Jakub Majmurek: Who is voting for the left in Poland today?
Bartosz Rydliński: Election results and exit poll show any social and geographical profile. The Left has clearly higher than average support in the largest cities, among the progressive mediate class from Warsaw, Poznań, Krakow, Gdańsk. This was besides seen in local and European elections – the worst elections for the left in years. The Left can besides number on the support of "Sentimental voters", from areas traditionally supporting it after 1989, specified as the Recovered Lands. We besides have islands specified as Łódź, Częstochowa or Zagłębie Dąbrowskie.
What about the social profile of the left voter? Thomas Piketty He noted that the left in Western Europe is becoming an increasingly "Braminian" formation, representing a better educated part of society. Can we besides observe this in Poland?
To a large extent, yes. Let's look at the 2023 exit poll again. In what category did the left have the top support? Among the employees of administration and services – 22 percent, then among directors, managers and specialists – nearly 19%. But among workers of 5.6 percent and among farmers of 1.6 percent. So here's a crack in support between the mediate class and the folk class.
The same can be seen if we consider the educational factor. The Left is present a organization of "educations", people with at least a bachelor's degree are 53 percent of its voters. Among those with basic education, her support is just over 2%. So he has an educated and comparatively wealthy electorate. This was evident in the focus studies we conducted in Warsaw and Włocławek, looking at the motivations of left-wing voters. erstwhile asked why they supported it, voters frequently pointed to human rights issues, "worldview", not economical issues.
Since erstwhile can we observe the crack between the left and the folk class? It was already visible in 2019.
I tried to capture this trend in my earlier survey – Socialism without people – And I found him in a 2005 CBOS poll. In this study, a large group, due to the fact that 25%, voters defining their views as left-wing inactive declares their willingness to vote for the SLD, but already 24% of respondents declared their willingness to vote for the future government coalition: the Law and Justice, Self-defense and LPR. This separation is besides visible at the same minute in election geography. In 2005, the Left recorded the biggest losses in areas affected by industrial decline in the 1990s, in places specified as Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship.
Thus the 2001-2005 word of office, governments Miller and Belki, this is the period during which the Polish folk class wave their hand to the left and recognizes that from now on its organization will be Law and Justice. In 2005, PiS had not yet been able to handle the needs of the folk class. He only learned that in the 2015 campaign. He had previously constantly bid with the PO for taxation cuts and a inexpensive state.
How does the folk class view the left today?
Depends which one. In the survey Separation or divorce? Folk class and social democracy in Poland, which I did on behalf of the Foundation of European Progressive Studies and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, we listed 3 types of folk class: 1 from villages and tiny towns; 1 from average and large towns, yet erstwhile voters of the SLD from 2001 and Alexander Kwasniewski from 2000. There's a immense gap between these groups. The folk class from the village and tiny towns speaks the language of the Kamrat Rodaks Wojciech Olszański today.
What do you mean?
They talk about “Crazy Jews who want to regulation the world” and about Ukrainians who want to “keep Polish social.” Additionally, there is simply a kind of libertarianism, which is mainly expressed in the belief that “the state is stealing from me”.
This group is the beginning of the enemy of the left, frequently associated with it, I quote, with the "sexualization of children". We did investigation with the "Chinese Peace method" erstwhile we asked the participants in the focus group, what the left people associate with, we asked them to describe what it would look like if it were a car. The answers were that it would be a "pink melex with water cannons" – we have pink as LGBT color, melex, due to the fact that ecology and water cannons as a symbol of left-wing authoritarianism. As I realize it, the left would shoot at Poles fighting for their sovereignty.
How is the folk class from larger centres different from this group?
She frequently does not own her apartment, has problems with the stableness of employment, but besides watches TVN24, listens to Onetu podcasts, draws news from political mainstream. This part of the folk class is not as hostile to the left as the erstwhile group, but it is pointed out, for example, by post-communist pedigree. erstwhile asked what kind of car the left would be, the surveyers in this group indicate a trabant or a polonaise.
