Polish government tirelessly from success to success. This time, he succeeded in bringing the Council of Social dialog to a historical agreements employers and trade unions. This is an outstanding accomplishment of the government, even if both fighting groups agreed against it. In 1 of the cases of the ruling majority in the RDS, they already put on the table a proposal so impudent that even entrepreneurs and trade unionists had to put together a set-up in opposition. possibly provoking the social side is any deeper government strategy for spreading the consensus economy over the Vistula.
It is simply a question which, as all year, returns to the wallpaper of the public debate, although in Poland it should be said that there is simply a "public disturbance". The RDS is negotiating, among another things, an increase in budgetary remuneration. The word "negotiates" should be understood purely courtesyly, as so far the government has made a final decision on almost all crucial issue – specified as a minimum wage increase. Business and worker side proposals are usually so far apart that the government could freely play the function of a peacemaker, erstwhile more supporting 1 side and erstwhile again. It's different this time.
President Trzaskowski and I were expected to tighten our belts.
With respect to wage increases in the budget, the government proposed a rate of... 3 percent. The union organization proposed at least 12 percent, so they missed 4 times. However, the government's proposal was so bad that even employers' demands were almost twice as high. Entrepreneurs offered a rise of at least 5%.
The government's proposal met with anger from trade unionists. Especially uniformed services that face excessive work and vacancy. If the government's proposal had entered into force, it would not even be possible to talk about an increase, but only about an incomplete pay-value. According to July projection The NBP average inflation will be 3.9 percent this year and 3.1 percent next year. On average, budget sector workers will actually become poor.
"The employees' and employers' sides of the Social dialog Council are negatively assessing the government's proposed rate of wage growth in the state budgetary sphere for 2026 at 103 percent. We consider that the level of increases proposed is insufficient in the light of the material needs of workers, the requirements for ensuring continuity and quality of public services and the fulfilment of constitutional tasks of the state.
The labour side and employers' side stress that remuneration is simply a basic incentive instrument for work and a key stabilising origin for employment in the public sector, and that it is so essential to increase wages and to guarantee unchangeable and predictable backing of wages at a higher level than foreseen by the current government proposal" - they wrote in the joint text statement trade unionists and entrepreneurs.
In this case, there is no consensus between the 2 parties at all, but the reason for the hawk's approach to finance. The government site had to know what reaction the offer of a real wage simplification would bring. Not adequate of her election failures?
The answer to this challenge is very simple – the government must begin to align spending with revenue, as the excessive deficit procedure is hanging over Poland. Theoretically, it has been in force since this year, but at 2025 the EC graciously did not anticipate a peculiar deficit reduction, so the government could operate freely. This will change rapidly from next year.
The secret of the polysinnel is that this informal transitional period the government agreed with the EC in connection with the presidential election, due to the fact that winning them during the belt tightening period would be even harder. The EC so agreed to spread the Polish austerity process into three, not 4 years – the procedure covers the period 2025–2028. This was to aid the rulers take over the large palace, but in return for the request to tighten the belt faster since the beginning of 2026.
So the plan was devious, but to say that it didn't work is to say nothing. A man has installed himself in the presidential palace far to the right of the Law and the request to save more rapidly will get us anyway. large plan – not to eat a cookie and not have a cookie.
How Government Lays Out Emphasis in Consolidation
It looks innocent in numbers. By medium-term plan The budget-structured government for the period 2025-2028 has allowed us to evidence a deficit of 5.5% of GDP. The year before that was 5.7 percent, so the change could inactive be cosmetic. Unfortunately, already in 2026 the deficit will should be 4.5% of GDP and 3.7% a year later. yet in 2028, it should fall somewhat below the EU's 3% threshold.
We will so reduce the deficit at a rate of about 1 hundredth of GDP. The percent may seem low, but in nominal numbers it is impressive. To reduce the deficit alone, the government will gotta find an amount of about PLN 40 billion each year. Meanwhile, fresh spending needs arise all step of the way, especially in relation to security.
The government's alleged fiscal consolidation structure is besides very interesting. It shows how the government intends to meet the budget effort announced. As is known erstwhile money is missing, there are fundamentally 2 solutions – little spending or more earning. This, of course, is never zero-one, and any successful exit policy mixes both solutions. It is crucial to spread accents that show a general attitude towards ways of saving.
Unfortunately, in this case it is visible that the Polish Ministry of Finance is very keen to look at the spending side. On the income side, only PIT gross increases, which are expected to reduce the deficit by a 4th of GDP each year, will be of large importance for consolidation. In the first year of savings, the government intends to save the increase in excise income, which will consequence in, among another things, increases in alcohol and cigarettes. On the another hand, another taxes, i.e. VAT and CIT, will not actually play any function in consolidating the state budget.
The second is good and bad news at the same time. It could be suspected that a liberal government would trust on VAT, which is simply a favourite origin of income-free liberal money, especially if it is progressive. Although VAT strikes much more noticeablely in the least-earning groups, it is banally easy to usage and reliable. All you gotta do is rise 1 of the rates by just a point, and then there are billions of dollars coming to the government – consumers request any time to realize that prices have risen and habits request to be corrected.
Unfortunately, there's besides bad news. The marginal function of CIT means that the government does not intend to step on the back of companies and corporations. Since the beginning of Trump's presidency, Warsaw has actually continued in the announcements to grant generous taxation relief to investors. Thus, in the second era of Trump, large and large enterprises will be treated lightly so as not to upset the hegemon and, by the way, to sail on a pro-business wave passing through the West.
