Katarzyna Przyborska: Government Donald Tusk He got a C in your study. Medium. due to the fact that from the voters of PiS I'm a dick, from the Confederate I'm a dick with a plus, from Left and TD 3 and from the KO 4 plus electorate. At the same time, Poles and Poles are mostly satisfied and feel safe.
Adam Traczyk: Indeed, by applying the school measurement to the results of our research, it can be concluded that the government is doing 3+, but Poles live better present than they lived a year ago – at least 4 with a plus. The economical situation is seen as better than in the end of the regulation of the Law and Justice, the quality of life has increased. possibly it's the consequence of lower inflation, marked economical acceleration, fiscal increases, plus KPOWe know that an injection of EU money will not be missed.
So it's actually beautiful good. The problem of the coalition, on the another hand, is that this improvement of the situation is not necessarily full perceived as the merit of the government.
What if I put it into segments? In your research, you separate 7 key groups: progressive inflammatorys, passive liberals, disappointed loners, uninvolved normals, satisfied localists, arrogant patriots and dedicated traditionalists. A large proportion of left-wing voters belong to the progressive inflammatory segment. average satisfaction. Similarly, the Electorate of the 3rd Way, which set up a 3 to the government.
The voters of the Left actually see impatience and disappointment, but The dominant emotion is hope. They see that this government has not yet produced the expected results in a number of respects, even with respect to the right to interrupt pregnancy or partnerships, but gives it confidence. More broadly, progressive zealots expected the most of this government, but they besides most awaited it and are most emotionally connected to it, and they justice it yet best.
In turn in the electorate of the 3rd Way, which creates a mix of centre segments, i.e. uninvolved normals, satisfied localists, disappointed loners and passive liberals, there is no broad impatience with what the government does, but there is any indifference. In October 2023, for a large part of these voters, it was crucial to put an end to the argument, the brutalization of political language, but the entering of politics with shoes into their lives. Their goal was to remove the Law and Justice from power, but they did not have a clear imagination of politics for the future. Hence their current withdrawal.
This desire to calm down was then included in the slogan “Enough fighting, forward.” However, they are not the only ones who have lost interest in politics. It is visible in all segments. If the elections were to be today, the turnout would be lower than almost 75 percent, and there would be no chance for a large pre-election march. Is this due to disappointment, or is it not possible to endure this increase for besides long? It grows and then sineloidally drops.
Let us besides remember that specified advanced attendance was not only surprising, but besides the effect of many mobilization campaigns. Today, we are returning to a natural state that is most likely besides exacerbated by the feeling of any citizens that this government may not be the best, but it does not personally endanger them. It does not push itself with politics into all aspect of life – about the right to interrupt pregnancy after judging from tv screens propaganda. any voters fought for this, throwing their voice into the urn on October 15 – to be able to cut off from politics and now receive their prize. Finally, he has a minute of breath after the election trip. But today's decline in political interest can only be silence before the storm of the presidential election.
Can they be mobilized for presidential elections?
We don't know that yet. Just like we didn't know a fewer months before the 15th of October election, whether young women would crowd their voices into the urn. Everything depends on whether the government will show voters that it is worth defending their achievements and giving a chance for more. Many average and average politically active voters in 2019 were willing to defend the government of the Law and Justice, due to the fact that it made their lives better. Now the coalition must convince voters that it is worth defending its achievements, but besides allowing for acceleration.
If you were to advise on the election of a presidential candidate, according to what the voters expect, who would you suggest? Is it expected to be polarizing or inundating?
The perfect president combines, he is the president of all Poles, he focuses on the community. The problem is that specified a candidate has no chance of getting to the second round, due to the fact that the iron electorates of individual political camps decide that. A candidate outside the strategy – Kukiz, Hołownia or historically Tymiński – can confuse in the first round, sometimes besides set moods for the second round. But without the full collapse of 1 of the main political camps, they will not break into it, even if they could theoretically have a chance of winning – like Holownia in 2020.
The perfect candidate then electrifies, excites his own electorate, but does not necessarily polarize, due to the fact that it would besides mobilize political opponents. And in the first round, it's just crucial to have a choice not to be sentenced to little evil and be able to support a candidate or candidate representing our identity, views and visions of the future. So it is good that the discussion about 1 ruling coalition candidate has stopped. This is besides crucial for political pluralism.
And the second round?
