The self-government elections in England and Wales ended badly for the Conservative Party, which lost 474 seats, but besides not well for the Labour Party, which gained only 186 seats – this is simply a reasonably common opinion.
In post-election comments many publicists did not see what moods prevail among Labour supporters. The 30 - point advantage of the Laburists was of large interest in the YouGov poll, but the fact that the poll did not inspire enthusiasm among the Labour organization electorate has escaped commentators' attention.
Although many voters feel animosity and even anger towards the Conservative organization led by Rishi Sunak, and although they surely enjoy their imagination of the Tories being removed from power, this does not mean that their alternate proposed by the Laburists is exciting.
When we examine the results of the local elections, we will see that the Labour organization can number on much little advantage in parliamentary elections than today's polls would suggest. The voices are most likely adequate to take over, but I don't think it'll be a crushing victory. With this in mind, it is worth looking at the interior tensions the Labour organization faces and how this reflects on the attitudes of voters – due to the fact that all this can origin serious problems Keir Starmer after taking over.
A large part of this discontent stems from fears that under the leadership of the Starmer Labour Party, she changed her course to centre-right, so she will not vote over any crucial reforms needed for millions of average people who barely make ends meet. Starmer hoped for changes in fewer areas, but there were surely worker rights among them. Today, even this is uncertain and it is expected that earlier promises will be diluted.
The continuation of the policies of the current government seems likely besides erstwhile staff movements are observed – in fresh weeks more than 2 Conservative organization deserters to the Labour Party. 1 of them is Natalie Elphicke, a far-right politician – it would not be an exaggeration to say that she was creating an utmost right wing inactive with the Conservatives. This angered any Labour MPswho utilized the chance to remind of the exclusion from the Labour organization parliamentary club Diane Abbott and Jeremy Corbyn. (Abbott was suspended in 2023 for an article in "The Observer", in which she stated that black people experience racism more severely than others, and Corbyn in 2020 after campaigning for accusations of anti-Semitism – the crowd.).
The Labour organization may claim to be in favour of a fair taxation system, but fewer people believe that it will actually deal with taxation avoidance. Even little voters believe that there will be a comprehensive taxation improvement in the next term. Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Treasury in the Shadow Office, now excluded the introduction of property tax – even though The richest 1% of the British have more assets than 70% of the British population.
Starmer likes to appear as a hawk in defence matters, and the Labour organization presents as determined for military expenditure and maintaining a terribly costly atomic program. It is besides signed under unclear efforts to make Britain a planet power. This position is likely to meet the opposition of many Labour organization voters who have repeatedly opposed Britain's engagement in many failed wars over the last 25 years, including Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq and Libya, and now Gaza.
Regardless of what happens in Gaza, the Labour organization has already faced a failure of trust caused by the fact that in defence Palestinian cases, she failed. Protests against Israel's war in Gaza, organized at the time of the local elections, contributed to the fact that the Laburists did not take over all the votes that the Tories lost. If the initiators of these demonstrations organise in good time for parliamentary elections, their impact on the results may be much greater.
The issue of the climate crisis remains – increasingly burning, especially for younger voters. The Labour organization first promised to invest £28 billion in a plan of fast decarbonisation and then withdrew from it. That's why many voters now find it hard to believe Ed Miliband, the climate secretary in the shadow office, that his organization inactive wants Britain to stay "A super power of pure energy".
The Labour organization may shortly have a problem besides in its own ranks. Of the 30 organization MPs with socialist views, many like to lay low in the pre-election period for fear of suspension or exclusion. This will surely change as shortly as the results are announced. It is possible that in the elections any fresh radicals will get tickets – who knows, possibly even slip through any socialist or two. Whether Starmer builds a number or majority government, it can be safely estimated that it will deal with about 40 MPs with expressive leftist views.
Their importance will increase erstwhile the Labour organization has to deal with the first serious problems, and this will most likely happen about a year after the start of the fresh term. Fourteen years of Conservative regulation must leave behind a toxic legacy that will yet come to light. Then, if the only thing the Labour organization will gotta offer is simply a slight course change against its predecessors, the temperature of British politics will most likely rise. And this could be a chance for truly progressive ideas.
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Paul Rogers is simply a retired prof. at the Department of Peace and global Relations Studies at Bradford University and an honorary associate of Joint Service Command and Staff College. He is an global safety correspondent for openDemocracy. On the X portal: @ProfPRogers
Article published in stock openDemocracy under Creative Commons. David Krawczyk translated from English.
