In spring, we will have elections: local elections, which will take place on 7 and 21 April, and European elections at the beginning of June. There is simply a temptation to proceed the triumphant march as a Coalition on October 15 – Donald Tusk expressed his intention at the conference on January 3 and on January 4 repeated the left-wing minister of equality Catherine Kotula. However, a joint start in the local elections carries the same threat as 1 list forced by the Strong Together. Blur, fade, failure of characteristics of individual coalitions.
The Blinding Light of Holown
This is peculiarly dangerous for the smaller coalition partners, and indeed especially for the left. The 3rd road, which will most likely go as such, risks little. Polish voters 2050 have seemingly already swallowed an alliance with PSL.
The popularity of Marshal Holowna continues to grow., about its phenomenon is the world's media. In this dazzling glare, for example, relationships are invisible Władysław Kosiniak-Kamisha from the hunting lobby, which the head of the PSL promised prior to the election privileges, independency and even the right to take children hunting. In this way, Poland 2050, which at first stood closer to the Greens, for which not only the presence in the European Union was important, the separation of the Church from the state and green energy, but besides the climate, ecology and animal rights, and which thanks to this progressiveness in the polls enjoyed greater support than the PSL, quietly, but already ultimately, loses the attraction of freshness and extrasystemicity.
At the same time, it can pose an expanding challenge to the conservative camp, the show camp. The 3rd Way proved inflexible in the issue of women's rights, slow on the separation of the Church from the State, against liquidation Church Fund There is simply a PSL, so he can number on words of support from the pulpit, and he is in power, and money from the KPO has just moved to Poland. It so becomes the 3rd Way a fresh centreright, a charade which can attract to it and cynical, and cyclical, and disappointed losses of the Law and Justice voters of the right.
The center of the 3rd Way pushes the Civic Coalition, more globally progressive, to the left, or where the Left stands. But you can see resistance. KO politicians, who took over many leftist postulates and slogans before the elections, learned to talk about climates, women's rights, secular states, education, after the election they wiped sweat from their foreheads and remembered that they were Catholics. Therefore, the government did not enter the organization Together, and women for their rights gotta fight again on the street, erstwhile the commentators grunted, that “this is not the happiest moment” and “you aid the PiS”.
Will the railings return under the Sejm?
It's not easy to step down from the center. Liberal-market views, which are a dogma of systemic change after 1989, proceed to dominate and until late allowed plans for exotic alliances, e.g. with the Confederation. Catholicism is simply a small more hard due to the fact that it is impossible to miss the progressive secularization and commitment to young people. At the same time, to keep a hegemony position, you gotta represent the majority's views. Hence the slogans about the Coalition on October 15, the generation of October 15, promises of national reconciliation, or building a fresh national unity.
The coalition should decide whether it represents more anti-PiS, which has so far been its main motive, or whether to agree to democratic political rules of the game, which elected voters by voting for 3 democratic parties.
It's just hard to be an anti-PiS erstwhile you've already won and promised reconciliation. But it is besides hard to be a polite politician in a country whose constitutional framework and institutions have been so dramatically deregulated that we request to look for loopholes, to scope for a controversial and legal discussion tool to get out of chaos, which is only growing. We have 2 public tv centres, 2 judicial centres, and the PiS takes over the slogans utilized by the democratic opposition so far, and even if the PiS activists "constitution, constitution!" or "we defend freedom of speech" sound false, legal nuances from expert level cannot be easy explained to laymen.
It remains to convince them of their goodwill, which will be difficult, due to the fact that the PiS strives and will strive to be short, to prove that the power of the PO is like the PiS announced that it reaches for dictatorship, that it is based on revenge and rematching that it is anti-democratic. He will provoke and it is not known whether on 11 January the Sejm should be surrounded by barriers again. It would be a large PiS win.
"Extreme Left and utmost Right"
The PO, in order to guarantee its credibility and distinctiveness, for a place “in the middle”, starts pinching the Left. In an interview with Karolina Lewicka in Tok FM, Bogdan Zdrojewski set this large example. erstwhile asked about the coalition plans in the Europarlament election, he put together in 1 conviction an "extreme left" with an "extreme right", telling them about their common extremism, pro-Russianism and fascism. Inquired by the lead-in on who the utmost left was, he was initially blinking at the answer, and yet stated that he did not want to go with Adrian Zandberg's organization to the European elections. erstwhile again, if he truly considers the organization together pro-Russian, he denied, but the impression that he was trying to fasten the patch of Fascism with all his might remained.
This 1 is split. The organization Together did not enter the Coalition or the government. Although the fresh Left has progressive ministries: digitisation and equality, it has started work Over Partnerships, but she had to swallow the frog in the form of delaying and diluting the substance of reproductive rights, including primarily abortion.
It was hard to defy the feeling of a grievance by listening to the joyful speeches of left-wing politicians and politicians erstwhile voting on the bill on in vitro. After all, the flagship law of the democratic government was to reconstruct the right to abortion. In vitro, yes, but in the package with another reproductive rights: education, available contraception, abortion and sterilisation – would be the right, confirming democratic declarations by the movement.
Nor did she overcome the barrier of the wilted neoliberal imagination of a proposal to build apartments for inexpensive rent. most likely besides shortly for that. The fact that you could living and not in debt for life, It just doesn't fit in the head.
The left, which has been consistently building the image of an unextreme, compromise-minded organization for respective years, has been trapped. After leaving the coalition Together, which thus facilitated putting it—unwarrantedly and slanderously—in the company of right-wing fascists and rusophiles, is weaker and forced to give concessions to the majority partner. At the hands of her speech with KO in the local election, but without support in the form of Together she may be blurred.
Local
In the field, however, the fresh Left has structures, not together.
So far, “wars on top” have not necessarily influenced local systems. Any configurations were possible.
Not long ago in Lublin, erstwhile PiS councillors wanted to pass the construction of the monument of Lech Kaczyński, PO councillors enabled them to do so. Now that would be highly unlikely. In colloquially speaking, the PiS overstepped, crossed the border, and no of the democratic groups are curious in contacting him anymore. Especially since Donald Tusk inactive emphasizes the request to settle. “You give them your finger, they rip off their hand”, “PO voters or Left would not now forgive any coalitions with PiS councillors,” says a local politician, asked about possible coalitions with PiS councillors in Lublin.
Similar voices come from Krakow or Silesia. Even Jakub Chełstowski, the current Marshal of the Silesian Voivodeship, who left the Law and Justice Office in November 2022, thus losing power in Silesia. It seems that the PiS is burned, and the Left can take advantage of it, and this is the plan – to enter as many offices as possible, within the Coalition on October 15, especially where the advantage is uncertain.
Politics is grinding. In Lublin, PSL would like to go in Coalition on 15 October and together with PO and Lewica support Krzysztof Żuk for another term, and the hoarders want to go the 3rd Way. It seems that local elections will be a test for the durability of the latter, where more Poland 2050 has to win, which does not have strong structures yet.
Chances left big, together smaller. Just as the 3rd Road could usage April elections to strengthen its positions in the field, but this will depend on the result of negotiations, which, for example, in Krakow, due to the premature support of Łukasz Gibala by Daria Gosek-Pope Together, they're stuck.