We request a candidate who will give us assurance that he can lead us through hard times. We can see that Poles are hungry for security, although at the same time they feel safe in Poland. Moreover, the concept of safety is multi-faceted – from hard military security, through energy, migration, to economical and individual security. So it's not necessarily about individual in uniform or about raising additional fears, but about emanating confidence, about individual with a certain gravitas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
During the convention on 12 October, Rafał Trzaskowski was the first to leave after Donald Tusk, speaking the longest, talking about civilian society, civilian defence, self-government. Radosław Sikorski, on the another hand, announced a fewer details from the level of safety and development, a place in Europe – precisely what comes out in research. 2 figures are scratched – and specified conventions as the second are tests to see which 1 will play better?
Exactly so, art will be about uncovering the right balance between these soft and hard aspects of safety. It's a very interesting, correspondence duel. I think Radosław Sikorski has his best time. It does not polarize, or even gain designation of a more conservative electorate. But from the point of view of electoral mechanics, it will be crucial to mobilise not only the centre-right electorate, but besides to keep a more progressive left-wing electorate at the Civic Coalition. And the perfect candidate is Rafał Trzaskowski.
And for the left-wing electorate, there's nothing worse than PiS and they'll vote for little evil. Or stay home.
Whether you enter the second round, the iron electorates decide, and whether you win in it, the ability to build a winning coalition, as a consequence of the presidential election will be decided by these tiny electorates. We saw the difference between Andrzej Duda and Rafał Trzaskowski in erstwhile elections. These are truly tiny shifts that will warrant victory.
Will Radosław Sikorski in the second circular be able to drag as many left-wing voters as Trzaskowski, or only 75%? This difference may be crucial here. On the another hand, it seems that Sikorski, even through his assertive attitude towards Ukraine, could easy attract part of the Confederate electorate. But would it be importantly more than Trzaskowski, which is almost 50%?
Who will request to be mobilised more actively? Disappointed loners, uninvolved normals and satisfied locals?
Not just to mobilize, but to convince. Uninvolved normals seldom vote, but they can appreciate the authority that guarantees them a good and peaceful life, or they can discipline the ones causing anxiety. Disappointed loners frequently look for alternatives outside of duopol. Fulfilling localists is simply a field of rivalry of centre-right forces. And the passive liberals, the section crucial to the liberal camp, due to the fact that although there's nothing to look for, the Confederacy does. For this, although according to the mediate class ethos they think it is in good speech to vote, it is essential to guarantee that they do not choose a weekend out of town alternatively or take a certificate.
Can they be active aspiracy?
You can, but it's not obvious. Passive liberals are people who are mostly focused on their individual success, career. The state should not disturb them, not interfere, but make conditions for development.
So the PO should make any strategy, have a imagination of the future written into circumstantial elements? And Radosław Sikorski, who spoke about the "triskok" of the improvement of railways and aircraft, is that what the electorate wants to hear?
This would surely aid to reduce any deficit that the current power is facing. The fact that it has a clear imagination of Poland's improvement believes little than a 3rd of the society. A small low.
So large improvement projects, like the Second Republic, is simply a recipe for success?
Such projects are visible symbols of development. In our study, Poles declare that they feel pride. In our focus investigation we frequently hear that Poles are arrogant of the infrastructure in our country. It is worth noting that improvement is not one-dimensional. erstwhile we asked Poles straight whether the government should focus primarily on large investments or improving the quality of public services, the second won the option.
So what can be done to mobilize passive liberals and disappointed loners?
Public services are more crucial for both segments. Passive liberals are individuals, they don't crave so much collective improvement symbols. Disappointed loners are Polish in turn left-behindswho endure the most from the collapse of state services due to the fact that they cannot afford private. This shows that improvement must be constantly looked holistically. The fresh airport and the fast turn are cool, but it's crucial not to lose an average man who can't wait in line to see a doctor forever.
You've looked at how perfect Poland should be in 10 years, and again it turns out that the majority in the first place replaces security. Further in order: just, democratic, law-abiding, strong, united, tolerant and respected in the world. Sounds fun. And after the Saturday conventions, it seems that politicians know these studies, due to the fact that that is the kind of Poland they presented. How is it in individual electorates?
Security is on the podium in all electorates of all parties present in the Sejm. Only in the case of the electorate of the civilian Coalition is it not in the first place, and in the third, on an equal footing with the regulation of law, democracy ceases.
And we return to our starting point – we feel safe, but we besides see a number of threats that can hamper this state. And this is simply a challenge for political elites – what will change so that nothing changes.
Did social transfers in society increase the level of aspirations? Do we inactive want to take part in the competition on the most powerful stachanist, keep chasing Germany, or are we already at the same level?
