Housing prices in Poland are rising at a rate that has never been recorded before. The first 4th of 2024 brought evidence increases, and future forecasts indicate further increases. In any cities, prices per square metre increased by up to 35% per year! Although applications under the Safe Credit 2% programme were discontinued at the beginning of the year, the number of loans granted was inactive advanced – 186% higher than in the first 4th of 2023. This is the effect of a deferred program that expired in December 2023.
Impact of Safe Credit 2% on the housing market
The Safe Credit 2% program aimed to support those who wanted to buy an apartment, but its effects proved to be more beneficial to developers. In the group of the 17 largest cities in Poland, housing prices in the secondary marketplace increased by 21% and in the primary marketplace by 16% compared to the erstwhile year. By comparison, the nominal wage increase during this period was 12.5%.
Warsaw and Kraków in the lead of price increases
W Warsaw's average offer price of the flat on the secondary marketplace exceeded PLN 18.2 1000 per square metre, and in the primary marketplace reached PLN 17 thousand. Kraków besides records, with prices of PLN 16.3 1000 on the primary marketplace and PLN 16.7 1000 on the secondary market. Only in respective cities specified as Lodz, Bydgoszcz, Rzeszów and Zielona Góra, prices on the primary marketplace were lower than PLN 10 1000 per square metre.
Kraków – the leader of rising housing prices
Kraków recorded the biggest increase in housing prices in the first 4th of 2024. The average price per square metre increased by over 30% compared to the end of 2023. In another large cities specified as Wrocław, Poznań or Gdańsk, prices besides increased, although at a somewhat lower rate, exceeding 15% in both markets. In the secondary market, price increases exceeded 10% in all cities analysed.
Increase in the supply of fresh housing
The supply of fresh housing offers besides maintains a strong growth trend. Compared to the last 4th of 2023, the number of fresh offers increased by 20%. In the average week of the first 4th of 2024, in the largest cities, the average number of fresh offers reached 9,000. This is the highest level since mid-2022. The main reason is the increased activity of developers – the number of fresh offers on the primary marketplace increased on average by 53%. However, most of these investments are in the first phase of construction.
Forecasts for the future – prices will proceed to rise
Experts of the Polish economical Institute foretell further increase in housing prices in the following months. This will be affected by the continuation of wage growth and the unchangeable economical situation, despite somewhat higher inflation, which is likely to exceed 4% in the second half of the year.
Limited number of fresh construction projects
Despite the evidence number of fresh projects introduced by developers, most of them are in the first phase of implementation. This limits the number of projects available for sale in subsequent quarters. The number of fresh offers of home sales outside the agglomerations is besides increasing. In districts outside the 7 largest cities, the number of fresh offers increased by 35%.
Stability of rental prices
Housing rental prices in the 17 largest cities averaged 4% annually. The biggest increase was recorded in Warsaw, where the average rental price is PLN 4.3 1000 per month. In Krakow, Wrocław and Gdańsk prices scope from PLN 2.9 1000 to PLN 3 thousand. In smaller cities specified as Łódź, Białystok, Bydgoszcz, Olsztyn and Kielce, rental prices do not exceed PLN 2 1000 per month.
The prices of housing in Poland are rising at an different rate, and there is no indication that this trend will stop. Credit support schemes, though intended to aid buyers, mainly contributed to price increases. Forecasts for the future are clear – housing will be even more expensive. If you plan to buy a property, it is worth to act rapidly and think carefully about your decision.
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House prices are crazy. From 1 July it will be more expensive
