Traczyk: I don't know if you can blame Donald Tusk for all the coalition troubles

krytykapolityczna.pl 1 year ago

Catherine Przyborska: Were you amazed by the results? After the tenth approach, KO overtakes the Law and Justice.

Adam Traczyk: By a hair, by 1 percent. fresh pre-election polls have proven better to show trend than exit poll. Donald Tusk has his triumph, he personally engaged in the mobilisation of the toughest electorate of the Civic Coalition. It was his campaign, he was the most expressive, he conducted and he won. However, the triumph came at the expense of the coalitions and the full coalition.

There were 2 passings. Not only did KO overtake the Law and Justice but the Confederacy overtake the 3rd Road, becoming the 3rd force.

The Confederacy had a very good campaign, no mishaps. Neither MP Mentzen snuck in drunk, nor anyone disputed about eating dogs, the most extremist slogans were hidden, while keeping voters from October. The Confederacy became an acceptable organization of protest for those who wanted to show the Union a yellow card. And since the Polish protest is not, contrary to appearances, very radical, the Confederacy must have softened a little. In addition, in her opposition to any of the voters, she was more credible than the PiS, due to the fact that she did not support the Green Deal.

If we look at this from a national perspective, the sum of the results of the Law and Justice and the Confederacy gives as much as the sum of the civilian Coalition, the 3rd Way and the Left. Support for democratic parties has fallen?

Although this is intellectual fun alternatively than a real analysis of the election potentials and flows, it is like converting the consequence into parliamentary seats, the 3rd Way would be under the threshold and would not enter the Sejm at all, in which the coalition of PiS and Confederacy would have the advantage. So this is simply a informing to the ruling coalition, another after the local elections. Although PO yet wins after years, which is an undeniable success, the government did not have its honeymoon. The combined results of the coalition parties in the following elections do not exceed the support of October. The question is whether we can make a model of cooperation and set out a direction for the government in which all coalitions will be found, whether Donald Tusk will effort to pacify the coalitions.

But Tusk has been pacifying the coalition for any time now. Does not the mediocre results of the 3rd Way and the Left just consequence from the fact that coalitions of the 3 ruling democratic parties have been severely weakened over the past months?

I don't know if it's always possible to blame the problem of smaller coalitions for Donald Tusk. As far as Levica is concerned, she must yet answer any essential questions. Does he want to be in the coalition or in the opposition? And if in the coalition, should left-wing ministers be primarily ministers in the Tusk government, or representatives of coalition but yet separate and independent political power? And most of all, whose business does the Left actually want to represent? In any case, the current model of operation Left I think it's exhausting, there's besides much interior contradictions. These problems won't solve for her. Donald Tusk.

And the 3rd Road? On the occasion of the elections to the Europarliament, it reveals a crack: PSL belongs to the EPP and many Polish MPs 2050 to Renew Europe. any are conservatives, others are progressives.

The 3rd Road draws voters not its program, but its kind of politics. For many summertime voters, little active in politics – and a large part of 3rd Way voters is – European elections are not very important. Their main political goals were fulfilled in October and to any degree in the April local elections. I'm certain the subject of the tactical vote will besides come back, due to the fact that a large proportion of the voters in October on the TD now voted on the Platform.

The 3rd Way must find a way to separate itself from the PO, which at the same time will not be a strong confrontational and inflammatory dispute. specified a subject can be the modernisation of the Polish energy system, the improvement of renewable energy sources. most likely not without the impact on the 3rd Way run was the failure to usage all available tools to contact voters in fresh months, specified as the failure of a candidate or candidate to be president in Warsaw.

W Germany's attendance was 64 percent, in France 51, with us little than 40.

And this is better than in the first years of our membership of the EU, erstwhile attendance did not exceed 25%. Plus, we're in the electoral marathon, and many people are tired of constantly campaigning, so this 40% should besides be appreciated. Although, of course, they're inactive choices that fire mostly hard electorates.

That's what they say, but no 1 wants to change it, affect people. The run was negative, built on the polarization of fear, not about the future, not about what is good about the Union. This can discourage people and stay the toughest electorate. The remainder of the politicians are unnecessary?

