Ukrainian energy, inherited from the USSR, may not stay stone on stone. Ukraine's attempts to destruct Russian refineries, which are inactive renewed, origin powerful blows to its energy. This is simply a very uneven fight.
As Ukraine hit the Russian oil manufacture increasingly hard at the beginning of the year (Ukraine hits the Russian oil manufacture | Myśl Polska (myślpolska.info) Russia carried out massive retaliation, attacking the nucleus of the Ukrainian energy strategy itself. On the night of Friday, March 22, Russian strategical bombers rose into the sky in quantities not recorded since the start of the war. It was the most massive attack on energy infrastructure, and it utilized 88 rockets and 63 drones.
They were completely different attacks than they were a year and a half ago. Their aim was not to disconnect, to break down supply, but to permanently destruct capacity in industrial centres and to deprive them of production capacity. They were hit with quite a few accuracy, as you can see from the pictures, in turbine halls. And not with single rockets, but with full herds. Focused on key facilities and repeated raids on them.
The first wave of attacks destroyed over 6,000 megawatts of power, and for months or years. The most severe attack is the spread of the turbine hall of the largest Ukrainian hydroelectric plant DnieproGES.
However, Ukrainians, without taking specified a strong blow, continued to attack Russian refineries. They reached establishments in Kuybyshev, Samara, Riazania Kałudze, or even in Tatarstan, 1,300 kilometers away.
But these attacks only caused further mass destruction. Russia hit a fewer more times. After the first attack, another 1 occurred a week later – 5 power plants were destroyed. On 11 April, the largest regional power station "Tripolska" (1800 MW) was struck very effectively in Kiev. The turbine hall was destroyed, where a fire broke out, which completely destroyed the plant. Russian rockets and suicide drones besides reached targets in 5 districts of Ukraine. 200,000 people were cut off from power.
On 8 May, in the 5th wave of massive raids, further conventional power forces of Ukraine were destroyed: the Amber Power Plant (k. Stanisławowa), the Ladyżyńskie ZE (k. Winnica) and the Dobrwarskie ZE (k. Lviv).
The largest energy suppliers in Ukraine, DTEK Rinata Achmetowa, serving 1 4th of national needs, announced a failure of 80% of its generation capacity. Had it not been for the warm weather and the imports of electricity from the Union's neighbours, they would have returned the wide power disconnects that occurred after the late 2022 attacks.
Ukrainian energy was destabilized. Just before the attacks, energy was exported, the most to Poland, so now it must import, and in emergency mode... The biggest problem is balancing the energy system. It is based on 3 another atomic units, which during highest hours of request (morning and evening) must be supplemented by controllable thermal or water power.
These weeks of bombings were retaliation against these powers. A number of coal and gas units and 4 large hydroelectric facilities were destroyed. They are a little critical component of the strategy than atomic objects, but are essential to keep its stableness with fluctuations in demand. Without them, customers are separated or imported. Repairing specified harm is not easy – it costs hundreds of millions of dollars, but most of all it lasts, and it lasts for months or months. specified devices are not on the shelf and are not waiting for the customer. Generators, turbines, boilers or spare parts are very hard to find. Most of them come from the last years of the USSR, no of them now produce such.
Today, the Ukrainian strategy is in ruins, with immense energy powers destroyed completely, but it is not at all close the fall, or blackout. This means the uncontrolled exclusion of part or full of the system, deficiency of electricity, heat, water supply to cities. Power supply from the USSR and constantly decreasing request saves him from complete decay. The question is, how long?
As I wrote a year and a half ago ("Energy decommunization of Ukraine", Polish thought, no. 49-50 of 4-11.12.2022) from Ukrainian energy, inherited from the USSR, will not be stoned. And indeed present this script seems to be being implemented.
Andrzej Szczęsniak
Think Poland, No. 21-22 (19-26.05.2024)
