Political analysts active in electoral forecasts combine the characteristics of gamblers, fairies sniffing around glass balls and sellers wonderful inventions. 1 specified analyst is Marcin Palade, who erstwhile managed to hit a six in a political totlot, then hit little or full boxes. It is not malicious criticism or another oppression, simply specified destiny of people operating in the professional-statistical industry.
Marcin Palade has been based on his own methodology for years, but it is at least dubious due to the fact that it is based on the arithmetic average of all available polls. Where is the biggest mistake of this technique? Of course, at the source, that is, the quality of the polls themselves, to a vast majority, which deviates from the final results of the elections, to a degree. Nevertheless, Marcin Palade does not respond and regularly publishes his latest forecasts, the second being as follows:
Forecast I tours of 29 December 2024 (thousand votes):@Smack_ 37.3% (7,460)@NawrockiKn 29.4% (5880)@K_Stanowski 10.5% (2 100)@SlawomirMentzen 8.4% (1,680)Organisation 5.4% (1,080)
Bartoszewicz 3.3% (660)@ZandbergRAZEM 2.6% (520)@MagdaByjat 2.3% (460)...
— Marcin Palade (@MarcinPalade) December 29, 2024
This summary was presented to the public, at least 2 weeks before the start of the authoritative presidential campaign, and more than that, there are names that did not confirm their start at all in the election. In specified circumstances, Palade's predictions cannot be treated differently than as a form of political fun. Apart from the fact that the list includes unconfirmed candidates: Krzysztof Stanowski, Adrian Zandberg and mysterious nameless Bartoszewicz, it lacks at least 1 politician name and is Grzegorz Braun. All of this together makes us deal with blowing in a glass ball, which has been told rather painfully by the author of the portal “X”.
Similar points on the water have always caused many corrections and mocking comments, but in this peculiar case, the percentages of Krzysztof Stanowski are possibly the most real. It is undoubtedly a individual recognized on the Internet, but if you follow this criterion, then there are surely more than 10 more recognizable influencers than Stanowski, due to the fact that there is no Stanowski ranking in the top ten. The granting of 10% of support is all the more courageous, due to the fact that with large probability Krzysztof Stanowski makes alleged "eggs" out of his running, which he does not hide.
In the past, specified "eggers" gained any support there, but even the most celebrated ones: Krzysztof Kononowicz and Zbigniew Stonoga against media sound never made a political career. If Krzysztof Stanowski even takes off, It doesn't seem real.in order to gain greater support from candidates with a large political background, peculiar attention should be paid to Simon Holovnia and Sławomir Mentzen. Either way, by election day, six months remained, and the only thing that could be staked in the blind is completely different election results than those presented in Marcin Palade's forecast.
We don't believe in anyone, we don't believe in anything! We look at facts and draw conclusions!