Transfers did not rise the level of aspiration, but positively influenced the level of expectations towards the state and political elite. There are no excuses anymore – you gotta deliver. As for our aspirations, we see that we are more confident, assertive, we think we have nothing to be ashamed of, we are no longer a younger brother. The question of chasing the West has been somewhat camouflaged – Germany has its CPK, then why do we not have it yet?
So Morawiecki's thought to double port handling and compete with Hamburg and Antwerp is good?
The possible of rejecting failure and complexes towards the West is good. However, it is worth that our improvement plans should be embedded in a sober assessment of reality. besides frequently in our past we've lived with mirages.
Donald Tusk pointed to migration control as a basis for reasoning about security. Are we prepared to pay for this by giving up human rights, militarization of Podlasie?
What Poles surely want for regardless of organization divisions and we see it clearly after our investigation is simply a sense of control. The feeling that there is simply a certain order in migration issues. This is not a feeling motivated by xenophobia, anti-immigrant reflexes, due to the fact that only 20% of Poles are the key precedence of our migration policy. The vast majority of Poles do not head having a mediate East or African or Muslim neighbour. What is crucial is that the planet around me is structured and predictable. Donald Tusk talked about this control, but besides about respect for migrants working in Poland, about creating conditions for integration. It's a combination on which to build trust.
However, he besides stated that the law would not return to the border until everyone knew that this way could not be passed.
The issue of the suspension of the right to asylum is undoubtedly problematic and, in my opinion, it was unnecessary. Of course, it can be argued that it is only legalization of the facts. After all, asylum applications at the border are not mostly accepted. However, although fresh investigation has shown that the Prime Minister's proposal has advanced public support, it most likely unnecessarily warmed the atmosphere. Like Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz, in harsh words criticizing law-human organizations. I realize the request to draw the public's attention to the firm and hard steps of the government, but I would like a little antagonistic speech and appreciation of the function of institutions that defend human rights. Throwing out human rights defenders outside the brackets and putting them in the function that the Law and Justice have become – as an anti-state component – is highly dangerous to democracy and liberal order, for which human rights are the essence.
In Polish society there is absolutely possible to base migration policy, but besides the communicative of migration policy on both safety and compassion and respect for another man.
Is that from the research? What do you base this optimistic conclusion on?
When we asked in our investigation what is most crucial for Poles in the issue of migration, most Poles and Poles pointed to gaining full control of who can migrate to Poland. It was 43 percent. A further 21% of respondents identified humanitarian treatment and full application of the right to asylum of people crossing the Polish border as the most crucial issue. This shows that a migration policy based on maintaining control and order and empathy can find support for the majority of the population.
What about the unfulfilled promises a year ago, like partnerships and women's rights? Does this even interest people, or have they suspended their expectations on the stake and waiting for the president to change?
The coalition electorate is waiting for this and it is surely a scratch on her image. The media has already written that the Prime Minister's office discusses the ideas of combining presidential elections with the abortion referendum. It would be an effort to escape forward and mobilize the electorate. We can see that the subject of abortion is rapidly transferred by the society to the private sphere and requires a renewed political inflamation. The same was the case before the elections a year ago, as evidenced by many professional campaigns aimed at women. Now the Prime Minister could say: in the Sejm it failed, president Duda would have blocked it anyway, but let's do it together – in a referendum and choosing a fresh head of state who will sign the applicable bill. This tactic, of course, is not risk-free and flawed, but can be tempting.
Your investigation shows that the most common emotion towards government in the full society is disappointment, but it is the hope that follows. Besides, anger, impatience. What made you feel that way? And who do they belong to erstwhile they're mostly broken into segments?
Disappointment is primarily the emotion of the electorate of Law and Justice. In coalition electorates, a sense of hope dominates, and this applies to all the coalition parties. Hope is an emotion directed towards the future. This shows the government's balance sheet to date, not yet satisfactory, but it has not utilized up all the credit.
So there's a chance this society will be mobilized before the presidential election?
I'm certain it is. Besides, we see organization polls unfold. It is actual that not everyone gives a majority of the current power per mandate, but we see that even if these smaller coalitions are a small down, the civilian Coalition is decently strengthened, so voters supporting the ruling parties are more than supporters of opposition parties. It so seems that there is simply a certain strategical advantage of the camp of power over the opposition. But let's not fool ourselves, the fight for the presidency will be fierce until the last day of the campaign.
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Adam Traczyk – manager More in Common Poland, formerly co-founder of Think Tank Global.Lab. postgraduate of the Institute of global Relations of the University of Warsaw. He besides studied political sciences at Frederick Wilhelm University in Bonn, as well as Latin American and North American sciences at the Freie Universität in Berlin.