The run for the Europarliament must be seen in the context of the electoral series that has been going on for almost a year. We started with the parliamentary elections in October, in April they were self-government and now European. They form part of a cascade of elections with a smaller and smaller, in social perception, meaning. In addition, there is natural fatigue of the material, how much can you operate in a permanent run mode? quite a few people want to get out of politics.

And the iron electorates are characterized by their top reluctance to the political competitors of their favourite parties. So the main political camps went along the line of the least opposition and fueled these fears towards their opponents. As a result, there is no affirmative message referring to the needs of "summer", average voters.

Such a tailored run did not give us a chance to conduct any real debate on the European Union, the function of Poland in the Union, the future, the resources from the KPO.

And it seems that our society would be ready for a somewhat different discussion on the European Union, from a more mature position. After 2 decades in the Commonwealth, we feel we can do more. any of our aspirations have been awakened by the rhetoric of Law and Justice, saying that we are getting up from our knees, we will co-determine what is happening to Europe. These plans, of course, have never been put into practice, but a large part of society would anticipate Poland to play a more active function in the European Union.

Politicians seem uninterested in these moods. They weren't playing for the election campaign.

Indeed, they chose to be conservative in European matters. possibly they don't appreciate society, possibly they're besides scared, or possibly they're tired of this election marathon and they're out of ideas. But this will gotta change. The first real test will most likely be what will happen with the Green Deal – what amendments will be introduced to it, but above all, how it will be told again, how its elements will be adapted to the Polish reality. The current ruling coalition can win a lot on this, but it cannot fear its own shadow.

Jarosław Kaczyński combined the slogan of getting up from his knees with an increasingly strong and increasingly apparent anti-European attitude, in which he goes to scare the Union, which is expected to take distant children, forests, land. This policy led to a decrease in support for Poland's presence in the Union by 10%. And although only in the electorate of PiS and Confederacy, the slogan "polexit" appears in public space, there is even a organization with that name that went to the Euro-Elections.

But fortunately, she received only trace support. Meanwhile, the European policy of the Law and Justice was a constant pitching, and any effort to resolve disputes constructively on the Law and Justice line – the European Commission was invalidated by interior friction within the United Right. As a result, a large part of the PiS electorate moved away, or alternatively moved distant from a position that we could call Eurorealist, to positions closer to Euroscepticism. We besides see this clearly after our investigation – more PiS voters than the Confederates agree that Poland would do better outside the European Union. In the case of PiS it is 51%, Confederations – 49%.

Time to be scared?

There's nothing to panic about. Let us look at the results of the accession referendum to the European Union, in which a small over 3 quarters of the voters voted. If we effort this on to our research, we will see that the Eurosceptic possible for flirting with the thought of polexit is oscillating about 25% of society.

Interestingly, these moods, although created by Kaczyński himself, can become a serious challenge for himself and his organization once. This is due to the fact that the PiS electorate on the Union is increasingly broken down, it spreads about half by half into people who could be enrolled in a pro-EU and anti-EU camp. possibly this drift towards more Eurosceptic positions will proceed, but possibly a more average part of the PiS electorate will be frightened by the consequences of an acute, anti-EU course.

After the election, will we learn more about the effectiveness of this course? Conservatives with the most representatives in the Euro-Parliament announce cooperation with the parties even more to the law. Does this play for the “combination” of them?

On the occasion of all subsequent European election, public opinion is threatened by the emergence of extremist forces, the anti-European right. We hear that in a moment, there will be a minute erstwhile at least 1 hand will hold the wheel. Finally, the most votes in the European Parliament are given to the parties of the centre and they have the majority. And it happened again. Will there be at least occasional cooperation with parties to the right of chadecia? Of course, this was besides the case earlier – 5 years ago Ursula von der Leyen was chosen, among others, with PiS votes. The Italian brothers Prime Minister Meloni will besides not be surrounded by a sanitary cordon – all the more so due to the fact that she put quite a few effort to be seen as a pragmatic European politician. So alternatively of scaring or flirting with the more or little utmost right, let the European mainstream focus on ensuring that EU policies receive public support and service EU citizens and citizens well. This is the best antidote to any political extremes.

**

Adam Traczyk – manager More in Common Poland, formerly co-founder of Think Tank Global.Lab. postgraduate of the Institute of global Relations of the University of Warsaw. He besides studied political sciences at the Fryderyk Wilhelm University in Bonn and Hispanic and North American studies at the Freie Universität in Berlin.

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