This post-communist baggage is simply a barrier to voting through this group on the left?
He is surely 1 of the disheartening factors. A much more affirmative image of the left has its erstwhile voters from 2000 and 2001. They see her as a advocate for Europe, for world-view freedom – this electorate enjoys an anti-cleric sash of the left.
Then why don't these voters vote left any longer?
Because they want to vote stronger. For individual who gives the best chance of disposing of the power of the Law and Justice – a formation in their knowing of clerical, nationalist and anti-European, who besides spends money.
This last 1 bothers erstwhile left-wing voters from the folk class?
The folk class does not like to “give money through the state”, although it frequently benefits itself. The most common reason for voting on KO was a tactical argument – we support who has the best chance of defeating PiS. He besides returned in another study, which we did in autumn 2023 in Jelenia Góra, the capital of the constituency, where the left traditionally had much higher support than the national average, already after the election, among its voters from 2019, but no longer from 2023. There was besides an argument that the Left – quoting the respondents – "talks besides much about women and gays" and not adequate about social issues.
In the run of 2023, Left put large emphasis on social demands. They didn't scope her 2019 voters from Jelenia Góra?
Apparently not. What follows is that, as we did from the study, these voters, like a large part of the folk class, do not watch and read mainstream media, and erstwhile asked about where they get their information, most frequently answer that "on the Internet". This means social media, channels where recipients search “independent information”. The left is absent in akin channels, the net conquers characters specified as Leszek Sykulski and differs right-wing shamans.
This is simply a large problem for the left, and not only for the fresh Left or the Left Together, but for the full environment. For you in Political Critics and for us in Daszyński Centre, we failed to enter the youtube-subcast niche. They effort to do this 2 Left Hands, or Jakub Dymek and Marcin Gielzak, but to change things in the political position of the left, specified channels on the net should be 50 alternatively of one. There are no left-wing groups, information bubbles, where – recalling the words of the surveyed folk class typical – 1 could look for “information in an alternative”.
So the left should make its online foiling?
Not at erstwhile filming, but learn to play populist, demagogue card. Slapping banks and developers on the occasion of credit 2 or 0 percent or trying to get most employees to work on Sunday should meet with a strong, populist response. The Confederacy frequently throws social media content signed "draw further before they remove" – the left could look at this patent, especially as there are cases in Western European countries where social media-owner platforms remove content affecting capital interests.
This, of course, should not be done by parties, but by a broad left-wing environment, specified as trade unions. specified a communicative which penetrated the mainstream managed to create, for example, a strike in Solaris. On social media, people were outraged that "Spanish owner steals Polish workers from their due increases". There should be a lot more.
Trade unions traditionally served as a transmission belt between the folk class and the left. Do they even work that way? People's class focusers say anything about relationships?
We didn't survey it, and that would be very interesting. From my own experience, as an activist of the Association of Polish Teachership, associated with OPZZ, I see that relations between unionists and the political left can be complicated. For example, members of OPZZ, completely against left-wing memory policy, make available May 1st praising graphics "soldiers cursedIt’s okay. ” I besides don't see any alliance between them and the LGBT community. all year I'm on OPZZ's first year walk and I didn't announcement rainbow flags there – I don't know whether due to the fact that I don't want their relation alone, or due to the fact that I don't want initiative from LGBT environments.
Are there OPZZ flags on the equality parade?
There must be people with the ZNP flags. The trade union environment has crucial educational work to do, for example in the field of awareness of its members, that class trade unions have antifascism in their DNA, that members of the ZNP died in Nazi death camps for being unionists.
Unions cannot, of course, tell their members who they are to vote for, but they should have continued political education about the fact that voting for the largest anti-script organization is not necessarily in their interest. 8 years of the regulation of the PO-PSL coalition truly provides examples that the PO is not the best friend of the planet of work.
Can the left even get the folk class back? From what you have said, it seems almost impossible: due to the fact that the folk class not only talks about “sexing children”, but besides “does not like publishing.”
