainian refugees, to conduct collections, to organize transports and to aid at the level of local governments and state institutions. However, a tough solidarity policy does not necessarily translate into a willingness to welcome Ukraine into the structures of the Union.

By comparison, Ukraine's highest support for EU membership has been recorded in the Nordic and Baltic countries. As many as 91% of Swedes declared that they wanted Ukraine in the Union. In Denmark and Finland, this support is 81%, in Lithuania 72%, in Latvia 64% and in Estonia 61%. These countries, located close to Russia and feeling the threat of an aggressive Kremlin policy, show the highest level of solidarity with Ukraine — besides political.

On the another hand, there are countries where the public clearly opposes Ukraine's accession to the Union. The most opponents are in Hungary and the Czech Republic, as many as 64% of respondents in these countries said no to Ukrainian membership. It is worth noting that Hungary has been conducting a policy of balance between the West and Russia for years, and Czech scepticism is part of the general trend of reluctance to grow the Union.

It may besides be amazing that Poles would be more willing to see another candidate countries in the European Union than Ukraine. For example: Moldova, a country much smaller and little crucial geopolitically than Ukraine, gained 52% support among Poles in the poll – that is, more than Ukraine. For comparison, the EU average was 48%. A akin trend is seen in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, after 50% of Polish respondents declared that they would see these countries in the Union. All these results are higher than the EU average.

Interestingly, despite the strong emotions associated with the discussions on enlargement of the European Union, only 7% of respondents in Poland did not have an opinion on this issue. This is very close to the European average, which is 6%. This means that the vast majority of Poles have an opinion on the future of the Union, whether affirmative or negative.

It is besides worth looking at data from countries where opposition to enlargement is highest. The Eurobarometer shows that as many as 53% of citizens in the Czech Republic do not want to welcome fresh countries into the EU. In Austria, this percent is 50%, in France 48%, in Germany 47% and in Italy and Belgium 43%. This means that the countries of the alleged "old Union", especially from Western Europe, are increasingly experiencing fatigue in further expanding EU structures. Their inhabitants see enlargement as a threat to the political and economical stableness of the Community, especially in times of energy, migration and war crises.

The average attitude of Poles to Ukrainian membership is all the more interesting. This may seem to be due to many factors. Firstly, concerns about competition in the labour market. Millions of Ukrainians already function in the Polish economy and society. Secondly, fatigue of war and its continuing presence in public debate. Thirdly, the deficiency of assurance in the pace of reforms and the fight against corruption in Ukraine, which, in the opinion of many Poles, is not adequate for this country to be ready for full membership. This shows sobering realism towards the integration process. Support for enlargement of the Union as a general thought remains very high, but circumstantial cases — especially as complex as Ukraine — rise more questions than simple answers.

In the face of changing geopolitics, wars in Ukraine, migration crises and tensions within the Union, the question of enlargement is becoming increasingly pressing. The Eurobarometer shows that Europe on this issue is divided — and Poland, despite its hospitality and pro-European attitude, is not a monolith either. EU enlargement may take place, but not without debate, uncertainty and calculation, besides among those who at first glance seem to be its top supporters.