After a firm National Unity (NN) triumph in the first circular of elections, the Le Pen organization was widely foretold to win the parliamentary majority, and the only question was whether it would be the absolute majority. However, it turned out that nationalists would be very far distant from the required 289 deputies, and that their parliamentary group would be smaller than those representing the 2 main rivals.
First, the left landed united in New People's Front (NFP) and can number on about 182 tickets. Behind her was the presidential camp, which won 168 deputies and even further nationalists with 143 members of parliament. This includes 60 conservatives and individual regionalists, and we will receive the full composition of the fresh National Assembly.
Republican Front weaker than ever
Even in the fresh polls before the second circular we could see announcements even twice the better RN consequence than the 1 that nationalists yet received. This time, the level of mobilization against the far right under the conventional Republican front was not estimated.
In most constituency, there were to be trilateral duels involving RN, NFP and centrists or conservatives, but the left immediately announced that it would retreat its candidates who had achieved 3rd results, behind nationalists' backs to support another Republican politicians. However, it was not certain that the another formations would return the favor.
Backstage, the centre politicians were to be pressured by Macro himself, urging them to retreat in favour of the left, which contradicts the alternatively popular explanation in fresh weeks of the president's plan to let right-wing radicals to regulation in order to compromise them. Macron hoped alternatively to focus the average electorate around his camp and miscalculated only partially, possibly underestimating the left and its ability to unite in a crisis situation.
French voters besides showed akin readiness, jointly and severally voting on Republican front candidates in most districts where specified cooperation took place. At the end of the day, the centred candidates from 3rd places usually gave support to the left, but respective twelve of them decided to break out, most frequently in situations where the typical of the NFP was "implified" from the Mélenchon party. Conservatives were even little loyal to the Republican front, which prevented RN from receiving additional tickets. Despite the disappointing result, Le Pen inactive managed to double the number of its deputies.
Political Geography of France
One cannot ignore the fact that nationalists one more time importantly improved their score and will join the presidential run in 2027 as 1 of the favorites. The majority of votes have been received in “France B”, i.e. the disappointed globalisation of the province, from which manufacture has risen in fresh decades and where all negative effects of the neoliberal policies of subsequent presidents have been most felt. This frustration besides strengthens the left, but not necessarily among the same fragments of the folk electorate.
Parliamentary elections have shown well that the main political division of France is mostly on the axis of the centre-periphery, but it should not be identified with the division of the rich-poor. The main urban centres clearly show the difference between wealthy districts voting for the right and liberals and the poorer ones who choose the People's Front. In the province, however, the dominance of nationalists is becoming clearer. The place of the top advancement of the RN at this point is northern France, including the belt at the border with Belgium. The erstwhile mining area utilized to be the base of communists and socialists, and now with another deindustrialized regions it falls into the embrace of nationalists.
The Left maintained its conventional bases in the Central Massif and Pyrenees, but its main bastions are large cities, with Paris and its suburbs at the head. During the election campaign, there were considerable tensions between NFP politicians from the capital and those moving on the flooded state by RN, with different opinions on election strategy. Disparities frequently resulted from responding to another groups of voters, but if the left is to win, it must reconcile the ethnically diverse electorate banlieues with residents of an abandoned province.
Coalition in exchange for withdrawing Macron's major reforms?
Following the announcement of the results of the election, the leaders of the People's Front demanded with 1 voice that the Left be entrusted with the mission of forming a fresh government, indicating that as the largest group it should have priority. The problem is that there is inactive a request to get the support of Parliament and, above all, the President, which means that we request to deal with the macronists. These in turn do not have adequate deputies to think about creating a coalition with conservatives, so they besides seem doomed to cooperate with the NFP, but easier said than done.
The left in the context of possible co-regulation with the presidential camp mentions respective conditions without which it will not agree to any arrangement. These include, among another things, the withdrawal of the controversial pension improvement and the restoration of the property taxation on large fortunes, abolished at the beginning of Macron's rule. It is besides referred to the resignation of the migration law forced respective months ago with the endorsement of the RN. In practice, this would mean withdrawing most of the reforms of the liberal administration, and this will be a hard pill to swallow.
An alternate to Macron is to usage broad presidential prerogatives and impose his own Prime Minister. To reject it, the left would gotta vote with Le Pen. This in turn would open the way for political destabilisation or further early elections, as the French Parliament itself cannot nominate its candidate for this position.
For this minute neither Macron nor NFP politicians have betrayed their more detailed plans or names of proposed prime ministers. It's hard to anticipate a fast explanation. France in the election stopped the extremist right, but she found herself in a stalemate that would not be easy to exit.
