The pendulum turned to the right again, and the series of right-wing victories for many is overwhelming. But shortly the right-wing electorate and broad masses may besides begin to overwhelm.
This may sound like a dream of a beheaded head, but the past of the western planet has been based on moving from wall to wall for at least a fewer decades. The right is happy today, but she was on the defensive a while back. Cowboy and ma pure policy They come back all minute and then they leave.
The half-century of fluctuations and the intuition of PiS
After the 1968 sexual revolution, there was general expansion and more slackness. Unfortunately, the pendulum went besides far and the expansion ended in an detonation of crime. Stephen Pinker described this in Twilight of Violence, it perfectly illustrated many films and series. For example, talking about the beginnings of hip-hop netflix The Get Down, most likely the most underrated streaming platform series.
New York City in the 1970s was an abandoned, dirty and violent city. Even then, it had announced a right-wing reflection and fascination with cowboyry. In another words, Dirty Harry of San Francisco announced the arrival of Ronald Reagan in Washington. This continued until the early 1990s, erstwhile fashion took place on various neoliberal “left 3rd road” – Blair, Clinton or Schroeder. In fact, it's hard to tell whether the left-hand reflection of the early 1990s was much little harmful than Reagan and Thatcher's cowboyness, but that's a different subject.
The fact is that the neoliberal phrase besides led to the tilt of the lever besides far. This ended in the 2008 crisis, followed by a return to the grace of Keynesian economics. Progressive social policy abruptly became highly attractive and popular, and the book Pikette Capital in the 21st century He wanted everyone, even if he wasn't going to read it.
This was possibly the most "left" of the pendulum phrases made during the life of millennials. In Poland, the Law and Justice became its beneficiary, which during the 2015-2019 word did quite a few good things (bad of course also): 500+, minimum hourly rate, VAT sealing, restrictions on trade on Sunday, etc.
The Law and Justice had already been betting on the return of cowboyry and placed, among another things, Ziobra at the Ministry of Justice. Now he derives profits from the good bet of ideological and social changes. But before 2015, it was a weak and rough environment. Their media, specified as the roaring tv Republic, were serenity and neuter. The members of the Law and Justice Service constantly felt sorry for their hard fate.
Poland is the most liberal in past
Now the left is in the defensive and the social climate is not conducive to it. Only that election results can make a mistaken impression that Poles have turned right in fresh years. They did this on any of the issues that utmost parties, alt-right parties, braunists or mentalists are actually raising. It is about relations with Ukrainians, migration and security. This has its reasons (not justification) – a wide influx of refugees and immigrants, the artificial migration crisis created by Lukashenko, the border war and the activities of fresh criminal groups.
You can't see it on the another right-hand side. In general, Poles and Poles are the most liberal in moral terms in history. You can look at political views Women. The right-wing attitudes actually spread between 2013 and 2023, from 28 to 36 percent. However, this was due to a decline in attitude from the sign of "difficult to say" (from 25 to 15 percent). At the same time, the declared leftist attitudes rose from 15 to 21 percent. The left hands together with the centres are definitely superior to the right hands – 48 to 36 percent.
Declared political views can be viewed suspiciously. Many people who think of themselves as left-wingers are actually liberals. However, they are surely not right-wing, especially from Braun or the Confederacy.
Men's and women's relationships are besides changing. By data CBOS, between 2004 and 2018 the percent of men washing dishes at home increased from 8 to 13 percent. Of course, it's patheticly little, but it inactive means an increase of more than half. Joint preparation of meals increased from 18 to 30 percent. In 2004, 33% of respondents would like their partner to resign if the financial situation allowed it. In 2018 it was only 24 percent.
Changes are besides seen in civic attitudes and attitudes towards common good. Between 2012 and 2023, the percent of respondents certain that others pay taxes reasonably increased by 16 percent points and the view that others respect public property – by 17 points. By 13 percent points, the belief that others can get along and do something together increased.
Symbolic turn
Even the right-wing organization electorate isn't as right-wing as it seems. In 2021 CBOS test the approach of individual electorates to various socio-political issues. As many as 60% of Confederate voters stated that the state should supply citizens with a advanced level of social benefits. Only 21% of them replied that crime should be fought hard, even at the price of limiting civilian rights. As much as 71 percent were against it.
Among the Confederates, 41% declared support for abortion without restrictions. The other was 31 percent. More than half of Confederate voters in 2021 considered the concordat unnecessary, in the belief that no denominations should stand out.
The current right turn is so mostly symbolic. Guys want to get high, and any women like to romanticize the conventional household model again. In their detailed views they liberalize each year.
There's no reason the left can't take them back. It's a question of good organization, thoughtful communicative and leadership selection. And, of course, consent, due to the fact that even the right hand of the author lost erstwhile she was in a fight. She started winning only erstwhile she formed the United Right in 2015. If the Polish left inactive cannot agree, then the benefits of moving the control to the left will be collected again by individual else. Just like the PiS took the benefit from the Keynesian return after 2008.
Overall, the left-wing election consequence in the fresh presidential election has been the best in years. She scored a two-digit result, which against the background of right-wing society does not look good, but against the background of her results from erstwhile elections as much as possible. Especially if we only consider presidential elections erstwhile candidates or candidates have simply embarrassed themselves. Now the laughter was gone. Mentzen and Braun scored 20%, twice as much as Senyszyn, Zandberg and Biejat. It's a large difference, but not a gap.
Right-wing communicative is now on the wave, but it will simply get bored, just as it has grown bored of bragging about Europeanism or liberal sympathy. How much can you perceive to Braun, who keeps telling the same coin? Millions of people were bored of talking to Korwin – with the majority age, he was undergoing Corvinism. Then they formed the Slawomir of Nitrasa, which is besides not good, but always a small better.
Zandberg's good score made the organization membership together abruptly became rather fashionable. The first day after the first circular of the organization 3 1000 arrived members and members. The number of members together doubled, and as spokesperson Mateusz Merta stated, the scale of the applications exceeded the mobilisation of 2015 erstwhile Together celebrated its first triumph, the consequence allowing for a subsidy. 6 1000 members are not only adequate for Polish conditions. Let us remind you that the Civic Platform has 25 000 members, and the PiS 48 000 Confederation has only 11.5 000 members. If we add 25,000 members of the fresh Left to the 6 thousand, then we have the 3rd largest organization in Poland – after the Law and Justice organization (73,000).
Theoretically, therefore, there is simply a field to take over political profits from the inevitable reflection of the pendulum to the left. Politically, however, the left must be ready for this – organized, well-prepared leaders and connected at least in the political field. It should besides have a well-thought-out narrative, a well-examined society and a research-based election strategy. And most of all, she should stop. To be ashamed of yourself, due to the fact that the right hand picks up young people, among another things, due to the fact that it is good for her, although her views are a origin for shame. This deficiency of assurance dispels the left most due to the fact that nobody wants to associate with politicians who do not believe in their own demands.