It's gonna be a tough fight. It can be said that most of the left's socio-economic demands – greater taxation progression, bus in all municipality and train in all district, improving the quality of public services – go beyond the views of its voters today. But the left inactive raises it, and rightly so. It should besides be with the conflict to support the folk class.
You just gotta talk to her possibly a small neoliberal language of benefit. Convince her to vote for the left, due to the fact that it will pay off individually. Geography can besides be the key: the possible seems to have erstwhile provincial cities that have never found themselves after the failure of status, especially if this active the winding up of local industry.
Let's go back to examining voters whose left has lost between 2019 and 2023. The key to losing support was voting for the top anti-PiS force? Anything else contributed to the inheritance?
I will quote 1 of the respondents: “I had anticipated that there would not be besides many people to vote for the left, due to the fact that it is little and little voting, it has changed over the last fewer years, and it is essential to vote for the Law and Justice to lose, so I supported the civilian Coalition. In fact, the programme was not so different on any issues." So as we can see, next to tactical issues, there is simply a second crucial argument: the programs of KO and Left did not disagree specifically – and not only in the reception of this electorate.
The survey with voters whose left was lost between 2019 and 2023, we did utilizing the net platform, so there was no effort in the oldest voters. erstwhile the left had overrepresentation in the 60+ cohort, present the losses in this group are greatest.
What could that be?
Partially from the transformation of the SLD to the fresh Left. The word “new” sounded besides strong for older voters. There were besides many rights of women, LGBT rights, climate protection, not adequate about the "silver revolution".
There was a widow's pension.
But this is not a universal proposal for seniors. It is addressed only to those who have lost their spouses. A much better proposal would be, for example, the elder day homes. Institutions that could aid people surviving alone or even with their spouses to spend time would organise wellness care for them, but besides affect them in cultural and social circulation.
I think there are 2 more things in the bid for elder voters. The first is the memory policy: the conflict for a good memory of PRL and the dignity of people surviving in that system. If, alternatively of going on a journey to Vienna, the Left made a conference on social housing in the Millennium Settlement in Czestochowa or in the territory of Reden in Dąbrowa Górnicza, referring to experiences from the times of the Polish People's Republic, especially the days of the Games, it could scope the older generation.
Wouldn't it offend younger people, who are not necessarily acquainted with the construction of PRL?
Even if it does not associate well with them, the left inactive serves their human rights interests. The second thing she neglected erstwhile it came to older voters was to ignore Lesk Miller. Let us remember that before the 2023 elections Miller declared that he would vote for the Civic Coalition and attack the fresh Left. And he inactive has quite a few authority among any possible elder voters. This criticism was peculiarly painful when, due to wellness problems, Aleksander Kwasniewski – always loyally declaring his vote for the left – could not actively participate in the run of the left-wing coalition.
What could the left do with Miller?
To exposure the voices of another politicians associated with the best years of the SLD, as in the European elections she did with Vladimir Cimoszewicz or Mark Belka. In the campaign, which revolved so powerfully around the issue of security, it was a mistake not to scope for specified characters as Janusz Zemke or Krzysztof Janik – the first 1 would have a lot to say about the military, the second 1 Border Guard And the police.
So the Left lost voters between 2019 and 2023 due to tactical vote on stronger and neglecting seniors?
Yes, and besides due to the fact that she was incapable to withstand force and was incapable to keep an perfect separation from KO. 2 weeks before the election Vladimir Czarzasty spoke on March of the Million Hearts. He made a very good speech, 1 of the better in his career. But it did not translate into votes. The KO voters there applauded him, but they did not vote for the left.
If the left after the KPO vote had sustained force and consistently stressed that it was going its own way, it might not have translated into a better result, but it would have given it a better, more subjective position in the government coalition.
The parliamentary and European elections show that the left continues to lose voters. Why?
You can see the departure of voters in 2 directions: on the 1 hand, towards KO, on the another hand, demobilization resulting in election absency. So any left-wing voters are so upset that they don't see the point in voting. This is besides shown by the late published OKO.press studies, which show that 36% of left-wing sympathizers are not satisfied with the coalition's regulation on October 15 and feel that they do not service their interests.
