Ukraine nearly ran out of AIM-120 and AIM-9 rocket supplies to F-16 fighters and PAC-3 missiles for Patriot systems, reported on September 10 "The Economist". No exact data on the number of pieces. The effect is clear: shielding from Russian drones and rockets is weakening, and Poland is warned about the state of western reserves.
Three deficiencies in Ukrainian air defense
According to the findings of The Economist, the stocks of American AIM-120 and AIM-9, utilized by Ukrainian F-16, are close to exhaustion. These missiles are utilized to capture Russian maneuvering missiles and fresh jet drones. At the same time, there were almost no PAC-3, the most valuable ammunition for Patriot systems, designed to combat ballistic missiles. The exact size of the stocks was not revealed.
Each of these deficiencies concerns a different layer of defense. AIM-9 is simply a short-range missile, AIM-120 allows you to attack targets from a greater distance, and PAC-3 is liable for the most hard interceptions in the Patriot system. erstwhile ammunition is missing at the same time at respective levels, commanders must choose more powerfully which targets to fight and what to defend cities and infrastructure.
Russia imposes an costly war on exhaustion
Russian drone strikes, maneuvering missiles, and ballistics force the defence to proceed utilizing interceptors. Even an F-16 or Patriot battery doesn't mean much without a rocket supply. Moscow can so put force on the number of means of robbery, while the Western manufacture must supply technically advanced and costly ammunition at a rate that meets the needs of the front.
Kiev is trying to grow its own capabilities. The late presented Koral strategy is intended to combat ballistic missilesbut the fresh plan does not solve the current shortage of ammunition. Air defence is effective erstwhile production, logistics and adequately large warehouses are behind the launcher.
European deliveries buy time
Some European countries have announced the transfer of further missiles. The German Government confirmed on 9 September the deliveries of further guided missiles and air-to-air missileswithout giving the number. In turn, the Economist points to the planned transfer of respective older French-Italian SAMP/T batteries with Aster missiles by the end of 2026.
It's a essential help, but there's no basis for complacency. Ukraine is already seeking billions of euros from the European Union on Patriot missiles. Money, however, will not conjure up rockets if the production lines and supplies of NATO states do not keep up with consumption. A political declaration is easy. safety is decided by a ready-made rocket in the warehouse.
Poland must defender its own stocks
For Poland this message has a double meaning. The weakening of Ukrainian air defence increases the freedom of Russian strikes closer to our border. At the same time, shortages show that in a long conflict even the most modern sets can be disabled by besides small ammunition production.
Poland should support the opposition to Russian aggression, due to the fact that it is in our interest to be safe. However, you must not build your own policy on the presumption that allied magazines will always supplement our shortcomings. A precedence must be the supply of Polish defence, national service capabilities and participation of Polish manufacture in the production of missiles. Ukraine present shows the price of neglecting this foundation. Warsaw needs to draw conclusions before a akin account puts a crisis in NATO.
