In the latest presidential poll conducted by the IBRiS for Onetu, a clear leader emerges, but besides a fewer surprises that can overturn the erstwhile calculation of election staffs.
Rafał Trzaskowski remains a favorite, with a consequence of 32.6% of support. Right behind him, Karol Nawrocki – a candidate of the United Right camp – supported by 26.4%. The 3rd place is taken by Sławomir Mentzen (10.8%), and the 4th - Magdalena Biejat (6.0%), who overtakes Simon Holovnia (5.3%).
The survey was conducted on 12-13 May on a typical example of 1,072 adult Poles. The CATI method, although limited to telephone interviews, allows to capture social sentiments with advanced precision. The results propose a run full of tensions and surprises ahead.
Trzaskowski holds the advantage, but there is no comfort
Rafał Trzaskowski, the current president of Warsaw and candidate of the ruling coalition, maintains the position of leader. 32.6% is simply a solid score, but besides low to guarantee triumph in the first round. Its ability to keep dominance in large cities and attract young electorate, which can be unstable and prone to change preferences, will be crucial.
Karol Nawrocki – a quiet player with large potential
Nawrocki, current president of the Institute of National Memory and candidate supported by the United Right, gains in polls. 26.4% give him a real chance at a second round. However, he inactive does not convince the centre electorate, which may be the key to triumph in the final. If it does not open up to average voters, its chances may evaporate in clash with Trzaskowski.
Sławomir Mentzen – a problematic 10% limit
Sławomir Mentzen, leader of fresh Hope and 1 of the Confederate faces, ranks 3rd with a score of 10.8%. This is simply a decline in comparison to erstwhile expectations and evidence of the limited ability of his run to go beyond the bubble of a young male electorate.
Mentzen built his popularity on economical liberalism and criticism of the "old political class". This language has brought him success on social media, but does not translate into broad public support. Women, aged people and residents of smaller towns seldom indicate him as a serious presidential candidate.
Mentzen's problem is not deficiency of recognition, but deficiency of credibility as a possible head of state. His image as an “anti-system” policy works well in the Sejm and the Internet, but he loses his attractiveness in presidential elections, where stability, diplomacy and experience matter. If Mentzen is incapable to redefine his message – or at least ease its focus – it may turn out that 10% is the ceiling of his capabilities.
Magdalena Biejat – the unexpected strength of the Left
The biggest surprise of this poll is Magdalena Biejat, who with the consequence of 6% precedes Simon Holovnia and becomes the leader on the left side of the political scene. It's a promotion that can completely change the power strategy among candidates outside the mainstream.
Biejat, co-chairman of the organization Together and MP of the Left, consistently builds the image of a progressive and socially active politician. Her presence in the legislature and activity in matters of women, climate and housing attracts young left-wing voters who do not identify with either the PO or the Law and Justice.
What distinguishes Biejat is the credibility of the idea. It does not change views depending on the polls, does not avoid hard subjects (abortion, LGBT+, housing crisis), while avoiding a extremist speech that scares the moderate. Her run is gaining importance – especially among voters disappointed in Holovnia.
Does Biejat have a chance to enter the second round? It's unlikely, but her consequence may be tongue in weight. 6–8% left-wing electorate can decide who will face Trzaskowski in the final – Nawrocki or even another candidate if the run dynamics changes.
Simon Holovnia – a decline that hurts
Szymon Hołownia with a score of 5.3% is 5th – this is simply a dramatic decline in its position from 2020. failure of freshness, entry into the political mainstream (marshall of the Sejm), compromises and interior conflicts with the PSL – all this makes the Holownia lose support among voters seeking “newness”. He stopped being a symbol of change, and became another player whose voters had time to meet... and be disappointed.
What's next? 3 scenarios
- Trzaskowski vs. Nawrocki – the most likely script of the second round. A clash of the classical division of PO vs PiS, though with fresh faces.
- Mentzen's promotion to the second round – possible only with the spectacular expansion of Nawrocki and the mobilisation of right-wing electorate. Not real, but not impossible.
- Left set from Biejat – it is not about entering the second round, but about building a permanent left-wing block before the next parliamentary elections. Biejat can become the face of a modern left and change the future of its formation.
The IBRiS poll gives the first real look at the power arrangement before the 2025 presidential election. Trzaskowski leads, Nawrocki chases, and Mentzen and Biejat fight for an outsider title that may surprise. The consequence of Biejat is simply a breath of freshness for the Left, while Mentzen is faced with a choice: either he will adapt to the reality of the presidential campaign, or he will stay a hero of memes alternatively than a real player.
One thing is certain – the next months will bring more than 1 surprise.