Are these voters up for recovery?
They are, but the left must start a more subjective policy. Even threatening to leave the government. Symptomatic that she could scope the 3rd Road, but not the Left.
The Left, unlike the 3rd Way, or at least the PSL, has no offer of governments from the Law and Justice.
But it can make life harder for coalitionists. After the case Signalling Act Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk was treated, the full Left should go to a press conference and say she will vote against all government projects until that changes. due to the fact that the situation, erstwhile the Left's successive designs in the government are slaughtered by the KO coalition, the 3rd Way and the Confederacy, is deadly to her.
But who knows the signal bill? For the majority of voters, it's most likely a beautiful airtight issue, not explaining the extremist movement of the Left.
Wasn't the KPO airtight and abstract? After all, it was about voting on distant European money, which depended on whether this programme would be launched across Europe. The Left's occupation is to explain specified complex projects to voters. And sometimes tell the partners in government: we will not let this border to cross.
The left electorate doesn't anticipate a consistent government job?
For now, the left puts on a consistent cooperation and its support gradually declines. So reality doesn't confirm that. erstwhile support with 8 cents falls to 6 percent, this is truly the minute erstwhile all the emergency lights should light up and erstwhile there should be awareness that we request to change tactics, due to the fact that there is nothing to indicate that the 1 who brought any disasters in a row will work this time.
That part of the Left Club is in the government, and part in the opposition is not a problem?
I am not amazed by the organization together that after its demands were not included in the coalition agreement, and the information on this subject was made public, She didn't decide to join the government.. Unfortunately, Together overestimated its communicative capabilities, hoping that – as at any point in Spain – Podemos could be outside the government and partially support it, as in Portugal, the extremist left government of António Costa. Only Poland is not Spain or Portugal, Together it is much harder to explain its circumstantial position. Especially since there are no channels of communication with voters.
The problem is surely common deficiency of knowing in the club: fresh Left doesn't realize why Together is out of government and Together, why fresh Left is in it. This deficiency of knowing can lead to a division that would be deadly. Then the electoral threshold could again become a barrier to social democracy in Poland. However, I see any hope that next year the presidential elections and the Left have space to prepare the start of their candidate to sale a clear human and pro-working agenda.
The left does not endanger to repeat Robert Biedron's 2020 score?
It cannot be excluded that it will end again with 2.2 percent of the vote. But the Left has nothing to lose. She should launch an election run now and combine it with an accelerated organization legislature and the choice of fresh authorities. It is no secret that 1 of the leading possible candidates of the Left for president is the Labour Minister Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk. If she had campaigned, taking over the party, it would have been a fresh opening.
For now, there are voices from the fresh Left that the legislature and the election of fresh authorities will be held as planned in late 2025.
If the legislature is held next year after a very weak consequence in the presidential election, there may not be anything to collect.
What about the script in which fresh Left becomes part of the Civic Coalition and Together, it is increasing on the margins of the political scene with support of 1.5%?
It's a real scenario, but I believe it won't materialize. The entry of the fresh Left into the KO would be stupid and mistaken adequate to destruct 1 of the main resources of this environment: the memory of the achievements of the SLD.
Leszek Miller claimed that the creation of the fresh Left crossed that memory.
I myself was amazed at how fresh Left cut off from the memory of SLD. But Nowa Lewica is simply a organization that – as Anna Maria Żukowska erstwhile praised – has 26 1000 members, its structures, MPs, MEPs, senators and city presidents. Giving up all this civilian Coalition would be stupid.
So I hope that fresh Left activists will speak, lead to an accelerated congress, say that they do not accept besides much submission to Tusk. Especially since this submission does not translate into the effectiveness of pushing crucial matters for the left, specified as partnerships or housing for rent. After six months of government there is truly no tangible progress.
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Bartosz Rydlinski – Doctor of Social Sciences, co-founder of the Ignacy Daszyński Centre and associate of the Council of the Aleksandra Kwasniewski Foundation "Amicus Europae".
