If the elections were held tomorrow, Rafał Trzaskowski would have a chance to win in the first round. The last poll before Christmas gave him somewhat over 36% of support and little than 8 percent points of advantage over Karol Nawrocki. Unfortunately, the vote is not scheduled for May 18.
Until then, the candidate KO will face the refrigerator they effort to crush him Karol Nawrocki with Beata Szydło, as in the late popular meme.
The first challenge is visual. You can already see how the left-wing Liberal Trzaskowski tries to become a moderately conservative centrist and alpha male, easy challenged to duels. The samples that we had the chance to see during the already moving pre-campania make us pray (serio) that individual in the staff press the brake and put an end to the pumps in the snow and wave a clenched à la Trump fist. 1 skier we already have, from pushups and wearing refrigerators is Nawrocki – let everyone play what is best at.
Trzaskowski's visit is Warsaw, large urban communication, greenness, cleanliness. He's a good self-government guy, a good host, he's got naturality, peace and distance. That's enough.
The second threat will be to measure the actions of Donald Tusk's government – that is, what is in the fridge. Prices of energy, fuel, money in the pocket of Poles. Plus prices of butter, eggs, tomatoes or poultry which showed at the conference Beata Szydło with Mariusz Błaszczak. Granted, in a free-market country, the president has no influence on the prices of food products, but if Mariusz and Beata appear as regularly as Marian and Barbara, known for their wholesale purchases of RTV-AGD equipment, only that alternatively of buying fresh refrigerators, they will effort to pollute the old one, which they will have nothing to fill anyway – it may be poor.
The success of the government will be built by Trzaskovsky, negligence will become a burden. It is possible that Donald Tusk will so appoint a spokesperson who will be able to tell about KPO, our global position, widow's pension, Grandma, Zusowski holidays for entrepreneurs, lower VAT for the beauty industry, not charging the NFZ contribution on fixed assets and another successes of the coalition government on October 15. possibly now, on the last straight, a fewer laws promised to various groups of voters can be passed. Trzaskowski has no chance of getting distant from his camp, and polls show that over 60% of voters believe that the government does not meet the promises.
The criticisms of the government can be expected not only from the PiS candidate, but besides from the others who will effort to usage the run to remind of the demands of their parties, how higher the tax-free amount, Partnerships, access to legal abortion or order in State Forests.
You cannot cover all these matters with a password of security, even if it is repeated over and over again in Poland and Europe. 5% of GDP on defence is not adequate to satisfy the aspirations of Poles and Poles.
Karol Nawrocki's quotations are very good, given that he just appeared on the political stage. He does not even effort to pretend to be the president of all Poles. He is not only fighting Trzaskowski, but besides – and so far – mainly with the Confederate candidate. He publishes photos from the gym, dates to run in parks together. He showed up with his wife and children, and in the areas affected by the flood in the autumn he actually wore a refrigerator. If he can attract Confederate voters, the difference between him and Trzaskowski in the second circular may be small.
In Nawrocki's favour, external factors can besides work, specified as the policies of the owners Facebook, X and TikTok, their submission to active propaganda centres. And besides the success of the right – how recently in Austria, and shortly possibly in Germany, due to the fact that the wave lifts all boats.
As Prof. Antoni Dudek said, Karol Nawrocki is simply a dangerous man, and if he wins, then – as Jarosław Kaczyński promised at the unification convention with Sovereign Poland – the PiS will win the next parliamentary elections. Nawrocki is so playing for everything: impunity and freedom of successive erstwhile ministers, deputy ministers and another members of the Law and Justice Office, on which prosecutors are charged, to halt the process of restoring the regulation of law, to return to the direction chosen by erstwhile power, towards authoritarian democracy, as in Hungary.
The PiS will so be very mobilized. Will KO be able to mobilize the voters of the full coalition?
That this is simply a fight for everything, it besides seems to show the last PKW movement, which, as it turned out, has no courage make a decision that is uncomfortable for PiS. These fewer months are a chance to make a legitimate prosthesis of the ultimate Court Chamber, capable of approving the result of the election if 1 of the candidates wins by a hair.
