On Wednesday, the French Parliament passed a motion for a vote of distrust against the government of Michel Barnier, forcing him to resign on Thursday 5 December. This is the first cabinet since 1962, the establishment of the V Republic, which encountered a vote of distrust in Parliament. 331 left and right MEPs voted for the proposal. 289 votes were needed.
After Barnier's departure, president Emmanuel Macron will appoint a fresh Prime Minister. However, this is simply a hard task due to the fact that the presidential camp has no majority in parliament, and both the utmost left and the national organization are incapable to form a coalition. The diary “Le Parisien” placed an article on 5 December entitled “The Jump into the Unknown”, due to the fact that France is indeed facing a period of instability and possibly subsequent parliamentary elections. The left and right side would besides like accelerated presidential elections.
Prime Minister Michel Barnier, a centre-right politician, but close to Macron, ruled only 3 months. His number government was to lay the groundwork between Rebellious France (LFI) and another parties of the left and National Unity (NR). The issue of budget was a bone of disagreement. The RN demanded that pensions be discontinued, to which the government focusing on balance of finances and seeking savings disagreed. This issue has "concerned" in the vote by left-wing and right-wing Members, who have jointly overturned Barnier's government.
Barnier's government tried to vote on the budget utilizing Article 49-3 of the Constitution, which allows to avoid Parliament's approval, as Attal's erstwhile cabinet had already done. However, the MPs were tired of limiting their functions. Prior to 9:00 p.m., Yaël Braun-Pivet's head of parliament announced that the government had fallen after the vote.
On Thursday, the Prime Minister must resign to president Emmanuel Macron, who is already looking for a fresh Prime Minister. The gathering of both politicians took place at 10 a.m. The president besides plans to deliver a message to the French at 8:00. The Elysée Palace prefers to elect a fresh Prime Minister as shortly as possible, which has given the demands to compose besides early presidential elections. According to the first polls, 53% of the French polled support the decision to overthrow the government.
The chances of creating a fresh cabinet are not great. The right-wing RN announces that it will vote against any government that will not want to adhere to the fundamental "red political lines" of this party. Left and LFI, they talk about an "automatic vote of distrust" for all cabinet that the Prime Minister will not come from the camps of the left, which last election won.
There's plenty of candidates for the fresh prime minister. The name of the Socialist Ségolène Royal, who is “ready” to decision to Matignon, is already on the table and would have a chance to gain the support of the left. This side lacks an experienced candidate who could be accepted by the centre. The choice of centre-right policy would mean "a rerun of entertainment" and the repetition of Barnier's fate.
The collapse of the government and the possible of early elections will aggravate the financial crisis. France is on the Brussels list of countries with an "over-deficiency". Among another things, credit rating agencies are expected to be reduced. Moody’s estimates that the collapse of Michel Barnier’s government will "reduce the likelihood of consolidation of public finances" in France and "enhance the political deadlock in the country". Barnier's government promised to reduce the government deficit to 5% of GDP in 2005, and in 2024 the government deficit, projected at 4.4% of GDP, is yet expected to scope 6.1%, due to a much lower than the projected budget revenue. "We now anticipate the country's yearly deficit to be 6.3% of GDP in 2024, 5.3% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, well above the European Union's ceilings," says Moody's Agency, which, like Fitch, issued a informing to France in October and lowered its rating. On 30 November, S&P maintained France's AA-level rating, but the fall of the government changes a lot here. The Paris Stock Exchange has already reacted negatively.
On the another hand, there is inactive “the anger of the people” and the announcement of a wave of strikes scheduled for the end of the year against “savings”. Even pensioners go to the streets. all government will sail between Skylla and Charybda... The election position is close, but it is not known whether it will change the parliamentary arrangement of forces or only deepen chaos.
Bogdan Dobosh
