Tbilisi protests again. all evening, for a week now, even though gas is being stopped and utilized against demonstrators. The origin of protests in front of the Georgian Parliament building is to resume work on the so-called. abroad Agents Act. If passed, media and NGOs, which receive at least 20% of abroad funding, will be registered as agents of abroad influence.
A akin bill was implemented by Russia in 2012. In the next decade, it helped to suppress independent media and NGOs. Therefore, the bill proposed by the government of the Georgian organization Dreaming by protesters is called "Russian". This analogy is reinforced by the fact that the ruling party, along with the Church, has been criticizing the promotion of European values for years.
We are seeing an incredible amount of people gathered at Rustaveli, with more people inactive arriving. Even government linked media drones can not fake the image. This is the 3rd and biggest day of demonstrations. #NoToRussianLawpic.twitter.com/Gv8gjYJDvG
— Nodar Rukhadze (@xonoda) April 17, 2024
According to the results of public opinion polls, 85–90 percent of Georgians support the pro-European course of their country. The abroad Agents Act is another motion of power against this trend. Her cautious policy towards Russia It contrasts with the social condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, everything indicates that Georgian Dreams will win again in October parliamentary elections.
What's all this about? I will effort to explain this with the PISM expert on the countries of the South Caucasus, Wojciech Wojtasiewicz.
Why the Georgian Dream Act on abroad Agents?
A akin bill the ruling organization tried to introduce as early as March last year. She withdrew from this after violent protests and criticism from Western partners. Today, he claims that the "radical opposition" has misled citizens, and the bill is needed to combat the "pseudliberal values" imposed by foreigners and advance the "transparency" of media and non-governmental organisations.
– In fact, the bill is directed against them,” comments Wojciech Wojtasiewicz of PISM. "The point is that they do not look at their hands before the autumn parliamentary elections to reduce their influence on the public opinion.
Some Georgian experts speculate that the return of the bill was the consequence of the actions of Kremlin's exposition in Georgia, or the ruling Georgian Dream and its informal leader, Oligarchy Bidzina Ivanishvili. another theories say Georgian Dreams play Russia due to the conviction of Ukraine's inevitable defeat. Wojtasiewicz approaches these hypotheses with a reserve. "It seems that the crusade against European values is primarily an effort to mobilise a conservative spiritual electorate, which is critical of LGBT+ rights before October elections.
Who's protesting the bill?
If short – young, educated, from a large centre (besides Tbilisi it is hard to talk in Georgia about specified ones). Tens of thousands of people crowded on Rustawel's avenue are impressive, the media-cultural bubble is experiencing sincere and fair growth. I don't think most Georgians care about the fresh headset. It is hard to be amazed – the statistical Georgian is surviving worse, the cost of surviving is increasing, the work is getting harder. Pandemic-war turmoil is not for the improvement of tourism – the most crucial sector of the Georgian economy – and the ideas for a fresh Georgia are missing.
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Protests have no political background – Georgian opposition remains weak and broken, and 3rd sector representatives do not embrace large politics. – The second in the polls of the United National Movement [a organization associated with erstwhile president Micheil Saakashvili – for example, cars.] has a strong negative electorate, and the another parties balance at the border of the electoral threshold, says Wojtasiewicz. – The ambition of individual leaders is more crucial than pro-state thinking. As a result, 30 to 50 percent of Georgians have been polling for years.
Is the Government of Georgia pursuing pro-Russian politics?
It's complicated. At Declarative level, Georgian Dreams from reaching power in 2012 proceed its policy of rapprochement with the West. Western money has been flowing to the country, since 2017, Georgians can travel to EU countries without a visa, and in December last year Georgia was given the position of a candidate country to the EU – under conditions that it has not yet met.
At the same time, the organization tries to keep a appropriate relation with Russia. The erstwhile colonizer remains an crucial trading partner for the Georgian economy. He is besides a business mate of the oligarch of the Bidina Ivanishvili, erstwhile Prime Minister, later the grey eminence, and now the honorary president of the organization of power. Georgia besides avoids harsh gestures against the “older brother” – for example, it did not join European sanctions against Russia despite force from the global community.
“Georgia has been spreading between Europe and Russia, but since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this is an increasingly pro-Russian policy,” Wojtasiewicz says. – The alleged abroad Agents Act is an obstructionary action on Georgia's road to the European Union. This is criticized by both Brussels and Washington, and praised by Russia. If Georgia adopts this bill, there is no way to start accession negotiations that were planned at the end of the year.
What does Georgian society say?
Generally speaking, Georgians don't like Russia. In collective memory, the northern neighbour is simply a colonizer who has been standing for centuries to the Georgian people on the road to sovereignty. Moscow supports the independency of the separatist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which from the Georgian (and international) position means the business of 20% of its land.
In addition, there was a short armed conflict between Georgia and Russia in 2008, which could extend if Russia had wanted to. The trauma of these days outweighs the nostalgia behind the USSR, typical of a large part of the older generation. Therefore, strong solidarity with Ukraine, visible in Georgian public space almost all step of the way.
However, the Georgians realize that no 1 can aid them if they face Russia. As many soldiers as they would send on NATO missions, how many volunteers wouldn't die on the Ukrainian front The West won't lift a finger to keep them safe. Therefore, the conservative conduct of the government does not rise much controversy, and leading politicians endanger Georgians with war. "They say that the EU's condition to start accession negotiations is to join anti-Russian sanctions, which would consequence in the "opening of the second front", that is, Russia's attack on Georgia," explains Wojtasiewicz. – This is simply a clever narrative, due to the fact that Georgians are watching what is happening in Ukraine, and they are afraid of specified a scenario.
Wojtasiewicz besides warns against overestimating advanced support for the EU in the polls. “Like Poles in 2004, the West associates Georgians with a better life, more money in a wallet, the anticipation of going abroad,” explains the expert. “This does not mean to support Western values in a way that respects human rights. Therefore, statistical Georgians can support Georgia's accession to the EU and at the same time support the conservative and even pro-Russian policies of the Georgian government, due to the fact that the imagination of accession is vague and life in the shadow of Russia is taking place here and now.
What's next?
Wojtasiewicz sees 2 possible scenarios for developments. The first Georgian Dream will experience the burning of the emotions behind the protests. The legislative procedure of the abroad Agents Act is extended over time – protests broke out after first reading, and the third, the last reading is not due until 17 May.
The second possible script is an escalation according to the expert. This can happen especially if Georgian Dream decides to solve the protests. Georgia's latest past shows that its citizens are able to protest to the effect, and that they respond nervously to power violence. “However, a leader would be needed for specified a smaller or larger revolution,” reserves Wojtasiewicz. – If there were negotiations between the protesters and the authorities, who would go to these negotiations from the opposition? This is the biggest problem for Georgian politics in years – there is no attractive alternate that could be counterbalanced by the ruling elite.
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Wojciech Wojtasiewicz – analyst for the South Caucasus at the Polish Institute of global Affairs. He deals with foreign, interior and social policies of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Graduated from global relations at the Institute of Political Sciences and global Relations of the Jagiellonian University. In the past, a government official, a self-government authoritative and a writer specialising in post-missile area.
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