On the expense side, private individuals will take work for paying off their debts. There is no forecast for any major improvement of this taxation – and surely not progressive – so the government is most likely looking for a solid wage increase. The freezing of the taxation threshold causes an expanding proportion of taxpayers to fall into it, which besides promotes the improvement of PIT revenues. The question is whether it will besides encourage the creation of fictional companies in order to benefit from a linear tax. The second can simply be fought, but the current government has banners to support entrepreneurship. How would he explain to his electorate that he is fighting the formation of fresh companies?
Therefore, a crucial burden will remainder on the expenditure side. The most crucial category will be the simplification of public consumption, which will be liable all year for a deficit simplification of 0.2% of GDP. Public consumption is simply a category containing almost everything, most importantly, the state's action. This includes maintaining all public services, specified as education, wellness and transport, spending on administering the country and maintaining order, as well as salaries for the budget sector. In times where the most pressing request is to fund the public domain and joint services, the government intends to base its large saving plan on them.
Free marketplace populism of happy forty-year-olds
What ends with budget hunger is what we know very well, due to the fact that we have been doing this for years. The immense number of vacancies even in key services specified as Border Guards, low motivation to work among employees, low training sometimes leading to tragedy (like the fresh shooting of a police officer by another police officer in Prague), immense staff problems in medical care, increasingly mediocre teaching quality, as shown by fresh PISA results – this is only part of the consequences of this disastrous process.
Unfortunately, at the same time all year there will besides be a tendency to tighten the belt in the budget. It's the safest political solution. The tightening of the budget region reminds Poles of Taking their money distant from non-officials. The release of any imaginary – but appropriately awesome – percent of officials has for years been an thought that meets at least the sympathy of voters.
Both Janusz Korwin-Mikke and Paweł Kukiz from another right-wing trunk utilized this regularly. Especially since before 2015, 1 of the many right-wing myths about the mystery of political success of the PO and the PSL was expected to be mass budget support in exchange for various frukta. Which was absurd, of course, due to the fact that the majority of the governments of the PO-PSL coalition held wage frost in the public sector.
The current tilt to the right besides brought, as usual, free marketplace populism. The primacy on the right is no longer led by hysterical writers, only very happy 40-year-old men, financially independent and not utilizing most public services all day. And if necessary, buy them on the private market. They are not disturbed by budget workers due to the fact that they are from Tusk or Kaczyński, just due to the fact that they are. In fresh years, the revenues of Poles and Poles have increased significantly, besides thanks to social transfers. At the same time, this increase in income was not accompanied by an adequate improvement in non-financial benefits to the population.
On the contrary, public wellness care has hit 2 major crises (pandemic and last year's suspension of treatments and operations) and even successful so far education has late decreased flights. So people started looking for an alternate they found on the private market, where they sometimes gotta pay dearly, but it's at once, and higher income compensates for the request to pay. Over time, Poles and Poles have become accustomed to utilizing this convenient alternative, so the further crisis in medical care or education they no longer fear.
Silent privatization strengthens uniforms
This silent privatisation of part of public services, which reveals, among another things, the departure of students from public institutions, is presently conducive to the government in its plan to starve the budget. Another condition is the systematic simplification of the importance of the budget sector.
First, there are less and less – according to report The OECD, in 2011, the public sector employed 26 percent of all employees on the Vistula River, and in 2020 only 23 percent of the OECD average was 22%, but Poland's consequence inactive inflates local governments, which play an highly crucial function in the Polish system. The government sector itself in Poland gives employment to 17% of those employed on the Vistula River, which is already below the OECD average.
The Polish budget is increasingly little organized. Traditionally, strong mining unions lose their importance due to decarbonisation, protests of the Polish Teachership Union bring small effect and are not overly affluent, and ladies from the National Association of Nurses and Midwives are already focusing on paying off alleged holidays under the pear – possibly by downloading colleagues from retirement, so that for at least six months they can aid seal up any of the immense staff gaps. The weakening of the function of labour organisations besides favours the government in budget implementation austerites.
In the coming years, only uniformed services will possibly be a comparatively equivalent partner for the government. Due to the tensions at the borders, the possible escalation of anti-immigrant sentiments in the country and hybrid actions undertaken by Russia and Belarus, uniformed services have now become a key part of the state apparatus. Their increasing assertiveness has been observed for respective good years. The proposal for a 3 percent increase immediately remained fluctuated by NSZZ Policemen as "unacceptable and disproportionate to the expanding cost of surviving and the requirements of the budgetary sphere of staff". Thus, it can be expected that the uniform service will fight off much more.
In short, the government intends to base the accelerated simplification of the deficit imposed by the EC on the increasing income taxation revenues of citizens and the simplification of social welfare expenditure and the maintenance of the budgetary sphere. Sounds like a ready-made belt tightening recipe. As if it wasn't enough, Polish austerites will most likely be accompanied by increased expenditure on interior security.
It's hard not to associate Margaret Thatcher's politics. As a result, the 80s will yet have the chance to full consciously experience the times of fresh incarnation of extremist neoliberalism. The difference is that in the digital age, and this gives corporations a large deal of fresh opportunities to fight their top competition, the public domain.
