Comparing exit polle from 2023 and 2024, 1 can see a decline in support for the Left among the electorate groups who were considered the most open to her demands: women (from 10.1 to 7.5%), youth aged 18–29 (from 17.4 to 12.7%), students and students (from 21.6 to 13.7%). In the second group, the Left took second place a year ago for KO, on Sunday she got ahead of the 3rd Road and even PiS. This may besides consequence from the fact that among the youngest voters we had a immense decline in attendance – from 70.9% to 38.6%. As it turned out, the electorate of the Left in this group was not iron at all, and the organization cannot hope that in all election he will come to her help.
The score of 6.68% is somewhat better than the 2018 consequence of the SLD (6.62%), but 5 years ago it started separately together, earning 1.57 percent, which totals 8.19%. The SLD introduced 11 provincial councillors nationwide. Now this number will be akin if not smaller. In many provinces, the Left will break down by a advanced natural electoral threshold. From the camera's point of view, it will be crucial in how many provincial councillors will be needed to build the majority – it may depend on how large a failure will be considered a consequence in the Sejm.
Price per coalition with Platform
Left pays the price for the coalition with KO – a larger organization capable of taking over her demands and electorate. Transfer of the KO to the left, which takes place at least from the judgement of the Przyłębska Court on abortion and not limited to requests referred to in our public debate as “the worldview”, leaves the Left little space. According to exit poll, all 5th leftist voter of 2023 voted for the Civic Coalition last Sunday.
On the another hand, the Left had to form a government with the Platform. She promised her constituents in the campaign. Her electorate is even more anti-scriptive than this KO and the decision not to make a government that can yet remove the Law and Justice from power would be completely incomprehensible to him. However, erstwhile you are in specified a coalition, you request to have an thought of how to separate yourself from a stronger partner and how to show voters the cause. So far, the left has been very weak with both of these things.
None of the pro-social policies of the government are "held" by the Left, associate with the leaders and leaders of this formation. In a substance as crucial to a large part of her electorate as reproductive rights, she has not yet been able to show her cause. The dispute with the 3rd Way made it alternatively clear to young voters and women that the abortion in the Sejm of this word may not change, but to return to the 1993 "compromise" regardless of how sharp the policymakers of the Left will shout at Simon Holovnia.
Left made a weak seismic campaign
The Left's run to the Seymites was simply weak. Even before the race began, the formation sent a signal that it would like to compete in them together with KO – however, Donald Tusk rejected this proposal. Thus, from the beginning the Left elector had the impression that this 1 competes in elections to the Seymites alone solely by coercion, not by having any expressive proposal of local policy at the level of voivodships.
In fact, the only message from the Left in the run to the Seymites was: where we will introduce councillors, the PiS will surely not rule. Of course, taking the Law and Justice in Małopolska or Świętokrzyski thanks to the councillor of the Left would be a change for the better, especially for these voivodships. However, as we can see, the full run could not be based on this message. Like KO, the Left assumed that the strength of the anti-scriptive emotion, revealed with specified power in October, was adequate to play itss on Sunday – however, it miscalculated, for which it would pay a much higher price than the Tusk party.
I do not know if there was a place in this run to make a strong, substantive left-wing proposal for the regions. possibly the left did not have the structures, media and another resources needed to break through with it. I know, however, that they have not tried particularly, which makes failure of the Left impossible to consider a substantive or moral victory.
Warsaw exception
The only exception in this gloomy scenery for the Left is the capital. consequence Magdalena Biejat – 15.8% and 3rd place – is the best consequence of the left-wing candidate in Warsaw since the start of Marek Borowski in 2006 (he then scored 22.61%).
The consequence of Biejat shows that at least in Warsaw the Left has its two-digit electorate, which is able to keep even in competition with a very popular president, representing the most progressive wing of the Civic Platform. The question is whether this is adequate to introduce crucial representation to the city council – here again the real electoral threshold is comparatively advanced and favours mainly the 2 largest committees.
However, the national organization cannot trust on results in one, even the largest city. Especially since even in another major cities the Left has small to boast about. In many cases, she did not even effort to exploit her possible on her own.
In Krakow Together, Łukasz Gibala supported and Nowa Lewica supported the unexpected winner Alexander Miszaliski from KO – both politicians will face in 2 weeks in the second round. Both Together and Nowa Left will most likely introduce their councillors, but it will not be as politically visible on a national scale as would be a good consequence of the left-wing candidate. In Poznań, the candidate of Nowa Lewica and the incoming candidate of the Social Committee Poznań won almost 23 percent – more than Zbigniew Czerwiński from the United Right, who will face Jacek Jaskowiak in the second round. The question is whether if 1 left-town committee had started in Poznań, his typical would not have clashed with Jaskowiak.
Apart from Warsaw, the Left can inactive boast success in Włocławek. Her Senator Krzysztof Kukucki won the first circular of presidential elections with 41.4 percent support, in the second he faced the candidate KO. Kukucki in 2019–2023 was Vice president of Włocławka, deputy to Marek Wojtkowski of KO, liable for the construction program of inexpensive housing for rent. The Left praised this program in nationwide campaigns, showing as an example that its policies could work. If Kukucki wins, it will prove that Left can succeed, co-ordinating with KO – if he can only implement his policies with a stronger partner and communicate them properly.
What's next?
What are the consequences of the Sunday results? In the short term, the Left will most likely focus on minimising losses in European elections. Starting alone, she risks not introducing any Euro MPs, so she will most likely search a joint start with the KO. The price of this agreement in June may be the further departure of voters to the KO. The question is whether Tusk would consider it worth eating a left-wing appetizer, even if it meant losing a fewer Euromandates to KO.
The results will strengthen the party's conviction Together, that she was right not to enter the government, and that it was her thought for left-wingness that was more effective than the fresh Left – which would be conducive to Biejat's success in the capital. In turn, any NL activists, discouraged by results, may start reasoning about transferring to KO.
In the long run, the Left should treat the score to the Seymites as a very serious warning. He must find another thought for himself in the government, both on a substantive and political level. Start formulating your own policies and learn to communicate them in specified a way that there is no uncertainty who they belong to.
A leadership decision may besides be necessary. Biedron-Black Zandberg Triumvirate He succeeded, unifying the "three generations of left" in 2019 and returning after 4 years of hiatus to parliament. All subsequent elections – presidential in 2020, parliamentary in 2023 and last self-government – were, however, disappointing to the Left. possibly leadership is needed more capable of mobilising key segments of the electorate – like women and young people – for the Left.
