Coffee Analyst Warns Brazil Frost Could Deliver "Death Blow" To 2026 Harvest

Maja Wallengren, Danish-born independent coffee market reporter and founder of SpillingTheBean, reports that severe frost has struck key coffee-producing areas in Brazil, including the entire Cerrado Mineiro region and parts of Southern Minas.

Wallengren warned that this „frost damage” event could be the „death blow” to the 2026 harvest, with production estimates now around 54 to 58 million bags versus prior estimates near 70% of capacity.

Given Brazil’s position as the world’s largest coffee producer, adverse weather conditions represent a potentially bullish catalyst for coffee futures in New York and warrant close market monitoring.

Brazil @coffee lands across Minas Gerais including all top regions from Southern Minas to Alta Mogiana and the Cerrado already have been hammered by three intense cold fronts this year, and as I have tried to explain here MANY times even if the physical damage has not been… https://t.co/qkO4K4tu0e pic.twitter.com/sKZe8z9m81

— Maja Wallengren (@SpillingTheBean) August 9, 2025

Some talk again about #frost to Brazil #Coffee . However, in my 40 years of experience in this business, only twice in 100 years has there been a frost this late in August that caused crop damage & Coffee grown further north. High pressure (1024 MB) needs to be closer to Minas… pic.twitter.com/93M3642GuI

— WeatherWealth Commodity Newsletter (@ClimatePredict) August 10, 2025

Here’s the report from Wallengren, which was first published on X:

BREAKING #KC BRAZIL FROST DAMAGE continues to be confirmed across ALL of Cerrado Mineiro #coffee region, and also across MANY municipalities in Southern Minas and parts of SP/AM, and REPEATING as @SpillingTheBean has said MANY TIMES over the last month, even if the physical and visible damage to coffee trees, farms and regions may appear to be less right now than the July-2021 frosts four years ago, the STRESS IMPACT on trees and farms ahead of the 2026 flowering is MASSIVELY more severe now than four years ago, as most Brazilian coffee growers have NOT YET RECOVERED from the last 5 years of non-stop weather disasters, and the ENTIRE BRAZIL arabica coffee park is SEVERELY weakened and fragile compared to 4 years ago, hence the 2026 harvest was already SEVERELY compromised to a max crop potential of 70% BEFORE the latest and ongoing COLD FRONT and FROST started to move across the main MG coffee belt and this current frost development is THE DEATH BLOW to the 2026 harvest which in VERY BEST case scenario at this point will be able to produce a MAX of 54M-58M bags !!

*BREAKING #KC BRAZIL FROST DAMAGE continues to be confirmed across ALL of Cerrado Mineiro #coffee region, and also across MANY municipalities in Southern Minas and parts of SP/AM, and REPEATING as @SpillingTheBean has said MANY TIMES over the last month, even if the physical and… https://t.co/qsdgPNBqgi pic.twitter.com/bAwtmtawH6

— Maja Wallengren (@SpillingTheBean) August 12, 2025

The Cerrado Mineiro region is a major coffee-growing area in Brazil, but its contribution to global coffee output is relatively small.

Here’s how it breaks down:

• The Cerrado Mineiro region produces about 5 million bags of coffee annually.

• Brazil, as a country, supplies around 35 to 40% of the world’s coffee.

• Brazil’s total output is around 64 million bags (based on around 37% share of about 60 million bags of global production).

• So, Cerrado Mineiro probably accounts for about 7 to 8% of Brazil’s coffee, which corresponds to roughly 2 to 3% of global coffee production.

Commenters on Wallengren’s post expressed surprise that coffee futures showed little reaction to the news. September arabica coffee in New York traded flat.

Will it take a few days for coffee desks to digest the problem?