Adam Leszczyński bought me a hat recently. It is not a simple headgear – it is simply a run gadget of Karol Nawrocki. I was happy for at least a fewer reasons. Not only is the slogan placed on it rather comical ("Poland must be great" – it must, has no exit or alternative), it is inactive a weak copy of Donald Trump's hats and the MEGA movement. As a product made in China and not the best quality (both in terms of performance and password) has to the first as Turkish Spider-Man Marvelovski.
Additionally, this cap may prove to be a good place. That's how it usually happens with the pompous gadgets of losing candidates. And Karol Nawrocki seems to be heading, step by step, to a spectacular defeat. Klęski, who can besides become the gravestone of the PiS – and surely 1 of the PiS that we know: a devout princehood of a genius from Żoliborz, a prominent strategist and future retired savior of Poland, Jarosław Kaczyński. I find it hard to imagine that he would keep his position in the Law and Justices if the president of the IPN had not entered the second round.
You can't beat the sand
Although we inactive have almost 2 months of run ahead of us and much can happen, we can't aid but announcement that the PiS candidate manages at most on average. The thought of referring to him as a "citizen" candidate turned out to be completely missed. This was to remove the dense burden of 8 years of PiS regulation from his shoulders and make it easier for him to dominate the competition on the right. Effect? Low recognition, even in the iron electorate of PiS and the request for public blessing of the president of IPN by Jarosław Kaczyński, as a right-wing writer.
The second step of the management of the Law and Justice Office, so in line with their multiannual strategy, does not seem to have the intended effect either. Yes, it may yet be the origin of failure. This time, the strategy of pressing people to the right from the Law and Justice to the wall begins to reflect with a ricochet. Subsequent polls show how Nawrocki is inexorably approaching the pass with Sławomir Mentzen.
So possibly alternatively of dangling a competitor's candidacy on the right, the PiS opened the way for the views of the far right to the center. alternatively of taking oxygen from Mentzen, she normalized thesis that his environment has been preaching for years. The key mistake here seems to be the fact that Nawrocki's staff felt that they already had any support from the PiS voters and Before he could safe their voices, He wanted to scope for Confederate votes before the second circular of elections. As a result, it may not be the same for Nawrocki.
Confederate Charles
Let us look at what Nawrocki said about Ukraine, vaccines or taxes and how small this is different from the Confederacy.
On the first point, Nawrocki stated that they were “European elites” responsible for the war in UkraineAnd this 1 shouldn't come in. neither to the European Union nor to NATO. According to Ukraine, “it behaves in a way Indecent and Unthankful” and treats Poland as “auxiliary holding‘, visitors from beyond the east border ‘cause problems in queues to hospitals and clinics, and the suspension of American military aid to Kiev is the consequence of "No gratitude president Volodymyr Zelenski and deficiency of ability to conduct global policy". It's all full Mention.
In the substance of chimps, the same thing. ‘I'm against it. forced vaccinations, especially of adults, but besides against forced kid vaccinations, excluding only those diseases that are a general threat to the population," Nawrocki said. He besides refused to answer the question whether he was vaccinated against Covid-19.
As for taxes, after winning the election, the PiS candidate would like to invitation Mentzen to common reduction them in Poland, and besides put in the Constitution ban on inheritance and cadastral taxes, introduce PIT 0% for familieswho have 2 or more children, rise the 2nd taxation threshold and abolish the taxation capital gains up to PLN 140 000 per year. A plan so free-market, it would not embarrass Margaret Thatcher herself, and she might as well offer him to the Confederate.
At the same time, there is simply a clear difference between the current views of Nawrocki and the erstwhile Law and Justice. Not long ago the organization and its president Andrzej Duda powerfully supported Ukraine, put on further lockdowns, promoted vaccinations and They were fighting in the name of ‘Social Poland’ with ‘Polish Liberal’. Meanwhile, the Confederate views of Nawrocki have been preaching decently since the beginning of its existence. And therefore, no substance what we think of her communicative and ideas, the right-wing electorate presents itself as more credible.
At the same time, Nawrocki's series of fatal public statements, media kitsks (new illness unit) ‘Palio’), problematic relationships with repeat offenders and neo-Nazis (‘Olo’, ‘Tracking’, ‘Big Bu’), crowned by the single-member duo Karol Nawrocki-Tadeusz Batyr, she has made the candidate PiS the object of jokes, which does not bode well the result of the younger electorate, which is the backbone of Confederate voters.
At the same time Mentzen was cleverly silent on any possible subject and trocht or scooter he avoided any questions that might have changed into a spinning plow in the soschials. In addition, given that the most dissatisfied group in their situation are people up to the age of 30, and the most happy seniorsAfter all, who are a key group of PiS supporters, it may have seemed that we were going to have an inexorable poll pass Nawrocki-Mentzen.
Unexpected Support
Unfortunately, however, liberal mainstream media went to work and sent their journalists to the age of Confederate and began to dig into the idioms he told. And these proved to be rather many due to the fact that they want paid studies, a ban on abortion – not only in the case of rape pregnancies, but besides in the case of those with lithal defects or incest – and with harder questions they start sulking like a five-year-old child. And the trend began to break slow to the detriment of Mentzen.
Why, then? Neither is the candidate with whom I would agree, nor do I believe for a penny in his, in my opinion, zero, charisma. The problem here is simply a very different conclusion that I draw from Mentzen's current polling increases than the media. If he had placed second, pushing him to the 3rd Nawrocki, it would have been the end of the Law and Justice.
In my opinion, the failure of Jarosław Kaczyński as a leader would not survive. And his end would mean that there would be a brutal fight to take over the schema, in which the written factions would bleed out. And the Confederacy could besides break, due to the fact that its leaders besides disagree in attitude towards the Law and the imagination of this possible cooperation.
At the same time, the well-known among the older Mentzen voters would not have a chance of winning in the second round. As the seniors were satisfied, there would be no stronger motivation to go to the polls. As a result, the current coalition would get a president supporting it, which would let to complete the removal of the devastating for democracy, the semi-authoritarian regulation of the Laws of 2015-2023 and give the opportunity, in a longer electoral breath, to vote somewhat more progressive laws by 2027 – on partnerships, abortions or strengthening the Euro-Federation.
However, entering the second circular of Nawrocki, given the mediocre poll results of another democratic candidates than Trzaskowski, can make this untimely Confederacy and the bullet promises of the Confederacy-PiS co-legislation possible, however, to Kaczyński and his favorite. However, Nawrocki cut hers, suffocating what can be done from the support of another right-wing candidates and Big Bu mentor However, he will sit at the Presidential Palace. I hope I'm wrong, but this is inactive possible.
